Market Outlook - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India

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Table 2: BNP Paribas' Inflation Forecasts Japan UK Sweden Core CPI SA Core CPI NSA Headline CPI RPI CPI CPIF Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y 2009 (1) 100.3 - -1.3 100.3 - -1.3 110.8 - 2.1 213.7 - -0.5 299.7 - -0.3 191.2 - 1.9 2010 (1) 98.9 - -1.4 98.9 - -1.4 113.8 - 2.7 221.6 - 3.7 302.8 - 1.0 194.3 - 1.6 2011 (1) 98.5 - -0.4 98.5 - -0.4 115.0 - 1.0 227.9 - 2.8 311.9 - 3.0 197.7 - 1.7 Q3 2009 100.0 - -2.3 100.1 - -2.3 111.3 - 1.5 214.4 - -1.4 299.5 - -1.2 191.6 - 1.6 Q4 2009 (1) 99.7 - -1.8 99.9 - -1.8 112.1 - 2.1 216.9 - 0.6 301.3 - -0.4 193.2 - 2.3 Q1 2010 (1) 99.5 - -1.4 99.1 - -1.4 112.8 - 3.2 218.5 - 3.6 299.8 - 0.5 192.7 - 1.9 Q2 2010 (1) 98.6 - -1.8 98.7 - -1.8 113.7 - 2.8 221.3 - 4.1 301.5 - 0.6 193.7 - 1.4 Q3 2010 (1) 98.5 - -1.5 98.6 - -1.5 113.9 - 2.4 222.3 - 3.7 302.5 - 1.0 194.3 - 1.4 Q4 2010 (1) 98.9 - -0.8 99.1 - -0.8 114.7 - 2.3 224.4 - 3.4 307.5 - 2.1 196.7 - 1.8 Q1 2011 (1) 98.9 - -0.6 98.5 - -0.6 114.5 - 1.5 225.3 - 3.1 306.7 - 2.3 195.8 - 1.6 Q2 2011 (1) 98.6 - 0.0 98.7 - 0.0 115.2 - 1.3 227.7 - 2.9 310.0 - 2.8 197.0 - 1.7 Jul 09 100.1 -0.1 -2.2 100.1 -0.2 -2.2 110.9 -0.1 1.8 213.40 0.0 -1.4 298.8 -0.5 -0.9 191.1 -0.2 1.8 Aug 09 99.9 -0.2 -2.4 100.1 0.0 -2.4 111.4 0.5 1.6 214.40 0.5 -1.3 299.4 0.2 -0.8 191.5 0.2 1.9 Sep 09 100.0 0.1 -2.2 100.2 0.1 -2.3 111.5 0.1 1.1 215.30 0.4 -1.4 300.4 0.3 -1.6 192.3 0.4 1.4 Oct 09 99.8 -0.2 -2.3 100.1 -0.1 -2.2 111.7 0.2 1.5 216.00 0.3 -0.8 301.1 0.3 -1.5 193.0 0.3 1.9 Nov 09 99.8 0.0 -1.7 99.9 -0.2 -1.7 112.0 0.3 1.9 216.60 0.3 0.3 301.0 0.0 -0.7 193.0 0.0 2.3 Dec 09 (1) 99.6 -0.2 -1.4 99.7 -0.2 -1.4 112.6 0.6 2.9 218.01 0.7 2.4 301.7 0.2 0.9 193.5 0.2 2.7 Jan 10 (1) 99.6 0.0 -1.2 99.3 -0.4 -1.2 112.5 -0.1 3.5 217.36 -0.3 3.5 299.1 -0.9 0.4 192.2 -0.6 2.2 Feb 10 (1) 99.5 -0.1 -1.5 98.9 -0.4 -1.5 112.8 0.3 3.0 218.44 0.5 3.3 299.7 0.2 0.6 192.6 0.2 1.9 Mar 10 (1) 99.4 -0.1 -1.6 99.1 0.2 -1.6 113.2 0.3 3.1 219.83 0.6 4.0 300.6 0.3 0.6 193.1 0.2 1.6 Apr 10 (1) 98.6 -0.8 -2.1 98.6 -0.5 -2.1 113.4 0.2 3.0 220.76 0.4 4.4 301.4 0.3 0.7 193.7 0.3 1.6 May 10 (1) 98.6 0.0 -1.8 98.7 0.1 -1.8 113.7 0.3 2.7 221.32 0.3 4.0 301.3 0.0 0.6 193.6 0.0 1.4 Jun 10 (1) 98.6 0.0 -1.6 98.7 0.0 -1.6 113.8 0.1 2.6 221.95 0.3 4.0 301.7 0.1 0.5 193.8 0.1 1.2 Jul 10 (1) 98.5 -0.1 -1.6 98.5 -0.2 -1.6 113.3 -0.4 2.2 221.45 -0.2 3.8 300.8 -0.3 0.7 193.3 -0.3 1.2 Aug 10 (1) 98.4 -0.1 -1.5 98.6 0.1 -1.5 114.3 0.8 2.6 222.56 0.5 3.8 301.7 0.3 0.8 193.9 0.3 1.3 Sep 10 (1) 98.5 0.1 -1.5 98.7 0.1 -1.5 114.2 -0.1 2.4 222.93 0.2 3.5 305.2 1.2 1.6 195.8 0.9 1.8 Oct 10 (1) 98.8 0.3 -1.0 99.1 0.4 -1.0 114.6 0.3 2.6 223.98 0.5 3.7 307.1 0.6 2.0 196.6 0.4 1.9 Nov 10 (1) 99.0 0.2 -0.8 99.1 0.0 -0.8 114.6 0.0 2.3 224.16 0.1 3.5 307.2 0.0 2.0 196.7 0.1 1.9 Dec 10 (1) 98.9 -0.1 -0.7 99.0 -0.1 -0.7 114.9 0.3 2.0 224.97 0.4 3.2 308.4 0.4 2.2 196.6 -0.1 1.6 Updated Next Release Dec 25 Dec CPI (Jan 28) Jan 19 Jan CPI (Feb 16) Jan 12 Jan CPI (Feb 18) Source: BNP Paribas, (1) Forecasts Chart 6: Japanese CPI (% y/y) Chart 7: UK CPI (% y/y) Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro Inflation is likely to remain heavily in negative territory for the foreseeable future. Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro, BNP Paribas Inflation surprised to the upside in December for the 16 th time in the past 21 months. We expect CPI inflation to breach the 3% y/y threshold in January but to moderate subsequently. Luigi Speranza/Eoin O’Callaghan 29 January 2010 Market Mover 42 www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
Table 3: BNP Paribas' Inflation Forecasts Canada Norway Australia CPI Core CPI Headline CPI Core CPI Core Index % q/q % y/y Index % q/q % y/y Index % q/q % y/y Index % q/q % y/y Index % q/q % y/y Index % q/q % y/y 2009 114.4 0.3 113.6 1.8 125.7 2.2 118.4 2.6 167.8 - 1.8 - - 3.7 2010 (1) 116.1 1.5 115.2 1.4 128.1 1.9 120.6 1.8 172.8 - 3.0 - - 2.8 2011 (1) 117.7 1.4 116.6 1.2 131.1 2.3 122.9 2.0 178.5 - 3.3 - - 2.9 Q3 2009 114.7 0.5 -0.9 113.9 1.2 1.6 125.8 0.0 1.8 118.5 0.0 2.4 168.6 1.0 1.3 - - 3.5 Q4 2009 114.9 0.6 0.8 114.4 1.9 1.6 126.6 0.6 1.4 119.3 0.7 2.3 169.5 0.5 2.1 - - 3.4 Q1 2010 (1) 115.2 1.2 1.4 114.6 0.6 1.7 127.1 0.4 1.9 119.8 0.4 2.3 170.5 0.6 2.6 - - 3.1 Q2 2010 (1) 115.8 2.2 1.1 115.1 1.7 1.3 128.2 0.9 1.9 120.8 0.9 1.9 171.9 0.8 2.9 - - 2.7 Q3 2010 (1) 116.5 2.2 1.5 115.5 1.4 1.4 128.2 0.0 1.9 120.6 -0.2 1.7 173.7 1.0 3.0 - - 2.5 Q4 2010 (1) 116.9 1.6 1.8 115.8 1.2 1.2 129.1 0.7 2.0 121.1 0.4 1.5 175.0 0.8 3.3 - - 2.8 Q1 2011 (1) 117.3 1.2 1.8 116.2 1.2 1.4 129.6 0.4 2.0 121.4 0.3 1.4 176.2 0.7 3.4 - - 2.9 Q2 2011 (1) 117.6 0.9 1.5 116.4 1.0 1.2 131.0 1.1 2.2 122.9 1.2 1.7 177.8 0.9 3.4 - - 2.9 Updated Jan 22 Jan 11 Jan 27 Next Release Jan CPI (Feb 18) Jan CPI (Feb 10) Q1 CPI (Apr 28) Source: BNP Paribas, (1) Forecasts Chart 8: Canadian Total vs. Core CPI Chart 9: Australian CPI (% y/y) Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro, BNP Paribas After plunging to a 56-year low last July, headline inflation is already back into positive territory. However, the large amount of spare capacity and the strong CAD suggest core inflation will continue to ease well into this year. Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro, BNP Paribas Inflation is slowing, broadly in line with the RBA’s forecast. However, we believe inflation will be higher than the RBA expects at the two year ahead horizon, given the improving outlook for growth. CPI Data Calendar for the Coming Week Day GMT Economy Indicator Previous BNPP F’cast Consensus Comment Fri 29/01 23:30 Japan CPI National y/y : Dec -1.9% -1.8% -1.7% Cosmetic 23:30 Core CPI National y/y : Dec -1.7% -1.4% -1.3% rise 23:30 CPI Tokyo y/y : Jan -2.3% -2.0% -2.1% 23:30 Core CPI Tokyo y/y : Jan -1.9% -1.8% -1.8% (28/01) 08:00 Spain HICP Flash y/y : Jan 0.9% 1.3% 1.2% 10:00 Euroland HICP (Flash) y/y : Jan 0.9% 1.1% 1.2% Rebound continues Fri 05/02 10:00 Italy CPI (NIC, Prel) m/m : Jan 0.2% 0.0% n/a 10:00 CPI (NIC, Prel) y/y : Jan 1.0% 1.2% n/a 10:00 HICP (Prel) m/m : Jan 0.2% -1.4% n/a 10:00 HICP (Prel) y/y : Jan 1.1% 1.4% n/a Release dates and forecasts as at c.o.b. prior to the date of publication: See Daily Economic Spotlight for any revision Source: BNP Paribas Luigi Speranza/Eoin O’Callaghan 29 January 2010 Market Mover 43 www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
Page 1 and 2: Market Economics | Interest Rate St
Page 3 and 4: GGBs and other peripherals will rem
Page 5 and 6: The subtle changes in the wording o
Page 7 and 8: US: Get It While You Can • As the
Page 9 and 10: 500,000, the months-supply level of
Page 11 and 12: France: Roaring Consumption • Ret
Page 13 and 14: should be particularly true for the
Page 15 and 16: UK Inflation: Bridging the Gap •
Page 17 and 18: eceive roughly 60/40 weight within
Page 19 and 20: 1.2% m/m in November, partly offset
Page 21 and 22: or absence of competitors in a spec
Page 23 and 24: Japan: Polarisation in Machine Tool
Page 25 and 26: Australia: The Next Step • Data r
Page 27 and 28: US: Post-FOMC Treasury Market Overv
Page 29 and 30: US: Rolling Down the Agency Spread
Page 31 and 32: US: Poor Housing Underscores MBS Su
Page 33 and 34: Fannie Mae has not discussed the in
Page 35 and 36: EUR: Timing the 20Y Point • The l
Page 37 and 38: EUR 3-5bn (new 10y) in February? Co
Page 39 and 40: JGBs: Supply Continues to Weigh •
Page 41: Table 1: BNP Paribas' Inflation For
Page 45 and 46: Pricing Date Repo Rate EUR DRI FRF
Page 47 and 48: CNY: Revaluation and FX Reserves
Page 49 and 50: domestic-demand led one is underway
Page 51 and 52: USD Bullish Signals • USD Trade W
Page 53 and 54: Currency Spot Trade Recommendations
Page 55 and 56: Economic Calendar: 29 Jan - 5 Feb (
Page 57 and 58: Key Data Preview Chart 3: Japanese
Page 59 and 60: Key Data Preview Chart 7: Change in
Page 61 and 62: Key Data Preview Chart 11: US PMI M
Page 63 and 64: Key Data Preview Chart 15: US Non-F
Page 65 and 66: Economic Calendar: 8 February - 5 M
Page 67 and 68: Next week's T-Bills Supply Date Cou
Page 69 and 70: Economic Forecasts GDP Year 2009 20
Page 71 and 72: Market Coverage Market Economics Pa

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