beyondukraine.euandrussiainsearchofanewrelation

Seen from Moscow: Greater Europe at Risk 83
before. There has been an on-going discussion between Russia and
the U.S. on implementation of the treaty, but the INF itself has
been treated as a separate track. It has not been correlated with
other issues. However the U.S. Ukraine Freedom Support Act
establishes such a link (section 10 of the Act). The danger is that
Russia may be subjected to sanctions if it is suspected of violating
the treaty. The mechanism of sanctions is not clearly stated in the
Act in regard to INF. But the very spirit of the Act and the fact
that INF has become a part of Ukrainian affairs is a matter of
tremendous concern. This may undermine the treaty, which has
been a fundamental achievement in Russia-West relations.
Consequently, it will make Europe much less secure, promoting
the arms race in a very sensitive sphere.
In particular, the dialogue on missile defense should be
continued. Worsening relations with Russia could trigger the
deployment of missile defenses in Europe as well as Russia’s
response to neutralize the potential threat to its nuclear forces. If
earlier the parties managed to find a compromise, now the
situation may result in an arms race, and the absence of any
interaction. There is a risk that missile defense will be approached
as a means to contain Russia. This justifies Russia’s old fears and
suspicions about the ‘real aims’ of the program and undermines
trust, which is already close to zero. Tentative ideas on joint
institutions to manage and operate missile defense as a measure of
trust will hardly get back on the agenda in the foreseeable future.
Russia and NATO relations represent another crucial issue.
Institutional mechanisms are phased out. The NATO-Russia
Council (NRC) raised many questions and aroused censure. But it
left open the possibility to exchange views and coordinate
positions. This platform is now frozen indefinitely. Meanwhile,
this could be a mechanism to reduce the risk of a political
escalation, caused by unintended accidents between Russia and
NATO arms forces.
At the same time the dialogue on Conventional Forces in
Europe is mired in deadlock. In the short and mid-term
perspective, we are likely to witness a conventional arms race and