2008_10_SRP_CornellKaraveli_Turkey
2008_10_SRP_CornellKaraveli_Turkey
2008_10_SRP_CornellKaraveli_Turkey
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60<br />
Svante E. Cornell and Halil Magnus Karaveli<br />
not necessarily to cool in strategic terms, more vulnerable to mutual<br />
misunderstandings and tensions. Both Iraq and the recent war in Georgia<br />
are examples of how <strong>Turkey</strong>’s priorities and sensibilities may deviate from<br />
those of the U.S.; in that respect, <strong>Turkey</strong> is no different from other European<br />
allies of the U.S. What risks complicating, if not undermining, the strategic<br />
relationship in the long-run is rather the differing cultural orientation of<br />
Turkish society. In fact, Turkish socio-political trends offer a paradox: those<br />
segments of society that are sociologically and culturally farthest from<br />
Western culture – the Islamic conservatives – are, as has been noted,<br />
beneficiaries of a globalization that is spearheaded by the U.S., and thus<br />
prone to be politically pro-Western at least in the short-run, while the<br />
seculars, who have traditionally been oriented towards the West, have<br />
become estranged from the U.S (and the EU) as a result of the American and<br />
European support to the Islamic conservatives. However, rather than a<br />
dominance of Islamic conservatism, it is the secular republic that would<br />
provide the Turkish-U.S-relationship with a more predictably stable ground<br />
in the long run, as it entails a continued cultural Westernization of <strong>Turkey</strong>.<br />
The major wild card in the Turkish-American relationship, of course, is the<br />
Middle East. The Iraq issue has somewhat receded since the surge succeeded<br />
in calming the domestic situation there. That said, a dissolution of Iraq in the<br />
future – and the potential independence of a Kurdish state in Northern Iraq –<br />
would be certain to bring the U.S. and <strong>Turkey</strong> to new tensions. Even more<br />
pointedly, the question of Iran and its nuclear weapons program could<br />
seriously harm <strong>Turkey</strong>’s security, as well as its relationship with the U.S., as<br />
discussed below.<br />
The Dream of Europe<br />
As <strong>Turkey</strong>’s prospects of EU membership received a lease of life in the early<br />
2000s, the prospect of Brussels replacing Washington as Ankara’s main<br />
orientation was vividly discussed. Yet the realization that <strong>Turkey</strong>’s accession<br />
to the EU remains an open question, and to that one that is likely to be<br />
cumbersome and extended at best, implied that this prospect is unlikely to<br />
materialize in the immediate future. Both inside <strong>Turkey</strong> and in the EU,<br />
strong opponents of accession have prominent positions. France and<br />
Germany, most importantly, have strong forces opposing Turkish