CLIMATE ACTION PLAN - City of Urbana

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2.3 EMISSIONS FORECAST The Urbana Sustainability Advisory Commission chose to focus Urbana’s initial planning efforts on reducing emissions by the year 2020. A forecast for 2020 emissions was developed using ICLEI’s CACP software. The projected 2020 emissions are a business-as-usual forecast. The business-as-usual forecast is a depiction of the future consequences of continuing current trends in population, economy, urban development, technology and human behavior with respect to energy consumption. A business as usual forecast allows planners to estimate how emissions in the future might increase or decrease, and therefore identify the most appropriate greenhouse gas reduction strategies to help the community achieve its long-range emissions reductions goals. CACP allows for input of projected increases or decreases in various factors over the planning horizon. The 2020 emissions projections were developed utilizing data from the same sources used to develop the 2007 baseline and with growth rates developed by City staff and the Champaign County Regional Planning Commission (CCRPC). The projected figure is significantly higher than the 2007 baseline because as the population of the city grows, so does energy consumption, both in the residential and commercial sectors. TABLE 2. URBANA’S 2020 PROJECTED COMMUNITY GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY COMPARED WITH THE 2007 BASELINE INVENTORY (IN METRIC TONS CO 2 EQUIVALENT) 1 Sector Quantity 2 2007 Baseline 2020 Projection Residential energy used 135,900 153,100 Commercial energy used 156,200 184,300 Industrial energy used 118,100 149,700 Transportation energy used 110,400 118,100 Solid Waste disposed in landfills 28,100 33,600 Total 548,700 638,800 Non-Campus Population 3 34,100 42,500 Per Capita Greenhouse Gas Emissions 4 16 MT/Resident 15 MT/Resident Notes: 1 Estimates were calculated using ICLEI’s CACP software. 2 Quantities have been rounded to the nearest hundred, except as noted. 3 The City of Urbana population figure is estimated from 2000 and 2010 Census Data. University of Illinois on-campus student resident population is not included in calculating per capita emissions noted above. 4 Per-capita emissions 2007 have Baseline been and rounded 2020 Projected to the nearest Emissions whole Increase number. in a ‘Business as Usual’ Scenario 2020 +12.5% +12.8% +17.8% +17.9% +26.8% +26.6% +5.8% +13.3% +13.6% 110,100 43,000 152,000 32,300 114,500 35,200 97,900 20,200 20,100 33,500 33,600 Projected increase 2007 97,800 38,100 129,000 27,400 90,300 27,800 92,600 17,700 28,000 Baseline emissions 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 MT CO 2 e Residential Residential Commercial Commercial Industrial Industrial Electricity Gas Electricity Gas Electricity Gas Gasoline Diesel Waste Note: Figures are rounded to the nearest hundred and shown in MT CO 2 e Figure 9. 2007 Baseline Emissions and Projected 2020 Increase in Emissions Under a Business As Usual Scenario by Sector and Source City of Urbana 42
110,100 43,000 152,000 32,300 114,500 35,200 97,900 20,100 33,500 2007 2.4 97,800 38,100 129,000 27,400 EMISSIONS REDUCTION GOALS A reduction target provides a tangible goal for Urbana’s emissions reduction efforts. Urbana’s emissions reduction Residential Residential Commercial Commercial Industrial Industrial target is 25 percent below 2007 levels by 2020 and an 80 percent reduction below 2007 levels by 2050. The 25 percent target is aggressive yet achievable. This target is based on estimates of the impact of current and planned programs as well as likely future opportunities to reduce emissions. The target is in line with that set by the State of Illinois as well as targets set by other states and countries, and in legislation introduced in the US Congress. The 2020 targeted level of emissions is approximately 411,600 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MT CO 2 e). As shown in Figure 10, with business as usual and corresponding emission rates factored in, the likely reduction will have to be 227,200 MT CO 2 e. 2020 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 MT CO 2 e Electricity Gas Electricity Gas Electricity Gas Gasoline Diesel Waste Note: Figures are rounded to the nearest hundred and shown in MT CO 2 e GHG Emissions Reduction Goal: 25% below 2007 levels by 2020 Target 2020 Emissions 411,600 MT CO 2 e 90,300 27,800 Target: 25% below 2007 emissions 92,600 17,700 28,000 Total Reduction 227,200 MT CO 2 e Baseline emissions Projected increase if business as usual 638,800 MT CO 2 e 2007 Baseline 548,700 MT CO 2 e 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 MT CO 2 e Note: Figures are rounded to the nearest hundred and shown in MT CO 2 e Figure 10. Urbana 2020 - 25% Emissions Reduction Goal 1,2 Notes: 1 Estimates were calculated using ICLEI’s CACP software. 2 Quantities have been rounded to the nearest hundred, except as noted. Portland, OR - 40% below 1990 levels by the year 2030 Los Angeles, CA - 35% below 1990 levels by the year 2030 Salt Lake City, UT - 80% below 2005 by 2040 Denver, CO - Achieve 1990 levels by the year 2020 Kansas City, MO - 30% below 2000 levels by year 2020 Evanston, IL - 17% below 1990 levels by 2020 Chicago, IL - 25% below 1990 levels by 2020 Figure 11. Examples of Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets across the U.S. City of Urbana 43
Page 1 and 2: CLIMATE ACTION PLAN PHASE 1: INITIA
Page 3 and 4: A MESSAGE FROM THE MAYOR August 31,
Page 5 and 6: 5 GOALS : 15 ACTIONS THE URBANA CLI
Page 7: to reach long-term emissions reduct
Page 10 and 11: 1.1 INTRODUCTION Never in the past
Page 12 and 13: 1.2 CLIMATE CHANGE CONCEPTS A. GREE
Page 14 and 15: 1.3 THE BENEFITS OF LOCAL ACTION Ur
Page 16 and 17: 1.5 A PHASED APPROACH The phased st
Page 18 and 19: 1.7 CITY OF URBANA CLIMATE PLANNING
Page 20 and 21: 1.8 PUBLIC ENGAGEMENT In addition t
Page 22 and 23: 1.9 CURRENT PLANS D. 2004 CHAMPAIGN
Page 24 and 25: 1.10 CURRENT ACTIONS Urbana busines
Page 26 and 27: 1.10 CURRENT ACTIONS has verified a
Page 28 and 29: 1.10 CURRENT ACTIONS Urbana’s Her
Page 30 and 31: 1.10 CURRENT ACTIONS successful, wi
Page 32 and 33: 1.10 CURRENT ACTIONS D. CITY OF URB
Page 35 and 36: 2. METHODOLOGY, INVENTORY, & PROJEC
Page 37 and 38: 2.1 OVERVIEW B. UNIVERSITY OF ILLIN
Page 39 and 40: 2.2 BASELINE INVENTORY A. 2007 EMIS
Page 41: 2.2 BASELINE INVENTORY D. COMPARING
Page 45 and 46: 2.5 URBANA’S ENERGY USE C. AMEREN
Page 47: 2.5 URBANA’S ENERGY USE RECs may
Page 51 and 52: 3.1 PRIORITY ACTIONS Phase I of the
Page 53 and 54: 3.1 80% 90% EMISSIONS REDUCTION TAR
Page 55 and 56: 3.2 GOAL 1: REDUCE EMISSIONS FROM B
Page 57 and 58: 3.2 GOAL 1: REDUCE EMISSIONS FROM B
Page 59 and 60: 3.2 GOAL 2: REDUCE EMISSIONS FROM G
Page 61 and 62: 3.2 GOAL 4: PREPARE FOR CLIMATE CHA
Page 63 and 64: 3.2 GOAL 5: PURSUE COORDINATION AND
Page 65 and 66: 3.3 CONSOLIDATED IMPLEMENTATION TAB
Page 67: 3.4 FUTURE STEPS AND CHALLENGES TO
Page 70 and 71: 4.1 TABLE OF FIGURES FIGURE 1. FIGU
Page 72 and 73: 4.3 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ACS
Page 74 and 75: 4.4 APPENDIX B: SOURCES AND WARMING
Page 76 and 77: 4.4 APPENDIX C: PUBLIC INPUT SURVEY
Page 82 and 83: 4.4 APPENDIX D: PUBLIC INPUT FORMS
Page 84 and 85: 4.4 APPENDIX D: PUBLIC INPUT FORMS
Page 86 and 87: 4.4 APPENDIX E: CACP GREENHOUSE GAS
Page 88 and 89: 4.4 APPENDIX E: CACP GREENHOUSE GAS
Page 90 and 91: 4.4 APPENDIX F: POPULATION, EMPLOYM
Page 92 and 93:
4.4 APPENDIX F: POPULATION, EMPLOYM
Page 94 and 95:
4.4 APPENDIX G: STATE OF ILLINOIS E
Page 96 and 97:
4.4 APPENDIX H: $ 1,000 ENERGY CHAL
Page 98 and 99:
4.4 APPENDIX J: ENERGY AND EMISSION
Page 100 and 101:
4.4 APPENDIX J: ENERGY AND EMISSION
Page 102:
www.urbanaillinois.us/climateaction
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CLIMATE ACTION PLAN - City of Urbana

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