Market Outlook - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India

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Economic Calendar: 29 January - 5 February GMT Local Previous Forecast Consensus Fri 29/01 23:30 08:30 Japan CPI National y/y : Dec -1.9% -1.8% -1.7% 23:30 08:30 Core CPI National y/y : Dec -1.7% -1.4% -1.3% 23:30 08:30 CPI Tokyo y/y : Jan -2.3% -2.0% -2.1% 23:30 08:30 Core CPI Tokyo y/y : Jan -1.9% -1.8% -1.8% 23:30 08:30 Household Consumption y/y : Dec 0.7% 1.7% 1.6% 23:30 08:30 Unemployment Rate (sa) : Dec 5.2% 5.2% 5.3% 23:50 08:50 Industrial Production (Prel, sa) m/m : Dec 2.2% 3.0% 2.5% (28/01) 05:00 14:00 Housing Starts y/y : Dec -19.1% -18.5% -18.8% 00:01 00:01 UK Gfk Consumer Confidence : Jan -19 -18 -18 08:00 09:00 Spain Unemployment Rate : Q4 17.9% 17.9% 18.5% 08:00 09:00 HICP Flash y/y : Jan 0.9% 1.3% 1.2% 08:30 09:30 Eurozone Eurocoin : Jan 0.68 0.75 n/a 09:00 10:00 Bank Lending Survey : Q4 09:00 10:00 M3 y/y : Dec -0.2% -0.4% -0.5% 09:00 10:00 M3 y/y (3-Mth) : Dec 0.6% -0.1% -0.1% 10:00 11:00 Unemployment Rate : Dec 10.0% 10.0% 10.1% 10:00 11:00 HICP (Flash) y/y : Jan 0.9% 1.1% 1.2% 11:15 12:15 ECB’s Bini Smaghi Speaks in Milan 16:45 17:45 ECB’s Constancio Speaks on Law and the Financial System 09:00 10:00 Italy PPI m/m : Dec 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 09:00 10:00 PPI y/y : Dec -3.1% -1.5% -1.5% 09:00 10:00 Norway Retail Sales (sa) m/m : Dec -1.2% 0.7% 0.8% 09:00 10:00 Retail Sales (nsa) y/y : Dec 2.1% 2.9% 3.2% 10:30 11:30 Switzerland KoF Leading Indicator : Jan 1.68 1.62 1.71 13:15 08:15 US Fed’s Kohn Speaks at FDIC Conference on Interest Rate Risk 13:30 08:30 GDP (Adv, saar) q/q : Q4 2.2% 4.6% 4.6% 13:30 08:30 GDP Deflator (Adv, saar) q/q : Q4 0.4% 1.2% 1.3% 13:30 08:30 Employment Cost Index q/q : Q4 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 13:30 08:30 Employment Cost Index y/y : Q4 1.5% 1.4% n/a 14:45 09:45 Chicago PMI : Jan 58.7 57.5 57.2 14:55 09:55 Michigan Sentiment (Final) : Jan 72.5 73.9 73.0 13:30 08:30 Canada GDP m/m : Nov 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% Mon 01/02 07:45 08:45 France PPI m/m : Dec 0.2% -0.4% n/a 07:45 08:45 PPI y/y : Dec -4.5% -3.4% n/a 08:30 09:30 Switzerland PMI Manufacturing : Jan 54.6 55.5 n/a 09:00 10:00 Eurozone PMI Manufacturing (Final) : Jan 52.0 (p) 52.0 (p) 52.0 (p) 10:00 11:00 Annual GDP : 2009 09:30 09:30 UK CIPS Manufacturing : Jan 54.1 52.5 54.0 09:30 09:30 Mortgage Approvals : Dec 60.5k 60.0k 61.0k 09:30 09:30 Net Consumer Credit : Dec GBP-0.4bn GBP-0.5bn GBP-0.4bn 13:30 08:30 US Personal Income m/m : Dec 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 13:30 08:30 Personal Spending m/m : Dec 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 15:00 10:00 Construction Spending m/m : Dec -0.6% -0.5% -0.3% 15:00 10:00 ISM Manufacturing : Jan 55.9 55.5 55.6 Tue 02/02 00:30 11:30 Australia NAB Business Confidence : Dec 19 18 n/a 03:30 14:30 RBA Rate Announcement 09:00 10:00 Eurozone ECB’s Constancio Speaks 10:00 11:00 PPI m/m : Dec 0.1% -0.1% 0.0% 10:00 11:00 PPI y/y : Dec -4.4% -3.1% -3.1% Market Economics 29 January 2010 Market Mover 54 2 www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
Economic Calendar: 29 Jan - 5 Feb (cont) GMT Local Previous Forecast Consensus Wed 03/02 00:30 11:30 Australia Trade Balance : Dec AUD-1700mn AUD-2500mn n/a 09:00 10:00 Eurozone PMI Services (Final) : Jan 52.3 (p) 52.3 52.3 10:00 11:00 Retail Sales (sa) m/m : Dec -1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 10:00 11:00 Retail Sales (ca) y/y : Dec -4.0% -2.4% -2.4% 09:00 10:00 Norway Unemployment Rate (sa) : Nov 3.2% 3.3% n/a 13:00 14:00 Norges Bank Rate Announcement 09:30 09:30 UK CIPS Services : Jan 56.8 55.5 56.5 13:15 08:15 US ADP Labour Change : Jan -84k -30k -30k 15:00 10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing : Jan 50.1 51.5 51.0 15:30 10:30 EIA Oil Inventories 17:00 12:00 Fed’s Warsh Speaks at NY Association for Business Economics Thu 04/02 00:30 11:30 Australia Retail Sales m/m : Dec 1.4% 0.5% n/a 00:30 11:30 Retail Sales y/y : Dec 7.3% 3.6% n/a 11:00 12:00 Germany Factory Orders m/m : Dec 2.8% 1.0% 0.0% 11:00 12:00 Factory Orders y/y : Dec 1.3% 10.4% 9.5% 12:00 12:00 UK BoE Rate Announcement 12:00 12:00 BoE Asset Purchase Target GBP200bn GBP200bn GBP200bn 12:45 13:45 Eurozone ECB Rate Announcement 13:30 14:30 ECB Press Conference 13:30 08:30 US Non-Farm Productivity (Prel, saar) q/q : Q4 8.1% 5.2% 5.6% 13:30 08:30 Unit Labour Costs (Prel, saar) q/q : Q4 -2.5% -2.5% -2.1% 13:30 08:30 Initial Claims 470k 470k n/a 15:00 10:00 Factory Orders m/m : Dec 1.1% 3.0% 1.2% Fri 05/02 00:30 11:30 Australia RBA Policy Statement 07:45 08:45 France Trade Balance : Dec EUR-5.3bn EUR-5.5bn n/a 07:45 08:45 Budget Balance (Cumulative) : Dec EUR-56.5bn EUR-138.0bn n/a 08:00 09:00 Spain Industrial Production (wda) y/y : Dec -5.7% -2.3% n/a 09:00 10:00 Norway Manufacturing Production m/m : Dec 0.9% 0.5% n/a 09:00 10:00 Manufacturing Production y/y : Dec -3.3% -1.4% n/a 09:30 09:30 UK Input PPI (nsa) m/m : Jan 0.1% 0.8% n/a 09:30 09:30 Output PPI (nsa) y/y : Jan 3.5% 3.9% 3.7% 09:30 09:30 Output PPI (Ex-FDT, nsa) y/y : Jan 2.6% 2.6% n/a 10:00 11:00 Italy CPI (NIC, Prel) m/m : Jan 0.2% 0.0% n/a 10:00 11:00 CPI (NIC, Prel) y/y : Jan 1.0% 1.2% n/a 10:00 11:00 HICP (Prel) m/m : Jan 0.2% -1.4% n/a 10:00 11:00 HICP (Prel) y/y : Jan 1.1% 1.4% n/a 10:30 11:30 Eurozone ECB’s Liikanen Speaks in Finland 11:00 12:00 Germany Industrial Production m/m : Dec 0.7% 1.5% 0.4% 11:00 12:00 Industrial Production y/y : Dec -8.0% -2.7% -3.8% 12:00 07:00 Canada Unemployment Rate : Jan 8.5% 8.5% n/a 12:00 07:00 Payroll Jobs y/y : Jan -2.6k 15.0k n/a 13:30 08:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls (Chg) : Jan -85k 0k 27k 13:30 08:30 Unemployment Rate : Jan 10.0% 10.1% 10.0% 13:30 08:30 Average Hourly Earnings m/m : Jan 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 20:00 15:00 Consumer Credit : Dec USD-17.5bn USD-9.0bn USD-9.2bn 22:15 17:00 Fed’s Bullard Speaks at Washington University During 27-31/1 World World Economic Forum, Davos Week 1-8/2 Germany Retail Sales (BBK, Real, sa) m/m : Dec -1.1% 1.0% 1.0% Retail Sales (BBK, Real, sa) y/y : Dec -2.8% -2.4% -2.4% 2-6/2 UK Halifax House Prices m/m : Jan 0.9% 0.6% n/a Halifax House Prices (3mth) y/y : Jan 1.1% 3.6% n/a Release dates and forecasts as at c.o.b. prior to the date of publication: See Daily Economic Spotlight for any revision Source: BNP Paribas Market Economics 29 January 2010 Market Mover 55 2 www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
Page 1 and 2:
Market Economics | Interest Rate St
Page 3 and 4: GGBs and other peripherals will rem
Page 5 and 6: The subtle changes in the wording o
Page 7 and 8: US: Get It While You Can • As the
Page 9 and 10: 500,000, the months-supply level of
Page 11 and 12: France: Roaring Consumption • Ret
Page 13 and 14: should be particularly true for the
Page 15 and 16: UK Inflation: Bridging the Gap •
Page 17 and 18: eceive roughly 60/40 weight within
Page 19 and 20: 1.2% m/m in November, partly offset
Page 21 and 22: or absence of competitors in a spec
Page 23 and 24: Japan: Polarisation in Machine Tool
Page 25 and 26: Australia: The Next Step • Data r
Page 27 and 28: US: Post-FOMC Treasury Market Overv
Page 29 and 30: US: Rolling Down the Agency Spread
Page 31 and 32: US: Poor Housing Underscores MBS Su
Page 33 and 34: Fannie Mae has not discussed the in
Page 35 and 36: EUR: Timing the 20Y Point • The l
Page 37 and 38: EUR 3-5bn (new 10y) in February? Co
Page 39 and 40: JGBs: Supply Continues to Weigh •
Page 41 and 42: Table 1: BNP Paribas' Inflation For
Page 43 and 44: Table 3: BNP Paribas' Inflation For
Page 45 and 46: Pricing Date Repo Rate EUR DRI FRF
Page 47 and 48: CNY: Revaluation and FX Reserves
Page 49 and 50: domestic-demand led one is underway
Page 51 and 52: USD Bullish Signals • USD Trade W
Page 53: Currency Spot Trade Recommendations
Page 57 and 58: Key Data Preview Chart 3: Japanese
Page 59 and 60: Key Data Preview Chart 7: Change in
Page 61 and 62: Key Data Preview Chart 11: US PMI M
Page 63 and 64: Key Data Preview Chart 15: US Non-F
Page 65 and 66: Economic Calendar: 8 February - 5 M
Page 67 and 68: Next week's T-Bills Supply Date Cou
Page 69 and 70: Economic Forecasts GDP Year 2009 20
Page 71 and 72: Market Coverage Market Economics Pa
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