THE CARBON WAR

190
The Winning of The Carbon War
scientists do when selling the problem. Bill Ritter and his colleagues must continue
supporting Obama so that he has the best possible chance of delivering the
most he can while surviving the Republican- and (often related) incumbency
blowback. This, sadly, is unlikely to involve talk about a two-degrees target
being too little too late.
I am tempted to the view that the news of the day, each day since my day
in Paris, sits comfortably with this analysis. On May 20 th , President Hollande
calls for a “miracle” climate agreement in December. Business will be key:
there must be a business “revolution”, he says, invoking the spirit of the French
revolution. President Obama, meanwhile, recasts climate change as a national
security threat in a speech to the Coast Guard Academy. This is the kind of
thing he has to do, to breathe life into his search for legacy.
On May 21 st , Saudi Arabian oil minister Ali Naimi astonishes Paris Climate
Week by saying that the Kingdom built on oil can foresee a fossil fuel phaseout
this century. Saudi Arabia could phase out fossil fuels, he says, by “I don’t
know… 2040, 2050, or thereafter”.
2040? OK, that’s 25 years from now.
GDF Suez (now rebranded as Engie) also unveils a surprise this day. CEO
Gerard Mestrallet, he who I saw tell the World Energy Congress not so long
ago that gas can solve all problems and that renewables must be suppressed,
now sings a different tune. “The choice we have made is very clear”, he says,
“we have stopped investing in thermal power generation in Europe and we are
investing in renewables.” Thermal power investment will only happen in the
developing world, Mestrallet now says.
Tony Hayward, Glencore chairman, tries to get in on the green-headline-grabbing
act. He calls for an end to subsidies for fossil fuels. He still sees a
big role for coal though, come what may, as any chair of Glencore would have
to. He professes that solar cannot be expected to replace coal in India. Solar
executives clash with him, saying that he is defending the past.
On 22 nd , insurance giant Axa announces it will divest from higher-risk coal
funds and triple its investment in green technology. The company has become
motivated to sell €500m of assets by the risks inherent in climate change, it says.
On 26 th , the World Health Organisation targets the 8 million deaths per
year caused by indoor and outdoor air pollution, and passes a landmark resolution.
The co-operation they now intend, aiming to improve human health,
will also improve the the prospects of progress on climate change, by dint of
default emissions reductions.