2008_10_SRP_CornellKaraveli_Turkey

Conclusions
Turkey’s internal and external complexity makes it inescapable that the
scenarios discussed in this study must remain speculative at best. Indeed, the
standard reaction of Turkish interlocutors being told that the authors of this
report sought to predict their country’s evolution a decade and more ahead
was a sly smile, followed by any variation of the following quip: “We hardly
know what might happen in Turkey next week.”
Indeed, given the multitude of external and internal factors – ranging from
long-term trends to individual incidents – that stand to affect Turkey’s
evolution, the mathematical probability that a series of major events will
derail any scenario remains prohibitively high. A similar study written in
1998 – when Islamists had just been defeated following the February 28, 1997,
National Security Council meeting – the idea that half a decade later, a
revamped form of more moderated Islamism would secure control over
power for the better part of a decade, buoyed by compact support from the
U.S., EU and the domestic liberal intelligentsia, would have appeared
ludicrous. Similarly, many of the assumptions underlying the analysis in this
study are likely to be overcome by unexpected events.
That said, this study has sought to identify the main trends in Turkish
society, politics and foreign policy that are likely to be the main determinants
of the way the country will look when celebrating its 100 th anniversary. All
things considered, Turkey is likely to be a more conservative and religious
country. Islamic conservatism is unlikely to have made Turkey more
Western-oriented.
Although Turkey will not have “broken” with the West strategically, the ties
between it and the West are bound to have been weakened. Turkey will most
probably not yet have entered the EU. It is likely to have continued to juggle,
uneasily, the competing regional security challenges surrounding it, some of
which (such as the Balkans) are likely to have become less problematic, while
others (such as Iran) may have tested the republican establishment severely.
Internally, its Kurdish problem is unlikely to have gone away.