Brittle Power- PARTS 1-3 (+Notes) - Natural Capitalism Solutions

410Brittle Powerwant to cause mass destruction, even in war.There are, however, many precedents for suchbehavior (Ramberg 19809:18–19); both U.S.and Soviet strategic doctrines are based on it;and anyhow the destruction can accidentallybe far greater than was intended.186 Kupperman & Trent 1980:46.187 Ibid.188 Ibid.:57.189 Ibid.:46, 65–68.190 Drobnick & Enzer 1981.Notes to Chapter Twelve1 Coal, which provides a fifth of U.S. primaryenergy, has been treated in less detail bythe earlier discussion of its transportation andlabor problems, and implicitly by ChapterTen, since most of the coal is burned in largepower stations.2 There are several other ways to deal withthe estimated twenty-six trillion cubic feet ofNorth Slope gas. First, keeping it where it is permitsit to be repeatedly recycled through the oilreservoirs, greatly increasing the fraction of theoil resource that is ultimately recovered—and stillmaking it possible to recover the gas afterwards.Second, keeping it there until it is economicallyworth bringing to market (there is currentlyevery prospect it would prove unsaleably costlydespite the subsidies given it) will prevent a costlymisallocation of resources. The proper questionis not how we could better use the gas thanpiping it south, but rather how we could betteruse the money which this would cost. Third,there may be an attractive technical alternative:converting the gas onsite to methanol, aportable vehicular fuel. Apparently, there aresome technical difficulties in shipping methanolthrough the existing oil pipeline, but it is not yetclear how serious these are, and Congress wasnot given the opportunity to find out. It is quitelikely that despite the extensive 1981 package ofwaivers of existing law, Wall Street will neverthelessrefuse to finance the project and it willtherefore not be built. Interestingly, one of themany competitors that makes the pipeline ofNorth Slope gas grossly uneconomic for thenext few decades, if not forever, is the burgeoningdiscovery of new gas fields in many parts ofthe United States which now import virtually allof their gas from Texas and Louisiana (e.g.,Byron 1981; Pennino 1981). This trend, if continued,promises to disperse U.S. gas extractionand reduce dependence on long-distancepipelines—a goal which, decades ago, was metby dispersed town-gas plants (Stephens1974:80). The contrast in vulnerability betweenOhio or Pennsylvania gas brought from a wellwithin tens of miles and Alaskan gas shippedabout five thousand miles could not be morecomplete.3 Fulkerson 1981:48, 169.4 Los Angeles Times 1978, 1978a; FBI1979:16–17, 28–29; FBI 1980:19. Kentuckycoal-related bombings in particular haveexceeded one per month during 1977–80,chiefly in connection with strikes and labormanagementtensions.5 Masselli & Dean 1981. This is more true oftechnologies to make synthetic liquid fuelsthan of those which make gas, especially gasof low or intermediate heat content. Some ofthose technologies are relatively well proven.Whether they can compete with more efficientenergy use, some renewable sources, or conventionalnatural gas is another matter(Appendix three; Linden 1981).6 Perry & Landsberg 1981:234.7 The peacetime rate of energy use ofAmerica’s military establishment in 1979 was estimatedat about seven hundred thousand barrelsof oil equivalent per day (Maize 1980), mostly inthe form of premium liquid fuels for vehicles.8 Marshall 1981c; Burns 1981. It is not yetclear whether the agreement will be affectedby developments in Poland. It may at least beimpeded by the U.S. embargo on export ofturbines for the compressor stations. The gascontracts reportedly exact hefty hard-currencypenalties from the Soviets if they do not deliverthe gas on time, and at least in the mediumterm the main customers have arranged non-Communist back-up suppliers.9 Data from DOE 1981a:21. The losses arisingfrom the synfuels industry are relativelysmall, since DOE has reduced the productiontarget to half a million barrels per day by 1990(Ibid.:23).10 Since compact objects are easier to defendthan long, slender objects, one measure of