THE CARBON WAR

324
The Winning of The Carbon War
work out the words of encouragement – or perhaps the medical intervention
– that can bring an agreement into the world.”
I smile as I read this. They should have added that the relatives come from
a very large and extremely fractious family more accustomed, in their mutual
dealings, to the rattling of swords, putting up of fences, and worse, than to
endeavours at universal co-operation.
The new text is delivered at 9:20 p.m.
We are down from 29 pages to 27.
The text seeks to keep temperature rises to “well below” 2°C and to “pursue
efforts” to limit the temperature increase to 1.5.
Excellent. So long as there is a tight ratchet, and the $100 billion a year
that lights the way to the trillion then the trillions.
There is.
In shooting for well below 2°C, and trying for 1.5°C, countries would peak
climate change-causing emissions “as soon as possible”, and “undertake rapid
reductions thereafter towards reaching greenhouse gas emissions neutrality
in the second half of the century.” They would review and potentially raise the
level of pledges countries make, on a five-year cycle. Developed nations would
mobilize finance beyond a floor of $100 billion per year.
It is potentially a strong-signal text, if the brackets are closed the right way.
But will they be? While there are square brackets, scope exists for
derailments.
There is also some confusion over what “greenhouse gas emissions neutrality”
means. Pundits are quick to assert it is simply another way of saying
“zero net emissions”: greenhouse gases put into the atmosphere are offset to
zero, measurably, by the creation of “sinks” like new biomass that take them out.
The Marshall Islands minister who has been the driving force of the 1.5°C
campaign, Tony de Brum, immediately lets it be known that he can live with
the new draft. He urges all countries to support it.
The next indaba is due to start at 11:30.
I head for my bed, feeling sorry for the negotiators.
Or more exactly, sorry the majority of negotiators: the ones listening to
Laurent Fabius.
Can the few that aren’t yet sink the ship?