THE CARBON WAR

Chapter 31
Red alert
Paris, 7 th –10 th December 2015
Day Eight, Monday 7 th December: Ban Ki-moon gives a welcome speech to the
ministers as they get down to work at Le Bourget. You are here this week to
kick off a clean-energy revolution to rein in a climate catastrophe, he says. The
world is expecting more than half measures. It is calling for a transformative
agreement.
Paul Bodnar, President Obama’s senior advisor on energy and climate,
gives me his take on progress over a coffee. Differentiation is the key issue, he
says, this is where the endgame will focus.
Paul has been a key player in the bilateral discussions the US has held with
the Chinese over the last few years. I am struck by how sanguine he appears
now, though he says nothing to suggest he is confident a strong-signal agreement
can actually be delivered.
Finance is where the politics of differentiation play out most intensely.
There are still no reports of any breakthroughs, and in that situation journalists
and observers inevitably trawl for clues. I choose to find one in a statement by
Shri Prakash Javadekar, India’s Minister for Environment, Forests and Climate
Change, who suggests that the real cost of the global energy transformation
will be in the trillions, and that the $100 billion under dispute is “a symbolic
but important gesture” en route to that.
Christiana Figueres elaborates on this issue in a press briefing. “I see a
growing consensus that $100 billion will be the floor and not the ceiling”, she
says. “Are we there yet, at 100 billion? No. But we’re certainly moving close.”
We will find out in just a few days now.
John Kerry has arrived in town. “We need to have an agreement somewhat
in shape by Thursday if we’re going to meet the needs of Friday”, he says,