Market Outlook - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India

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Treasury and SAS Issuance Calendar Daily update onto https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com, Tools & Apps, Analytical Tools, Market Calendar, Government Flows In the pipeline - Treasuries: Spain: To issue a new syndicated 15y Obligacion in February (exact date to be set) France: To consider a dollar-denominated bond issue in 2010 Germany: Reserves the right to issue foreign currency bonds, as market conditions allow Greece: Plans to issue a 10y bond via a syndicated deal (EUR 3-5bn) in February Poland: Plans to sell at least USD 1bn of dollar-denominated bonds (maturity shorter than 10y) in Q1 Portugal: New OT to be launched via syndication, maturity & timing subject to market conditions UK: To announce a further syndicated offer in Q1 in due course Finland: To issue new 5y & 10y RFGBs and to tap 4 to 5 auctions with possibly 2-3 in H1 (details announced a week prior to auctions) Neths: To issue a new 30y DSL (DDA, before the summer). No plans for inflation-linked bonds. May issue a dollar-denominated bond (in '10) Czech Rep.: Issue in euros possible and a dollar-denominated bond is under consideration Denmark: To issue a EUR 5y loan (EUR 1-2bn) in H1 '10. To open new 5y & 10y DGBs H2 '10. To launch a T-bill programme on 25 February Slovak Rep.: Plans up to EUR 1.5bn syndicated 10y before the end of Q1 During the week: UK: (Feb 15 mini tender) choice of gilt on 5 February UK: No gilt purchase operations (current target achieved). MPC to review its asset purchase programme at its February meeting (3-4 Feb) FNMA: First syndicated auction in February, details announced on 2 February Date Day Closing Country Issues Details BNPP forecasts Local GMT 02/02 Tue 12:00 03:00 Japan JGB Dec 2019 JPY 2.2tn 10:30 10:30 UK Gilt 5.25% Jun 2012 GBP 3.75bn Neths DSL Jul 2020 (DDA) (new) 29 Jan min. EUR 5bn 12:00 17:00 Canada Repurchase of 8 Cash Mgt Bonds (Jun-10 - Jun-11) CAD 1bn 03/02 Wed 11:00 10:00 Germany OBL 2.5% Feb 2015 (Series 156) EUR 6bn 10:30 10:30 UK Gilt 5% Mar 2018 GBP 3bn 12:00 17:00 Canada CAN 10-year 28 Jan 04/02 Thu 12:00 03:00 Japan JGBs 20y Auction for Enhanced-liquidity issue 81-112 JGBs 30y Auction for Enhanced-liquidity issue 3-30 JPY 0.3tn 10:30 09:30 Spain Bono 2.3% Apr 2013 1 Feb EUR 3bn 10:50 09:50 France OATs 10- &/or 15- &/or 30-year 29 Jan EUR 7.5-9bn 11:00 10:00 Sweden ILBs 3.5% Dec 2015 (# 3105) SEK 0.5bn 08/02 Mon Slovak Rep. SLOVGB 4.5% May 2026 (#206) 09/02 Tue 12:00 03:00 Japan JGB 30-year 2 Feb JPY 0.6tn 11:00 10:00 Austria RAGBs 2 Feb 10:30 10:30 UK Gilt 4.5% Sep 2034 2 Feb Neths DSL 2.75% Jan 2015 EUR 2-3bn 13:00 18:00 US Notes 3-year (new) 3 Feb USD 40bn 10/02 Wed 11:00 10:00 Germany Bund 3.25% Jan 2020 EUR 5bn 11:00 10:00 Sweden T-bonds 3 Feb SEK 3bn 10:30 10:30 Portugal OTs (To be confirmed) 4 Feb 12:00 17:00 Canada CAN 3-year 4 Feb 13:00 18:00 US Notes 10-year (new) 3 Feb USD 25bn 11/02 Thu 10:30 10:30 UK Index-Linked Gilt 1.875% Nov 2022 2 Feb 13:00 18:00 US Bond 30-year (new) 3 Feb USD 16bn 12/02 Fri 10:55 09:55 Italy 5-year BTP and possibly 15- or 30-year BTP 5 Feb 16/02 Tue 12:00 03:00 Japan JGB 5-year 9 Feb JPY 2.4tn 10:00 10:00 Ireland Gilt 9 Feb EUR 1-1.5bn 17/02 Wed 11:00 10:00 Germany Schatz Mar 2012 (new) EUR 7bn 12:00 17:00 Canada CAN 30-year 11 Feb 18/02 Thu 10:30 09:30 Spain Obligacion 4.2% Jan 2037 15 Feb 10:50 09:50 France BTANs 2- &/or 5-year 12 Feb 11:50 10:50 France OATis , OATeis, BTANeis 12 Feb 11:00 10:00 Sweden ILBs 11 Feb SEK 1bn 19/02 Fri 12:00 03:00 Japan Auction for Enhanced-liquidity 12 Feb JPY 0.6tn 22/02 Mon 12:00 11:00 Belgium OLO 15 Feb Slovak Rep. SLOVGB (to be confirmed) 13:00 18:00 US TIPS 30-year (new) 18 Feb USD 12bn 23/02 Tue 12:00 03:00 Japan JGB 20-year 16 Feb JPY 1.1tn 10:55 09:55 Italy CTZ 18 Feb Neths DSLs (Off-the-run facility) 17 Feb 13:00 18:00 US Notes 2-year (new) 18 Feb USD 44bn 24/02 Wed 10:55 09:55 Italy BTPeis 18 Feb 11:00 10:00 Sweden T-bonds 17 Feb 10:30 10:30 Portugal OTs (To be confirmed) 18 Feb 10:30 10:30 UK Gilt 3.75% Sep 2019 16 Feb Denmark DGB 4% Nov 2010 (buy back) 12:00 17:00 Canada CANi 30-year 18 Feb 13:00 18:00 US Notes 5-year (new) 18 Feb USD 42bn Sources: Treasuries, BNP Paribas Interest Rate Strategy 29 January 2010 Market Mover, Non-Objective Research Section 66 www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
Next week's T-Bills Supply Date Country Issues Details 29/01 UK T-Bills Mar 2010 GBP 1bn T-Bills May 2010 GBP 2bn T-Bills Aug 2010 GBP 1.5bn 01/02 France BTF Apr 2010 EUR 4bn BTF Jul 2010 EUR 2.5bn BTF Dec 2010 EUR 2.5bn Neths DTC Mar 2010 EUR 0.25-0.75bn DTC Apr 2010 EUR 1-2.5bn DTC May 2010 EUR 1-2.5bn DTC Jul 2010 EUR 1-2.5bn US T-Bills May 2010 USD 23bn T-Bills Aug 2010 (new) USD 26bn FHLMC Bills 3-month & 6-month 29 Jan 02/02 Belgium TC May 2010 29 Jan TC Jul 2010 29 Jan US T-Bills 4-week 1 Feb FHLB Discount Notes 03/02 Japan T-Bills May 2010 JPY 5.7tn Sweden T-Bills May 2010 SEK 10bn T-Bills Jun 2010 SEK 5bn Portugal BT Jan 2011 EUR 0.5bn FNMA Bills 3-month & 6-month 1 Feb 04/02 FHLB Discount Notes 05/02 Japan T-Bills 6-month 29 Jan UK T-Bills 29 Jan Sources: Treasuries, BNP Paribas Comments and charts • EGB gross supply will remain at the same level as the last couple of weeks at around EUR 22.5bn, while in 10y duration-adjusted terms, it will amount to EUR 17.2bn. Net supply will be positive as EUR 29bn of redemptions are coming from Spain and Italy. • Germany will tap its OBL Feb-15 for EUR 6bn on Wednesday. On Tuesday, the Netherlands will launch a new DSL Jul-20 (DDA) for a minimum size of EUR 5bn. On Thursday, Spain will tap its Apr-13 bond for an expected size around EUR 2-3bn while France will conduct its end-of-month reopenings of the 10y &/or 15y &/or 30y sectors. • Outside of the eurozone, there will be two auctions in the UK, a tap of Gilt Jun-12 for GBP 3.75bn and Mar-18 for GBP 3bn. Japan, Canada and Sweden will also issue paper next week. Next week's Eurozone Redemptions Date Country Details Amount 31/01 Spain Obligacion 4% EUR 17.2bn 01/02 Italy CCT EUR 11.3bn 04/02 Finland RFGB 3.25% EUR 0.5bn Total Eurozone Long-term Redemption EUR 29bn 04/02 France BTF EUR 10.1bn Total Eurozone Short-term Redemption EUR 10.1bn 30 25 20 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Chart 1: Investors’ Net Cash Flows (EUR bn, 10y equivalent) Net Investors' Cash Flows (EUR bn , 10y equivalent) Week of Feb 1st Week of Feb 8th Week of Feb 15th Week of Feb 22nd Chart 2: EGB Gross Supply Breakdown by Country (EUR bn, 10y equivalent) Germany Italy Portugal Belgium France Spain Netherlands Austria Finland Greece Ireland Week of Feb 1st Week of Feb 8th Week of Feb 15th Week of Feb 22nd Chart 3: EGB Gross Supply Breakdown by Maturity (EUR bn, 10y equivalent) 2-3-YR 5-7-YR 10-YR >10-YR EGBs Gross Supply (EUR bn, 10y equivalent) 15 10 5 0 Week of Feb 1st Week of Feb 8th Week of Feb 15th Week of Feb 22nd All Charts Source: BNP Paribas Interest Rate Strategy 29 January 2010 Market Mover, Non-Objective Research Section 67 www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
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Market Economics | Interest Rate St
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GGBs and other peripherals will rem
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The subtle changes in the wording o
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US: Get It While You Can • As the
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500,000, the months-supply level of
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France: Roaring Consumption • Ret
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should be particularly true for the
Page 15 and 16: UK Inflation: Bridging the Gap •
Page 17 and 18: eceive roughly 60/40 weight within
Page 19 and 20: 1.2% m/m in November, partly offset
Page 21 and 22: or absence of competitors in a spec
Page 23 and 24: Japan: Polarisation in Machine Tool
Page 25 and 26: Australia: The Next Step • Data r
Page 27 and 28: US: Post-FOMC Treasury Market Overv
Page 29 and 30: US: Rolling Down the Agency Spread
Page 31 and 32: US: Poor Housing Underscores MBS Su
Page 33 and 34: Fannie Mae has not discussed the in
Page 35 and 36: EUR: Timing the 20Y Point • The l
Page 37 and 38: EUR 3-5bn (new 10y) in February? Co
Page 39 and 40: JGBs: Supply Continues to Weigh •
Page 41 and 42: Table 1: BNP Paribas' Inflation For
Page 43 and 44: Table 3: BNP Paribas' Inflation For
Page 45 and 46: Pricing Date Repo Rate EUR DRI FRF
Page 47 and 48: CNY: Revaluation and FX Reserves
Page 49 and 50: domestic-demand led one is underway
Page 51 and 52: USD Bullish Signals • USD Trade W
Page 53 and 54: Currency Spot Trade Recommendations
Page 55 and 56: Economic Calendar: 29 Jan - 5 Feb (
Page 57 and 58: Key Data Preview Chart 3: Japanese
Page 59 and 60: Key Data Preview Chart 7: Change in
Page 61 and 62: Key Data Preview Chart 11: US PMI M
Page 63 and 64: Key Data Preview Chart 15: US Non-F
Page 65: Economic Calendar: 8 February - 5 M
Page 69 and 70: Economic Forecasts GDP Year 2009 20
Page 71 and 72: Market Coverage Market Economics Pa
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