Brittle Power- PARTS 1-3 (+Notes) - Natural Capitalism Solutions

188National Energy Securityand stable levels of assembly, is less sensitive to interruption. The probability of surprise(of failure) is the same for each. The cost…is very different [in that one makeris able to finish building watches while the other never can.] 44There may be a temptation to combine several steps into one in the interestsof greater “efficiency.” But such skipped stepswill force bigger steps [which] take a longer time [and]…presume the greatestknowledge and require the greatest investment. Hence, once initiated, they aremore likely to persist even in the face of obvious inadequacy. Finally, biggersteps will produce a larger cost if failure does occur. To avoid that, the logicaleffort will be to minimize the probability…of surprises or of failures.For example,…a number of watch-makers [might]…join together, pool theirresources, occupy a large building, and hire a secretary to handle the phonecalls. This would control the…interruptions and both watch-making strategieswould succeed. Without the interruptions, there is not that much to gain bymaintaining very many steps in a hierarchy of subassemblies. [Having fewersteps between larger subassemblies]…might increase efficiency and produceeconomies of scale but is totally dependent on complete and invariant controlof disturbance. If the secretary were sick for one day production would halt. 45Imitating the strategy of successfully resilient ecosystems, then, may notwring out the last ounce of “efficiency” or attain the acme of specializationthat might be optimal in a surprise-free world. But in a world of uncertainty,imperfect knowledge, and constant change, such “efficiency,” with no slack foradaptations, can be deadly. The more resilient, slightly less “efficient” strategywins an even richer prize—minimizing unexpected and disastrous consequenceswhich can arise when the causal structure of a real system turns outto be qualitatively different than expected. 46Why solutions become problems The dangers of narrowly “efficient” interventionscan be illustrated by five practical examples: 47• Spraying to control spruce budworm in eastern Canada. This protects thepulp and paper industry in the short term. But the populations of budworms,their avian and mammalian predators, tree foliage, and other elementsof the ecosystem are continually changing anyhow on many differenttime-scales, with fast, intermediate, and slow variables. Spraying disturbsonly the first variables, sending an intricate web of dynamic relationshipsinto a new behavior mode. The unexpected result of spraying turns out tobe reduced tree growth, chronic budworm infestation, outbreaks over