beyondukraine.euandrussiainsearchofanewrelation

106 Beyond Ukraine. EU and Russia in Search of a New Relation
significant impact on the Russian economy; symbolic but
important reassurance of new NATO allies in a way that puts
Europeans in the lead; and encouraging European-led diplomacy,
in particular that pursued by German Chancellor, Angela Merkel,
and French President, Francois Holland.
Meanwhile, clear signals were sent to Russia that the West
would work with it where it could. Just after terrorist attacks in
France in January 2015, NATO Secretary General, Jens
Stoltenberg, said: “That’s the reason why we still strive for a more
cooperative and constructive relationship with Russia” – reflecting
on the benefits of working with Russia on counter-terrorism 32 . The
balance of power overwhelmingly favors the Western alliance and
thus restraint and engagement was a strategic advantage relative to
the complexity of the Ukraine crisis. The NATO allies collectively
spend over $1 trillion a year on defense versus about $80 billion
for Russia. Russia made tactical gains in eastern Ukraine – but
Moscow was, overall, playing a weak hand. NATO did not need to
diminish the prospects for de-escalation of the crisis or discourage
some kind of negotiated settlement about Ukraine’s future status 33 .
In terms of military actions, the United States and the European
allies focused mainly on how to provide low-level, but
symbolically important, reassurance to new NATO members
nearest to Russia. NATO sustained rotational deployments via
exercises into allied countries concerned about Russia. This was
done in ways that could be ratcheted up or down depending on
Moscow’s behavior. NATO opted against permanent deployments
so as not to give Vladimir Putin justification for even more
aggression, i.e. via a claim that it was the allies who violated the
NATO-Russia Founding Act. NATO’s approach to collective
defense has, since it began enlargement in the mid-1990s, made its
new members nervous because it is built upon reinforcing a
member that is attacked, rather than on forward defense of
32 A. Delfs, “NATO Head Says Russian Anti-Terror Cooperation Important”,
Bloomberg News, 8 January 2015.
33 J. Rovner, “Putin’s Crimea Blunder”, The National Interest Online, 6 March 2014,
http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/putins-crimea-blunder-10006.