2008_10_SRP_CornellKaraveli_Turkey

Prospects for a ‘Torn’ Turkey 53
defining context for decades to come. Neither religious conservatism nor
secularism will be wished away; both are sociologically deeply rooted, and
neither can in the short run be expected to prevail altogether over the other.
The co-existence of competing value systems, while creating tensions, also
signifies that Turkish society is inherently pluralistic, multi-culturally
heterogeneous to an extent that it is difficult to envisage that an attempt to
establish an authoritarian system – be it of a religious or secularist nature –
could succeed. Yet, religious conservatism undoubtedly has the upper hand,
and the historical trend – since the 1950s – is definitely on its side.
The election victory in 2007 suggested that the AKP was destined to fulfill a
function as the dominating party, akin to that of the Swedish social
democrats or the German Christian democrats. Just as these parties founded
their power on an ability to reach out beyond their traditional core of
socialists and religious conservatives, respectively, the Islamic conservatives
had largely managed to reconcile the left-right divide of Turkish politics,
appealing to voters of a conservative, liberal and social democratic inclination
alike. It is however an attraction that depends on a continuously successful
managerial record. The Islamic conservatives will at one point inevitably
become politically worn out, just as happened to the center-right a decade
ago. Corruption, which is as widespread among the AKP cadres as it was
during the reign of the center-right, can be expected to tarnish their image.
Indeed, the recent unraveling of the extent of corruption has not failed to
affect the standing of the AKP in opinion polls. Economic woes are sure to
exact their toll, and this is almost certain to happen within the next decade at
the latest. That would, in theory, create the opportunity for a return of the
center-right that has been the traditionally dominant force of Turkish
politics.
However, such a return would not amount to any dramatic rupture with
long-term societal and ideological trends as the center-right itself has been
instrumental in paving the way for a more religiously conservative society. A
thoroughly secular liberalism of the European kind has never succeeded in
emerging in Turkey. As the AKP to all intents and purposes has become the
trustee – although with an obviously stronger tinge of Islam – of the center-