beyondukraine.euandrussiainsearchofanewrelation

96 Beyond Ukraine. EU and Russia in Search of a New Relation
limits on their nuclear activities once they see Americans and
Russians cooperating effectively in Syria” 10 . The Syria events are
indicative of a broader dilemma. In terms of escalation, Moscow
has tactical dominance and multiple options to retaliate against the
U.S. and Europe. Russian gas flows into Europe, constraining the
extent to which the allies wish to escalate, given the ongoing
Eurozone crisis. Meanwhile, there is most likely no outcome
favorable to the United States in places like North Korea,
Afghanistan, Iran, and Syria that does not involve Russian
cooperation.
The Ukraine crisis and the West
As the West pursued enlargement of integrative institutions like
NATO and the European Union, Russian elites and the public
increasingly came to a perception that America had broken a
pledge that, once Germany was united in NATO, there would be
no further expansion of the alliance 11 . As Daniel Deudney and G.
John Ikenberry write: “ […] much of this souring is the result of
American policies […] American foreign policy, so successful at
the moment of settlement, has pursued goals contrary to the
settlement’s principles. This occurred through the administrations
of both Bill Clinton and George W. Bush as the United States
pursued short-term and secondary aims at the expense of more
fundamental interests” 12 . The American approach to post-Cold
War order-building in Europe offered a mixed record. NATO
membership, for example, did help to consolidate stability in
Poland as a geopolitical bridge between a rising Germany and
declining Russia. The first round of NATO enlargement (which
included Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic) produced
10 E. Luttwack, “Take It and Like It”, Foreign Policy, 10 September 2013.
11 See J.R. Shifrinson, “Put it in Writing: How the West Broke It’s Promise to Moscow”,
Foreign Affairs, 29 October 2014, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/142310/joshua-ritzkowitz-shifrinson/put-it-in-writing.
12 D. Duedney, G.J. Ikenberry, “The Unravelling of the Cold War Settlement”,
Survival, vol. 51, issue 6, 2009, p. 49.