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Seen from Moscow: Greater Europe at Risk 87
Reducing travel and exchanges will only exacerbate reciprocal
stereotyping and hostility. Liberalizing the visa regime for
Ukrainians will aggravate the situation, widen the gap, intensify
polarization and deepen dividing lines. The ability to exert joint
control over migration flows will also be badly hit. The Ukrainian
crisis engenders the problem of refugees and illegal migration,
hitting both sides. The lack of cooperation in this sphere will,
finally, increase the price of resolving this problem.
More generally, in terms of European perception, Russia is
regaining the status of a ‘significant other’ (“Russia is not
Europe”). A similar process will gain momentum in Russia. This
gap will be maintained and widened by the media, the education
system and other institutions, making the split long-term. It is
noteworthy that a similar tendency is also occurring with Turkey
(though due to different reasons). Indeed, Ankara seems to be
rethinking its ‘European’ vocation as well.
Interaction in the post-Soviet space
Only multilateral cooperation can solve important regional issues.
Russia, the EU, the U.S., and other actors are unlikely to help the
post-Soviet countries in resolving existing conflicts and
contradictions single-handedly. Such unilateral efforts are sure to
be opposed by one of the parties, and this is particularly true for
the conflict in Ukraine.
While major transparency would help provide better
integration, the dividing lines in the post-Soviet space –
restricting, in particular, freedom of movement – will damage
labor and student migration. This will lead to economic losses and
the general degradation of human resources. This may be the case
for Ukraine.
It goes without saying that instability in the post-Soviet space
will prevent the formation of full-fledged sovereign states. By
‘sovereignty’ we mean here the ability to pursue an independent
political course, to govern one’s own territory efficiently, and to
be self-supporting. Ukraine again offers an illustrative example.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union that country had a unique