Brittle Power- PARTS 1-3 (+Notes) - Natural Capitalism Solutions

282National Energy Securitydesigns ranging from one-fifth to two and a half megawatts), photovoltaics,diesels, and fuel cells “can provide an economic alternative to large-scale centralgeneration if their projected cost goals can be met.” 46 (Those goals have alreadybeen exceeded by small wind machines, 47 and are likely to be met ahead ofschedule, as noted in Appendix Three, for photovoltaics.) The studies alsofound that dispersed renewable sources of electricity, even if intermittent, wouldimprove the system’s generation reliability. 48 They may also add to service reliabilityby protecting the end user against both grid and generation failures. 49Roughly half the economic advantage of the distributed sources comes fromtheir displacement of conventional power plant capacity, 50 half from their fuelsavings, and a small amount from avoiding grid costs and losses. 51 The total costsaving is not very sensitive to the details of the utility’s load or generation mix. 52Although analysis of renewable systems with dispersed storage is complex, 53system economics do not seem very sensitive to whether storage is provided. Inparticular, photovoltaics do not appear to require onsite electrical storage to beeconomically attractive, 54 as has sometimes been claimed.In summary: adequate ways exist to integrate available renewable sourcesof electricity into the power grid, and these methods can save money. Moreanalysis and action are urgently needed, however, to find out• which methods are best (Appendix Two);• whether other types of end-use systems would be more advantageous—forexample, low-voltage direct current in households (Appendix Two); and• how to design and organize the dispersed sources to yield the greatestimprovement in resilience.Otherwise, as dispersed renewables emerge into widespread use over the nextdecade or two, their patterns of use may merely repeat present vulnerabilitiesso that much of their potential national security benefit is foregone.Technical status of resilient renewable sourcesAppropriate renewable sources and hybrid combinations of them areimmensely diverse. They span a large range of complexity and technicalsophistication. They are evolving extremely rapidly, 55 often through researchoutside the channels where energy technologists traditionally communicate. 56For all these reasons, any assessment of the technical and economic status ofthese “soft technologies” is bound to reflect only the conditions of the moment.Fortunately, the moving target is moving consistently in a favorable direction—better and cheaper technologies—so not being completely up-to-date usuallymeans omitting the latest good news. It is hard to think of an instance where