2008_10_SRP_CornellKaraveli_Turkey

Prospects for a ‘Torn’ Turkey 59
strategic considerations on the one hand, and the sentiments of its base,
which essentially focused on two issues: opposition by its moderate Islamist
base against an attack on a Muslim country, which intersected with
opposition by its ethnic Kurdish members against a Turkish military
presence in Kurdish-populated northern Iraq.
The Iraq war, and the effect it had on Turkey’s economy and security, was
the chief factor leading to the booming of anti-Americanism in Turkey.
Turkey saw a dramatic shift in the 1990s, with once quite high favorable
views of the United States dropping to the single digits. This was the result
of the equivalent of a “perfect storm”, as all main political forces developed
anti-American views for very different reasons. Islamists were dismayed by
the war in Iraq and the general confrontational U.S. foreign policy; most
Turks were outraged by the PKK’s resurgence and America’s perceived
unwillingness to help Turkey on this issue, in spite of growing military and
civilian casualties; while seculars and nationalists were furious with
Washington’s support for the moderate Islamist government. Nevertheless,
more detailed polls suggest that it is American policies rather than America
as such that are most denounced by Turks; this entails that America’s ratings
in Turkey could easily recover under different political conditions. 33 Indeed,
the U.S. support to Turkish military operations in Iraq in early 2008 brought
visible improvements in relations as well as perceptions of America.
U.S.-Turkish relations in the coming decade are likely to continue to follow
the main path of the past decades. A collapse in relations is unlikely. The
Turkish military remains firmly committed to the alliance with the U.S.,
and the appreciation that challenging Turkey’s basic strategic orientation
barred the way to power was decisive in the ideological-tactical evolution of
the Islamic conservatives. However, a growing Islamicization of society will
inevitably lead to a cultural estrangement of Turkey from the West in
general, with possible strategic repercussions. The common ground of shared
values which sustains the special relationship between the U.S and its
European allies will in that case be increasingly lacking in the U.S-Turkish
relationship. That will make the relationship, although likely to endure and
33 İhsan Bal, ”US Fury on Anti-Americanism in Turkey”, Journal of Turkish Weekly, 11
April 2005. [http://www.turkishweekly.net/editorial.php?id=11]