THE CARBON WAR

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The Winning of The Carbon War
drafted: one capable of crashing the system at very short notice. And we are
not spoilt for choice as to potential triggers: just ask the Bank of England about
their multiple fears on that front. If a crash erupts in the markets, and we enter
a global depression deep enough to threaten social cohesion – potentially in
the process handing power in multiple countries to ruthless libertarian rightist
governments or worse – then all bets are off for the winning of the carbon war.
A good day, therefore, to reflect on the ethics of both climate change and
power in society. Pope Francis publishes his encyclical in Rome.
This much-heralded and already-leaked missive, a book in its own right,
talks not just about climate change but the wider global inequality and abuse
of power that allows carbon emissions to keep growing, notwithstanding the
threat they pose to creation. It tells rich nations to pay back their debt to the
poor. It casts blame for the entire global ecological crisis on the indifference of
the powerful, and the extreme consumerism on the part of some.
The message of the encyclical is fast echoing around the world in media
coverage, both mainstream and digital. There is every chance, commentators
are saying, that many people will come to view climate change very differently
under this Pope’s guidance.
The message on the energy transition could not be clearer. “There is an
urgent need to develop policies so that, in the next few years, the emission of
carbon dioxide and other highly polluting gases can be drastically reduced, for
example, substituting for fossil fuels and developing sources of renewable energy.”
That reduction should go all the way to phase-out. “We know that technology
based on the use of highly polluting fossil fuels – especially coal, but also oil
and, to a lesser degree, gas – needs to be progressively replaced without delay.”
The encyclical has a name, “Laudato Sii” (Praised Be), after a line in St.
Francis of Assisi’s prayer of praise, “Canticle of Creatures.” Another line of that
prayer reads: “Praised be you, my Lord, with all your creatures, especially Sir
Brother Sun, who is the day, and through whom you give us light.”
In the encyclical itself, the Pope is more prosaic about Sir Brother Sun’s
role. “Taking advantage of abundant solar energy will require the establishment
of mechanisms and subsidies”, the wording goes. “The costs of this would be
low, compared to the risks of climate change.”
In the preparation of the document, the Vatican has taken great care to
consult many the world’s foremost experts on climate change. The Pontifical
Academy of Sciences drafted in top climate scientists to advise. I can see their
footprint in parts of the encyclical. On the scientific underpinnings, and the
treatment of uncertainty, for example: “If objective information suggests that