Brittle Power- PARTS 1-3 (+Notes) - Natural Capitalism Solutions

28Brittle Powerinfluence of unexpected events not taken into account, and changes in technologyand society—make it impossible in principle to foresee all risks. 21As an example of how many surprises may be lurking beyond the rangeof our attention, consider one narrow area of concern: the stability of regionaland global climate. These are some of the unexpected energy-climate interactionswhose existence was first widely revealed during the 1970s:•“Forcing” the nitrogen cycle by using synthetic nitrogen fertilizer increasesthe incidental production of nitrous oxide by denitrifying bacteria in the soil(especially if acid rain makes the soil more sour). Some of the nitrous oxidediffuses up to the stratosphere. There its photochemical products attack theozone layer, especially at altitudes above about fifty miles. This in turnchanges the heating and circulation of the upper atmosphere. Some analystsbelieve that the near-term rates of artificial nitrogen fixation might be climaticallysignificant. 22• Radioactive krypton gas routinely released by nuclear reactors and reprocessingplants can apparently alter atmospheric ionization and hence the distributionof electric charge in the atmosphere (the “fairweather potential gradient”).This change has unknown but potentially large effects on nimbusrainfall (such as monsoons and thunderstorms) and other processes importantto global agriculture and heat transport. This charge-altering effect maybecome important at krypton concentrations hundreds of thousands of timesless than those of radiological health concern, possibly including present ornear-term levels. 23• An oil spill in the Beaufort Sea, where drilling is now underway, couldarguably spread under the fragile Arctic sea ice, and work its way to the surfacethrough seasonal melting on top and freezing on the bottom. In about tenyears this could make the top of the ice gray, increase its solar absorptivity,and so lead to a probably irreversible melting of the sea ice, with dramaticeffects on hemispheric weather patterns. 24 Present levels of soot in Arctic airmay also be worrisome, since even faintly gray snow absorbs heat much betterthan pristine white snow. 25•Fluctuations in the behavior of charged particles in the upper atmosphereover Antarctica have been correlated with power surges in the NorthAmerican electrical grid—apparently coupled, and very greatly amplified,through some sort of resonance effect. The climatic relevance of this linkage,if any, is unknown. 26These examples could as well have been taken from many other areas ofearth science (or from biology or even political and social science) as from climatology.Their point is not that there is a lot we don’t yet know about climatology;it is rather that the future is a cornucopia of surprises. One scien-