Market Outlook - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India

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Chart 2: USD/CHF – Breaking Higher through Major Support USDCHF has broken sharply higher through down trendline resistance that had been in place over the 1.17 1.15 1.13 course of the past 1.11 1.1020 year. 1.0935 1.09 Pivotal resistance in the 1.0505/65 area is 1.07 being approached. A 1.05 1.0595 break above here will 1.0565 1.0450 1.0505 open upside potential 1.03 towards the 1.1020 1.01 area. 0.9920 0.99 09-Jun-09 06-Aug-09 05-Oct-09 02-Dec-09 Source: BNP Paribas GBPUSD is keeping the pressure on the near-term up trendline support. A break below here will trigger a decline towards the bottom end of the long-term trading range, where major support is placed at 1.5720/10 level. A break below 1.5710 confirms that the longterm outlook is bearish Source: BNP Paribas USDJPY pullback remains corrective and is now nearing an end. Chart 3: GBP/USD – Bottom End of the Range to be Tested 1.71 1.69 1.67 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.59 1.57 1.55 1.53 1.51 1.49 1.47 1.45 1.6745 10-Jun-09 1.7042 07-Aug-09 1.6742 06-Oct-09 Chart 4: USD/JPY – Pullback is Just a Correction 99 99.70 97.78 1.6880 1.5710 1.5830 03-Dec-09 1.6457 1.0135 27-Jan-10 28-Jan-10 A rebound from initial support at the 88.95 level provides an initial positive signal, but a break back above the 91.85 level is needed to confirm a corrective bottom, triggered a renewed bullish signal. We anticipate a resumption of the recovery. 97 95 93 91 89 87 85 93.85 10-Jun-09 91.75 07-Aug-09 92.32 87.98 84.81 06-Oct-09 03-Dec-09 88.95 93.76 28-Jan-10 Source: BNP Paribas Ian Stannard 29 January 2010 Market Mover, Non-Objective Research Section 52 www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
Currency Spot Trade Recommendations Date EUR/USD 1.3975 Sell 1.4095, stop at 1.4210, target 1.33 28 Jan 2010 GBP/USD 1.6145 Sell 1.6190, stop at 1.6390, target 1.51 28 Jan 2010 USD/CHF 1.0525 Buy 1.0460, stop 1.0360, target 1.10 28 Jan 2010 EUR/GBP 0.8660 Buy 0.8540, stop 0.8460, target 0.92 28 Jan 2010 EUR/AUD 1.5595 Short at 1.5680, lower stop to 1.5760, target 1.50 22 Jan 2010 AUD/JPY 80.50 Longs from 84.00 stopped at 83.00 28 Jan 2010 EUR/SEK 10.267 Shorts from 10.220 stopped at 10.270 22 Jan 2010 Source: BNP Paribas Ian Stannard 29 January 2010 Market Mover, Non-Objective Research Section 53 www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
Page 1 and 2: Market Economics | Interest Rate St
Page 3 and 4: GGBs and other peripherals will rem
Page 5 and 6: The subtle changes in the wording o
Page 7 and 8: US: Get It While You Can • As the
Page 9 and 10: 500,000, the months-supply level of
Page 11 and 12: France: Roaring Consumption • Ret
Page 13 and 14: should be particularly true for the
Page 15 and 16: UK Inflation: Bridging the Gap •
Page 17 and 18: eceive roughly 60/40 weight within
Page 19 and 20: 1.2% m/m in November, partly offset
Page 21 and 22: or absence of competitors in a spec
Page 23 and 24: Japan: Polarisation in Machine Tool
Page 25 and 26: Australia: The Next Step • Data r
Page 27 and 28: US: Post-FOMC Treasury Market Overv
Page 29 and 30: US: Rolling Down the Agency Spread
Page 31 and 32: US: Poor Housing Underscores MBS Su
Page 33 and 34: Fannie Mae has not discussed the in
Page 35 and 36: EUR: Timing the 20Y Point • The l
Page 37 and 38: EUR 3-5bn (new 10y) in February? Co
Page 39 and 40: JGBs: Supply Continues to Weigh •
Page 41 and 42: Table 1: BNP Paribas' Inflation For
Page 43 and 44: Table 3: BNP Paribas' Inflation For
Page 45 and 46: Pricing Date Repo Rate EUR DRI FRF
Page 47 and 48: CNY: Revaluation and FX Reserves
Page 49 and 50: domestic-demand led one is underway
Page 51: USD Bullish Signals • USD Trade W
Page 55 and 56: Economic Calendar: 29 Jan - 5 Feb (
Page 57 and 58: Key Data Preview Chart 3: Japanese
Page 59 and 60: Key Data Preview Chart 7: Change in
Page 61 and 62: Key Data Preview Chart 11: US PMI M
Page 63 and 64: Key Data Preview Chart 15: US Non-F
Page 65 and 66: Economic Calendar: 8 February - 5 M
Page 67 and 68: Next week's T-Bills Supply Date Cou
Page 69 and 70: Economic Forecasts GDP Year 2009 20
Page 71 and 72: Market Coverage Market Economics Pa

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