Market Outlook - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India

Next week's T-Bills Supply
Date Country Issues Details
29/01 UK T-Bills Mar 2010 GBP 1bn
T-Bills May 2010 GBP 2bn
T-Bills Aug 2010 GBP 1.5bn
01/02 France BTF Apr 2010 EUR 4bn
BTF Jul 2010
EUR 2.5bn
BTF Dec 2010
EUR 2.5bn
Neths DTC Mar 2010 EUR 0.25-0.75bn
DTC Apr 2010
EUR 1-2.5bn
DTC May 2010
EUR 1-2.5bn
DTC Jul 2010
EUR 1-2.5bn
US T-Bills May 2010 USD 23bn
T-Bills Aug 2010 (new) USD 26bn
FHLMC Bills 3-month & 6-month 29 Jan
02/02 Belgium TC May 2010 29 Jan
TC Jul 2010
29 Jan
US T-Bills 4-week 1 Feb
FHLB Discount Notes
03/02 Japan T-Bills May 2010 JPY 5.7tn
Sweden T-Bills May 2010 SEK 10bn
T-Bills Jun 2010 SEK 5bn
Portugal BT Jan 2011 EUR 0.5bn
FNMA Bills 3-month & 6-month 1 Feb
04/02 FHLB Discount Notes
05/02 Japan T-Bills 6-month 29 Jan
UK T-Bills 29 Jan
Sources: Treasuries, BNP Paribas
Comments and charts
• EGB gross supply will remain at the same level as
the last couple of weeks at around EUR 22.5bn, while in
10y duration-adjusted terms, it will amount to
EUR 17.2bn. Net supply will be positive as EUR 29bn of
redemptions are coming from Spain and Italy.
• Germany will tap its OBL Feb-15 for EUR 6bn on
Wednesday. On Tuesday, the Netherlands will launch a
new DSL Jul-20 (DDA) for a minimum size of EUR 5bn.
On Thursday, Spain will tap its Apr-13 bond for an
expected size around EUR 2-3bn while France will
conduct its end-of-month reopenings of the 10y &/or 15y
&/or 30y sectors.
• Outside of the eurozone, there will be two auctions
in the UK, a tap of Gilt Jun-12 for GBP 3.75bn and
Mar-18 for GBP 3bn. Japan, Canada and Sweden will
also issue paper next week.
Next week's Eurozone Redemptions
Date Country Details Amount
31/01 Spain Obligacion 4% EUR 17.2bn
01/02 Italy CCT EUR 11.3bn
04/02 Finland RFGB 3.25% EUR 0.5bn
Total Eurozone Long-term Redemption
EUR 29bn
04/02 France BTF EUR 10.1bn
Total Eurozone Short-term Redemption EUR 10.1bn
30
25
20
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Chart 1: Investors’ Net Cash Flows
(EUR bn, 10y equivalent)
Net Investors' Cash Flows
(EUR bn , 10y equivalent)
Week of Feb 1st Week of Feb 8th Week of Feb 15th Week of Feb 22nd
Chart 2: EGB Gross Supply Breakdown by
Country (EUR bn, 10y equivalent)
Germany Italy Portugal Belgium
France Spain Netherlands Austria
Finland Greece Ireland
Week of Feb 1st Week of Feb 8th Week of Feb 15th Week of Feb 22nd
Chart 3: EGB Gross Supply Breakdown by
Maturity (EUR bn, 10y equivalent)
2-3-YR 5-7-YR 10-YR >10-YR
EGBs Gross Supply (EUR bn, 10y equivalent)
15
10
5
0
Week of Feb 1st Week of Feb 8th Week of Feb 15th Week of Feb 22nd
All Charts Source: BNP Paribas
Interest Rate Strategy 29 January 2010
Market Mover, Non-Objective Research Section
67
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