Market Outlook - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India

Table 2: BNP Paribas' Inflation Forecasts
Japan
UK
Sweden
Core CPI SA
Core CPI NSA
Headline CPI RPI
CPI CPIF
Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y
2009 (1) 100.3 - -1.3 100.3 - -1.3 110.8 - 2.1 213.7 - -0.5 299.7 - -0.3 191.2 - 1.9
2010 (1) 98.9 - -1.4 98.9 - -1.4 113.8 - 2.7 221.6 - 3.7 302.8 - 1.0 194.3 - 1.6
2011 (1) 98.5 - -0.4 98.5 - -0.4 115.0 - 1.0 227.9 - 2.8 311.9 - 3.0 197.7 - 1.7
Q3 2009 100.0 - -2.3 100.1 - -2.3 111.3 - 1.5 214.4 - -1.4 299.5 - -1.2 191.6 - 1.6
Q4 2009 (1) 99.7 - -1.8 99.9 - -1.8 112.1 - 2.1 216.9 - 0.6 301.3 - -0.4 193.2 - 2.3
Q1 2010 (1) 99.5 - -1.4 99.1 - -1.4 112.8 - 3.2 218.5 - 3.6 299.8 - 0.5 192.7 - 1.9
Q2 2010 (1) 98.6 - -1.8 98.7 - -1.8 113.7 - 2.8 221.3 - 4.1 301.5 - 0.6 193.7 - 1.4
Q3 2010 (1) 98.5 - -1.5 98.6 - -1.5 113.9 - 2.4 222.3 - 3.7 302.5 - 1.0 194.3 - 1.4
Q4 2010 (1) 98.9 - -0.8 99.1 - -0.8 114.7 - 2.3 224.4 - 3.4 307.5 - 2.1 196.7 - 1.8
Q1 2011 (1) 98.9 - -0.6 98.5 - -0.6 114.5 - 1.5 225.3 - 3.1 306.7 - 2.3 195.8 - 1.6
Q2 2011 (1) 98.6 - 0.0 98.7 - 0.0 115.2 - 1.3 227.7 - 2.9 310.0 - 2.8 197.0 - 1.7
Jul 09 100.1 -0.1 -2.2 100.1 -0.2 -2.2 110.9 -0.1 1.8 213.40 0.0 -1.4 298.8 -0.5 -0.9 191.1 -0.2 1.8
Aug 09 99.9 -0.2 -2.4 100.1 0.0 -2.4 111.4 0.5 1.6 214.40 0.5 -1.3 299.4 0.2 -0.8 191.5 0.2 1.9
Sep 09 100.0 0.1 -2.2 100.2 0.1 -2.3 111.5 0.1 1.1 215.30 0.4 -1.4 300.4 0.3 -1.6 192.3 0.4 1.4
Oct 09 99.8 -0.2 -2.3 100.1 -0.1 -2.2 111.7 0.2 1.5 216.00 0.3 -0.8 301.1 0.3 -1.5 193.0 0.3 1.9
Nov 09 99.8 0.0 -1.7 99.9 -0.2 -1.7 112.0 0.3 1.9 216.60 0.3 0.3 301.0 0.0 -0.7 193.0 0.0 2.3
Dec 09 (1) 99.6 -0.2 -1.4 99.7 -0.2 -1.4 112.6 0.6 2.9 218.01 0.7 2.4 301.7 0.2 0.9 193.5 0.2 2.7
Jan 10 (1) 99.6 0.0 -1.2 99.3 -0.4 -1.2 112.5 -0.1 3.5 217.36 -0.3 3.5 299.1 -0.9 0.4 192.2 -0.6 2.2
Feb 10 (1) 99.5 -0.1 -1.5 98.9 -0.4 -1.5 112.8 0.3 3.0 218.44 0.5 3.3 299.7 0.2 0.6 192.6 0.2 1.9
Mar 10 (1) 99.4 -0.1 -1.6 99.1 0.2 -1.6 113.2 0.3 3.1 219.83 0.6 4.0 300.6 0.3 0.6 193.1 0.2 1.6
Apr 10 (1) 98.6 -0.8 -2.1 98.6 -0.5 -2.1 113.4 0.2 3.0 220.76 0.4 4.4 301.4 0.3 0.7 193.7 0.3 1.6
May 10 (1) 98.6 0.0 -1.8 98.7 0.1 -1.8 113.7 0.3 2.7 221.32 0.3 4.0 301.3 0.0 0.6 193.6 0.0 1.4
Jun 10 (1) 98.6 0.0 -1.6 98.7 0.0 -1.6 113.8 0.1 2.6 221.95 0.3 4.0 301.7 0.1 0.5 193.8 0.1 1.2
Jul 10 (1) 98.5 -0.1 -1.6 98.5 -0.2 -1.6 113.3 -0.4 2.2 221.45 -0.2 3.8 300.8 -0.3 0.7 193.3 -0.3 1.2
Aug 10 (1) 98.4 -0.1 -1.5 98.6 0.1 -1.5 114.3 0.8 2.6 222.56 0.5 3.8 301.7 0.3 0.8 193.9 0.3 1.3
Sep 10 (1) 98.5 0.1 -1.5 98.7 0.1 -1.5 114.2 -0.1 2.4 222.93 0.2 3.5 305.2 1.2 1.6 195.8 0.9 1.8
Oct 10 (1) 98.8 0.3 -1.0 99.1 0.4 -1.0 114.6 0.3 2.6 223.98 0.5 3.7 307.1 0.6 2.0 196.6 0.4 1.9
Nov 10 (1) 99.0 0.2 -0.8 99.1 0.0 -0.8 114.6 0.0 2.3 224.16 0.1 3.5 307.2 0.0 2.0 196.7 0.1 1.9
Dec 10 (1) 98.9 -0.1 -0.7 99.0 -0.1 -0.7 114.9 0.3 2.0 224.97 0.4 3.2 308.4 0.4 2.2 196.6 -0.1 1.6
Updated
Next
Release
Dec 25
Dec CPI (Jan 28)
Jan 19
Jan CPI (Feb 16)
Jan 12
Jan CPI (Feb 18)
Source: BNP Paribas, (1) Forecasts
Chart 6: Japanese CPI (% y/y)
Chart 7: UK CPI (% y/y)
Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro
Inflation is likely to remain heavily in negative territory for the
foreseeable future.
Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro, BNP Paribas
Inflation surprised to the upside in December for the 16 th time in the
past 21 months. We expect CPI inflation to breach the 3% y/y
threshold in January but to moderate subsequently.
Luigi Speranza/Eoin O’Callaghan 29 January 2010
Market Mover
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