THE CARBON WAR

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The Winning of The Carbon War
cash in July. I was successful in raising most of the hybrid grant / loan capital
I needed to plug the gap for a while, and other supporters kindly donated to
help out. As I write, we live to regroup and fight on in 2016. But in a war, it
is important to remember that a victorious side can lose platoons and even
regiments and still win. Over the long course of the carbon war many solar
companies have gone under, but the global solar market has expanded apace. Let
us hope SolarAid, with its unique charitable model, can find a way to continue
helping out materially at the bottom of the pyramid, where more conventional
organisations might fear to tread.
In August 2015, we had tea in London with a conscience-stricken executive
from a fossil fuel company. We found that he is contemplating flight from
his role stoking global warming, on the wrong side of a rising tide of anguish
in civil society. I made the point that I have been surprised, for a quarter of a
century now, that I don’t meet more people like him. I am going to stick my
neck out and predict that this too will change in 2016. Too many people in
the incumbency will be encountering too much grief at their breakfast tables,
especially those with sons and daughters old enough to understand what the
greenhouse effect is. Neither will many of them have the stomach, on their own
account, to stay on the wrong side of history. The great global energy transition
will consist of many rising tides, and one of them will be converts.
In September 2015, in Oslo, Bucharest and London, we witnessed different
kinds of companies wrestling with the notion of profound energy transition,
even ahead of a result from Paris. The entire executive team of utility Statkraft
needed no persuading. Partners of an un-named accountancy-and-advisor firm
reviewed opportunities and options at a strategy retreat. Boutique investment
bank GMP Securities enthused about opportunities in Africa. Now that we do
have a result from Paris, we can expect an explosion of such companies acting
in anticipation of transition in 2016.
In late September 2015, we listened to Pope Francis deliver his historic
speech to the combined houses of the US Congress. We marvelled at his diplomatic
yet clear messaging. We noted the traction he is achieving with those
messages, even in conservative quarters. Along the way in 2014, we also noted
leadership initiatives from other religions, including Islamic leaders. In 2016,
we can expect the ethical arguments of religious leaders to add considerable
momentum to the direction of travel.
In October 2015, we went to California in search of clues for the energy
transition as Silicon Valley is pursuing it. On this trip we saw that the astonishing
advances of the information revolution have barely begun to overlay