THE CARBON WAR

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The Winning of The Carbon War
report what is said, beyond what is now probably obvious: a lot of companies
can expect to be asked by their shareholders to produce stress-tests of their
business plans against a world heading for a 2°C global-warming ceiling in
2016. They will not find it easy.
The occasion adds to my rising sense of hope for the rest of this week,
and beyond.
I chat afterwards to Bob Litterman, a former Goldman Sachs executive,
now with a hedge fund. He has been famously shorting coal, in a fund he set
up wherein significant proceeds go to bankrolling environmental group WWF.
The fund is up 40% since its creation in June last year, and a further 7% just
in the last few days.
Fossil fuels are in meltdown, Litterman tells me. Analysts are saying that
it’s because Saudi Arabia is still pumping oil. I think it’s at least in part because
of the rain of news coming out of Paris. People see writing on walls.
Back at Le Bourget, ministers from the so-called BASIC countries – Brazil,
South Africa, India and China – give a press conference. Any agreement must
contain clearly differentiated responsibilities for developed and developing
nations, they say. It is imperative that rich nations take a visible lead in cutting
emissions. They call for more ambition from developed countries. They profess
themselves ready to agree a provision in the agreement that would ask them
to offer climate finance if they were “in a position to do so” or “willing to do
so”. But they would agree to such a provision only if it is totally voluntary and
if the developed countries themselves explicitly pledge to raise at least US$100
billion every year after 2020, as they promised to do in Copenhagen.
As for the 1.5°C target, that is still on the table as far as they are concerned.
The continuing survival of this 1.5 initiative, widely unforeseen entering
the summit, is amazing many people I talk to. Will it be traded away in the
endgame? I pray not, especially for the people of Kiribati, and all the other
island nations.
Then, late in the day, a very surprising development. A unique group of
nations announces they have formed a new coalition. They are calling themselves
the “high ambition coalition”. Members include the US, the EU, African,
Pacific and Caribbean states, and a few Latin American countries.
It turns out that they had agreed their initiative in secret, at the suggestion
of the Federated States of Micronesia, six months ahead of the talks.
The group seeks a legally binding global and ambitious deal on climate
change, one that sets a clear long-term goal on global warming, in line with scientific
advice; that introduces a mechanism for reviewing countries’ emissions