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beyondukraine.euandrussiainsearchofanewrelation

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The EU and Russia after Crimea: Is Ukraine the Knot? 21<br />

the ‘Crimea is ours’ move and the interference in Ukrainian affairs<br />

and whether the economic price of such a move was considered.<br />

Yurgens, an influential policy adviser under Medvedev’s<br />

presidency, answered with bitterness: “You asked me about the<br />

calculations? The calculation was as follows: “Pride is more<br />

important than bread”. And so if we take Crimea then we will<br />

forget about the domestic problems, generate an upswing in public<br />

sentiment over the return of Crimea and Sevastopol – lands where<br />

Russian blood was spilled, where Tolstoj became Tolstoj and<br />

where Prince Vladimir was baptized. The calculations? Don’t<br />

worry, we’ll do them later, we have $500 billion in FX and gold<br />

reserves. Ukraine will fall apart. The West won’t attack a nuclear<br />

superpower. We’ll figure it out later” 9 .<br />

With Moscow’s direct intervention in the war in Ukraine, Putin<br />

has managed to ensure that the latter’s future lies, to a large extent,<br />

in his hands. But, by contrast, Russia’s position in Ukraine and its<br />

strategic options in the rest of the post-Soviet space have been<br />

weakened. In Ukraine, the Kremlin seeks strategic control of the<br />

country or, at least, to secure the capacity to block its foreign<br />

policy in the case of an eventual coming together with the EU or<br />

NATO. In this sense, Donbas is just an instrument. The<br />

‘decentralisation’ of Ukraine or the “national inclusive dialogue”<br />

arouses Putin’s interest only because of this goal and not in terms<br />

of Ukrainian domestic policy. The Kremlin’s ability to conceal its<br />

real objectives tends to profoundly distort the debates with and<br />

within the EU. The problem for Ukraine is that, until now, Donbas<br />

has been enough to force Kiev to accept the terms agreed in<br />

Minsk, but not to bend its will on maintaining its full sovereignty<br />

and freedom.<br />

In fact, Moscow seems to be toying with the idea that Kiev’s<br />

possible collapse, allied with Ukrainian disappointment at the lack<br />

of a solid deal with the EU, could end up changing the domestic<br />

political balance, leaving it more favourable to the Kremlin’s<br />

9 I. Yurgens, “Развернуть страну назад невозможно” (It is impossible to turn the<br />

country back), Novaya Gazeta, 14 November 2014, http://www.novayagazeta.ru/<br />

politics/66099.html.

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