Market Outlook - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India

Economic Forecasts
GDP
Year 2009
2010
(% y/y) ’08 ’09 (1) ’10 (1) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 (1) Q1 (1) Q2 (1) Q3 (1) Q4 (1)
US 0.4 -2.5 2.5 -3.3 -3.8 -2.6 -0.2 2.2 2.9 2.7 2.2
Eurozone 0.5 -3.9 1.3 -5.0 -4.8 -4.0 -1.6 1.2 1.6 1.3 0.9
Japan -1.2 -5.3 1.2 -8.9 -5.8 -5.1 -1.7 1.7 1.2 0.9 0.8
World (2) 3.1 -0.9 3.7 -2.3 -2.0 -0.9 1.4 3.8 4.0 3.7 3.4
Industrial Production
Year
2009
2010
(% y/y) ’08 ’09 (1) ’10 (1) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 (1) Q1 (1) Q2 (1) Q3 (1) Q4 (1)
US -2.2 -9.7 4.1 2.0 5.6 4.6 4.2 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.4
Eurozone -1.7 -14.4 2.7 -17.7 -18.2 -15.0 -6.5 3.5 4.8 1.8 0.6
Japan -3.4 -22.3 15.6 -34.6 -27.8 -20.1 -4.7 28.1 19.2 11.5 6.9
Unemployment Rate
Year
2009 2010
(%) ’08 ’09 (1) ’10 (1) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 (1) Q1 (1) Q2 (1) Q3 (1) Q4 (1)
US 5.8 9.3 10.1 6.9 8.1 9.3 10.1 10.2 10.0 10.2 10.0
Eurozone 7.6 9.4 10.4 8.8 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.6
Japan 4.0 5.1 5.3 4.4 5.2 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2
CPI
Year
2009
2010
(% y/y) ’08 ’09 (1) ’10 (1) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 (1) Q1 (1) Q2 (1) Q3 (1) Q4 (1)
US 3.8 -0.3 2.5 -0.2 -0.9 -1.6 1.5 2.8 2.8 2.4 1.9
Eurozone 3.3 0.3 1.3 1.0 0.2 -0.4 0.4 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.5
Japan 1.1 -1.8 -1.4 -0.1 -1.0 -2.2 -2.1 -1.7 -2.1 -1.9 -0.9
Current Account
(% GDP) ’08
Year
’09 (1) ’10 (1) General Government
(% GDP)
’08
Year
’09 (1) ’10 (1)
US -4.9 -3.5 -4.4 US (4) -3.1 -11.0 -10.2
Eurozone -1.6 -0.8 -0.8 Eurozone -1.9 -6.5 -6.9
Japan 3.2 2.7 3.0 Japan -6.7 -10.6 -9.1
Interest Rate Forecasts
Interest Rate (3)
Year
2009
2010
(%) ’08 ’09 (1) ’10 (1) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 (1) Q2 (1) Q3 (1) Q4 (1)
US
Fed Funds Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
3-month Rate 1.43 0.25 0.45 1.19 0.60 0.29 0.25 0.30 0.30 0.40 0.45
2-year yield 0.77 1.14 1.30 0.80 1.12 0.95 1.14 1.00 0.90 1.15 1.30
10-year yield 2.22 3.84 3.75 2.67 3.54 3.31 3.84 3.25 3.00 3.30 3.75
2y/10y Spread (bp) 145 270 245 187 242 236 270 225 210 215 245
Eurozone
Refinancing Rate 2.50 1.00 1.00 1.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
3-month Rate 2.89 0.70 1.10 1.51 1.10 0.75 0.70 0.60 0.60 0.65 1.10
2-year yield 1.74 1.37 1.50 1.23 1.38 1.28 1.37 1.25 1.25 1.50 1.50
10-year yield 2.95 3.40 3.50 3.00 3.38 3.23 3.40 3.10 2.90 3.20 3.50
2y/10y Spread (bp) 121 203 200 177 200 195 203 185 165 170 200
Japan
O/N Call Rate 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
3-month Rate 0.74 0.46 0.35 0.65 0.56 0.54 0.46 0.45 0.45 0.40 0.35
2-year yield 0.40 0.15 0.45 0.41 0.32 0.25 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.35 0.45
10-year yield 1.18 1.30 1.70 1.35 1.36 1.31 1.30 1.40 1.50 1.60 1.70
2y/10y Spread (bp) 78 115 125 94 104 106 115 120 125 125 125
Footnotes: (1) Forecast (2) Country weights used to construct world growth are those in the IMF World Economic Outlook Update
April 2009 (3) End Period (4) Fiscal year Figures are y/y percentage change unless otherwise indicated
Source: BNP Paribas
Market Economics / Interest Rate Strategy 29 January 2010
Market Mover
69
www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com