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104 Beyond Ukraine. EU and Russia in Search of a New Relation get to Italy: “For us, the biggest threat comes from the South […] Our nightmares are not about Russian tanks invading from the east. They are about the terrorists a short boat ride away in Libya”. Hoagland also quotes a hawkish French member of parliament saying: “Nobody in France is debating about arming Ukraine […] We are debating how much national surveillance we need to spot terrorists returning from war zones in Syria and Iraq, and how to stop Africa from completely imploding” 28 . The Asia Pivot and European security The Ukraine crisis initially appeared to give weight to those who long opposed the Asia pivot, preferring instead that Europe remain an equal priority for the United States. Columnist Roger Cohen said: “Certainly, pivot to Asia does not look like such a great idea right now” 29 . It was crucial to stand up to Russia in eastern Ukraine, in part because if aggression was not challenged there, then China might believe that it could get away with similar actions in the Asia-Pacific. Still, in places like the Asia-Pacific, what matters is the actual balance of power, and availability of forces in the event of a conflict. In that sense, America being continually dragged into conflicts like eastern Ukraine was also likely to signal a vacuum or opening in Asia. Thus Poland’s Defense Minister hurt his own cause after meeting with U.S. Secretary of Defense, Chuck Hagel, in April 2014. The U.S. would not, as Poland wanted, be permanently stationing troops in that country or the territory of the three Baltic countries. Instead, there would be very small, rotational exercises, numbering in the hundreds. The Polish official nevertheless criticized American strategic priorities and instead said that: “Events show that what is needed is a re-pivot, and that Europe was safe and secure because 28 J. Hoagland, “Challenges to the South for NATO”, The Washington Post, 24 April 2015. 29 Roger Cohen, comments at CSIS conference, 20 March 2014, https://archive.org/details/CSPAN2_20140320_163000_Key_Capitol_Hill_Hearings#s tart/4313/end/4343.
The Logic of U.S. Engagement 105 America was in Europe” 30 . In reality, the U.S. is continuing with the Asia pivot, and the Ukraine crisis makes it all the more urgent that the European allies, via both NATO and the European Union, be able to stand on their own, without the United States if necessary. The New York Times reported in spring 2014 at the height of the crisis over Crimea that: […] Mr. Obama next month will head back to Asia, and aides said he would again promote his policy of pivoting toward the region he believes represents the future for America’s strategic priorities. One goal then for Mr. Obama, aides said, is to challenge Europe to take more of a leadership role itself, a familiar theme from Washington but one infused with a new urgency by the Ukraine crisis 31 . The Asia pivot was long mischaracterized by its opponents as a retrenchment or abandonment of long-standing American allies. This was never the case. The core assumption – driven by overstretch abroad and economic crisis at home – is that to meet new challenges posed by the rise of China, the United States needs to hand over lead responsibility to capable allies for their immediate security while being supported by the United States. Europe was in a particularly good position to find ways to better pool resources. The Eurozone crisis remained (through 2015) the primary challenge affecting European stability, not eastern Ukraine. Combined with deep austerity, this meant that European nations had little incentive to increase defense spending. However, they are incentivized to better pool their capabilities and to coordinate effectively on major European diplomatic initiatives. There were several core elements of the allied response to Russia within this broader strategic context: signaling strong and united political isolation of Russia for its illegal annexation over Crimea; gradually raising economic pain via sanctions which, combined with capital flight and dropping oil and gas prices, had a 30 F. Hiatt, “U.S. Ground Troops Going to Poland, Defense Minister Says”, The Washington Post, 18 April 2014. 31 M.D. Shear, P. Baker, “Obama Renewing U.S. Commitment to NATO Alliance”, New York Times, 26 March 2014.
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