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96 Beyond Ukraine. EU and Russia in Search of a New Relation limits on their nuclear activities once they see Americans and Russians cooperating effectively in Syria” 10 . The Syria events are indicative of a broader dilemma. In terms of escalation, Moscow has tactical dominance and multiple options to retaliate against the U.S. and Europe. Russian gas flows into Europe, constraining the extent to which the allies wish to escalate, given the ongoing Eurozone crisis. Meanwhile, there is most likely no outcome favorable to the United States in places like North Korea, Afghanistan, Iran, and Syria that does not involve Russian cooperation. The Ukraine crisis and the West As the West pursued enlargement of integrative institutions like NATO and the European Union, Russian elites and the public increasingly came to a perception that America had broken a pledge that, once Germany was united in NATO, there would be no further expansion of the alliance 11 . As Daniel Deudney and G. John Ikenberry write: “ […] much of this souring is the result of American policies […] American foreign policy, so successful at the moment of settlement, has pursued goals contrary to the settlement’s principles. This occurred through the administrations of both Bill Clinton and George W. Bush as the United States pursued short-term and secondary aims at the expense of more fundamental interests” 12 . The American approach to post-Cold War order-building in Europe offered a mixed record. NATO membership, for example, did help to consolidate stability in Poland as a geopolitical bridge between a rising Germany and declining Russia. The first round of NATO enlargement (which included Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic) produced 10 E. Luttwack, “Take It and Like It”, Foreign Policy, 10 September 2013. 11 See J.R. Shifrinson, “Put it in Writing: How the West Broke It’s Promise to Moscow”, Foreign Affairs, 29 October 2014, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/142310/joshua-ritzkowitz-shifrinson/put-it-in-writing. 12 D. Duedney, G.J. Ikenberry, “The Unravelling of the Cold War Settlement”, Survival, vol. 51, issue 6, 2009, p. 49.
The Logic of U.S. Engagement 97 gains for Russia as it received commitments of no permanent large-scale allied conventional or nuclear deployments in new NATO members; a NATO-Russia Founding Act created opportunities for deeper engagement with the West; and Russia was invited to join the G8 group of leading industrial powers. The second round of NATO enlargement (which included Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia) also did not produce a major backlash in Russia, and offered Moscow further gains with the creation of a permanent NATO-Russia Council. Now, with Russia’s actions in Ukraine, Moscow lost its role in the G8 and NATO-Russia cooperation was suspended. Vladimir Putin is thus doing great damage to average Russians’ desire to be seen with respect in the world. Nevertheless it is also the case that, over a twenty-year period, a deeply negative view of the West came to exist in Russia, heightened by classic Russian elite manipulation of existential external threats for domestic political gains. By 2015, Russians had a 42 per cent favorable view of China, and just a 6 and 4 per cent favorable view of Europe and the United States respectively 13 . Some American officials note that because Ukrainian membership in NATO was not on the agenda in the years prior to 2014, it could not have been a causal factor. However, many serious outside observers see it as the tap root of the crisis 14 . External actions can have internal political effects – in this case, heightening views among Russians that NATO is an existential threat. For example, American officials point to legalisms to show that the West did not break a promise to Mikhail Gorbachev that, once Germany was unified, there would be no further enlargement of NATO. However, what the NATO members think of that is not really relevant to how most Russians feel about the issue and thus 13 J. Ray, N. Esipova, “Russia Approval of Putin Soars to Highest Level in Years”, http://www.gallup.com/poll/173597/russian-approval-putin-soars-highest-level-years.aspx. 14 For a key debate over this issue, see M. McFaul, J.J. Mearsheimer, S. Sestanovich, “Faulty Powers: Who Started the Ukraine Crisis?”, Foreign Affairs, November/December 2014, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/142260/michael-mcfaul-stephen-sestanovich-johnj-mearsheimer/faulty-powers.
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