Brittle Power- PARTS 1-3 (+Notes) - Natural Capitalism Solutions

Chapter Fifteen: End-Use Efficiency: Most Resilience Per Dollar 257problems). Exxon would find under Detroit a vast pool of saved oil, producible(not just extractable) at a rate exceeding five million barrels per day—equivalent to Ghawar, the world’s largest oilfield—at a price under seven dollarsper barrel, or about a fifth of the 1981 world oil price.These examples are perhaps a trifle whimsical, but they have a seriouspoint. Switching to a sixty-mpg fleet of cars would save nearly four millionbarrels of crude oil per day—equivalent to two-thirds of the entire 1981 netrate of U.S. oil imports, greater than the imports from the Gulf, or the sameas two and a half Alaskan North Slopes or eighty big synfuel plants. Similaraction with light trucks would save a further one and half million barrels perday, or about one North Slope. Thus just an efficient light vehicle fleet wouldsave nearly five and a half million barrels per day—exceeding the total 1981net rate of U.S. oil imports. Even if the fleet average reached only forty mpginstead of sixty, the saving would be almost four million barrels per day. 76That plus the saving from weatherization—two and a half million barrels perday by 1990 (five million by 2000)—would displace about a million barrels perday more than all the net oil which the U.S. imported in 1981, or over twomillion more than 1982 imports.In short, just the two biggest oil-saving measures, if pursued for a decade orso to a level well short of what is technically feasible or economically worthwhile,would more than eliminate all U.S. oil imports. They would do thisbefore a power plant or synfuel plant ordered today would deliver any energywhatsoever, and at about a tenth of its cost. 77 And by reviving the depressedhousing and car industries, they would be not only economically but also sociallyefficient—as opposed to the present misallocation of resources, which simultaneouslymakes boomtowns in the Rockies and ghost towns in Michigan.Economic prioritiesFor further illustration, consider the following five ways in which the sum ofone hundred thousand dollars could be spent to reduce dependence on importedoil over the next ten years. For each method, the cumulative oil saving duringthat decade, starting now, is shown for easy comparison. These examplesare not meant to be sophisticated calculations—they assume, for example, thatreal oil prices will remain constant, and they do not discount future savings (dollaramounts are all in real 1980 terms)—but their qualitative point is clear.1. Use the hundred thousand dollars as seed money to catalyze a door-todoorcitizen action program of low-cost/no-cost weatherization in particularlyleaky buildings. (Such a program does not involve insulation, but only pluggingobvious holes which let the wind whistle through the house.) Such seed