2008_10_SRP_CornellKaraveli_Turkey

Turkey in 2023: the Republic at 100
This study has sought to detail the internal as well as external challenges that
are likely to shape Turkey’s evolution over the next decade. This raises the
questions what Turkey could look like as the republic approaches its 100 th
anniversary in 2023. From the limited overview conducted in this study, a
great number of different scenarios could be derived. This study proposes
three major scenarios, which put most of their attention to the likely
domestic development, while taking into account the likely interaction of
internal politics with external and transnational challenges.
The first scenario – a more conservative Turkey – in principle constitutes the
extrapolation and continuation of the trends that have been observed during
the past decade, which have seen the crumbling of secular politics, and the
rise of a dominant religious conservatism in both society and the state. The
second – a democratic reconciliation – assumes that the AKP, like other
dominant political movements, is likely to crumble under its own weight as a
result of a sclerosis of power, leaving room for yet another redefinition of the
political scene in the direction of greater conciliation of the presently
opposing ideologies. Finally, the last scenario – a return to military
stewardship – could occur if the rift in Turkish politics deepens and an array
of factors combine to lead to the forced downfall of the Islamic conservative
leadership, most likely as a result of overreach.
Scenario One: A More Conservative Turkey
In this scenario, the republic that celebrates its 100 th anniversary is a
markedly more conservative nation than what its founder, Mustafa Kemal
Atatürk, had once envisaged. Yet, it is also a country with strong, secular
traditions that continues to set it apart among most other Muslim countries.
Turkey has by no means become an Islamic state, ruled by the Sharia. But
Islamic conservatism has become established as the dominant societal force.
The co-existence of two divergent world-views – religious conservatism and