2008_10_SRP_CornellKaraveli_Turkey

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58 Svante E. Cornell and Halil Magnus Karaveli regional issues in its constantly volatile neighborhood Indeed, Turkey is located between three hotbeds of instability: the Middle East, the Caucasus and the Balkans, and to that has had the Cyprus conflict with Greece to deal with. This complexity makes Turkey’s future foreign relations and geopolitical situation very difficult to predict, as it tends to make Turkey a reactive rather than proactive actor. Nevertheless, certain main tendencies can be extrapolated, based on the long-term trends in Turkish foreign relations. Remaining with the West? Turkey’s foreign relations are based on two major bilateral relations: those with the U.S. and the EU. While Turkey’s linkages to the Middle East and the Turkic world have gained in importance, the western orientation remains the paramount direction of Turkish foreign policy. A Strategic Bedrock: the Relationship with the United States The Turkish-U.S. relationship has been the strategic bedrock of the country for sixty years, built on strong military-to-military ties that have remained intact in spite of political changes in both countries. The relationship remains key to this day, in spite of one of the worst slumps in mutual relations in recent years. Turkey has been an important U.S. ally, within the NATOalliance since the 1950s. The Cyprus issue caused tensions in 1964 – when the U.S. stopped Turkey from intervening on the island and again in 1974, when an American arms embargo was imposed subsequent to the Turkish intervention. But it is Iraq that has given rise to the most severe crisis ever between the U.S and Turkey. The newly elected AKP government’s failure on March 1, 2003, to pass a resolution opening a northern front in the upcoming Iraq war led to a freeze in U.S.-Turkish relations. Rather than using its parliamentary majority and party discipline to push through a resolution, the AKP allowed parliamentarians to vote freely, leading the measure to fail. The Turkish military’s ambivalence also worsened its ties to Washington. As a result, Turkey lost any possible influence on the conduct of America’s war in Iraq and on the situation in that country for years to come, and hence renounced the possibility of affecting the developing situation in northern Iraq. Indeed, the AKP government was caught between
Prospects for a ‘Torn’ Turkey 59 strategic considerations on the one hand, and the sentiments of its base, which essentially focused on two issues: opposition by its moderate Islamist base against an attack on a Muslim country, which intersected with opposition by its ethnic Kurdish members against a Turkish military presence in Kurdish-populated northern Iraq. The Iraq war, and the effect it had on Turkey’s economy and security, was the chief factor leading to the booming of anti-Americanism in Turkey. Turkey saw a dramatic shift in the 1990s, with once quite high favorable views of the United States dropping to the single digits. This was the result of the equivalent of a “perfect storm”, as all main political forces developed anti-American views for very different reasons. Islamists were dismayed by the war in Iraq and the general confrontational U.S. foreign policy; most Turks were outraged by the PKK’s resurgence and America’s perceived unwillingness to help Turkey on this issue, in spite of growing military and civilian casualties; while seculars and nationalists were furious with Washington’s support for the moderate Islamist government. Nevertheless, more detailed polls suggest that it is American policies rather than America as such that are most denounced by Turks; this entails that America’s ratings in Turkey could easily recover under different political conditions. 33 Indeed, the U.S. support to Turkish military operations in Iraq in early 2008 brought visible improvements in relations as well as perceptions of America. U.S.-Turkish relations in the coming decade are likely to continue to follow the main path of the past decades. A collapse in relations is unlikely. The Turkish military remains firmly committed to the alliance with the U.S., and the appreciation that challenging Turkey’s basic strategic orientation barred the way to power was decisive in the ideological-tactical evolution of the Islamic conservatives. However, a growing Islamicization of society will inevitably lead to a cultural estrangement of Turkey from the West in general, with possible strategic repercussions. The common ground of shared values which sustains the special relationship between the U.S and its European allies will in that case be increasingly lacking in the U.S-Turkish relationship. That will make the relationship, although likely to endure and 33 İhsan Bal, ”US Fury on Anti-Americanism in Turkey”, Journal of Turkish Weekly, 11 April 2005. [http://www.turkishweekly.net/editorial.php?id=11]
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Prospects for a ‘Torn’ Turkey:
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“Prospects for a Torn Turkey: A S
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Summary In October 2008, The Turkis
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Page 80: Authors’ Bio Svante E. Cornell is
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