ConflictBarometer_2015

ASIA AND OCEANIA
CHINA (TAIWAN)
Intensity: 2 | Change: | Start: 1949
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
ROC government vs. ROC opposition
vs. PRC
secession, system/ideology
The non-violent crisis over the political status of Taiwan
between the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic
of China (ROC) continued. The ROC government led by
Kuomintang (KMT) President Ma Ying-jeou remained committed
to the strengthening of economic and political relations,
but faced strong domestic opposition from the Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) and pro-independence civil society
groups [→ China (Taiwan opposition)]. In the Legislative
Yuan, the DPP insisted on the passage of its proposed crossstrait
agreement oversight bill. Together with some KMT
members, it continued to block the ratification of the controversial
Cross-Strait Services Trade Agreement which had
triggered the 2014 protests of the ''sunflower movement.''
It also prevented the review of a Cross-Strait Merchandise
Trade Agreement. Despite the legislative gridlock, economic
exchange was promoted via the ROC's easing of mainland
tourism on the Kinmen, Matsu, and Penghu islands and the
PRC's reaffirmation of its preferential tax policies for Taiwanese
investors.
In January, a controversy emerged over PRC's announcement
of four new civil aviation routes which would come close
to ROC-controlled airspace. ROC condemned the move as
unilateral and filed a complaint with the International Civil
Aviation Organization over safety concerns. After negotiations,
PRC began operating the first route on March 29. On
March 31, Taiwan launched a bid to join the PRC's Asia Infrastructure
Investment Bank (AIIB) as a founding member, which
was rejected by the PRC. However, the PRC's Taiwan Affairs
Office (TAO) stated that Taiwan was welcome to join under
''an appropriate name.''
After the KMT's defeat in the November 2014 local elections,
PRC officials voiced concerns over prospects of a possible
DPP victory in the upcoming presidential and legislative elections
on 01/16/16. On March 4, PRC leader Xi Jinping warned
that peaceful relations could only continue on the basis of
the ''1992 consensus'', comprising the One China principle.
On April 8, DPP chairwoman and presidential candidate Tsai
Ing-wen stated that the DPP's cross-strait policy would be to
maintain the ''status quo'' of peaceful and stable relations.
Within her party she encouraged cross-strait exchanges of
DPP mayors. Two days later, the TAO responded by insisting
on the ''1992 consensus''. Similarly, PRC officials temporarily
stopped proceedings of a planned city forum between
Shanghai and Taipei after Taipei Mayor and DPP member Ko
Wen-jie had denied the consensus. From May 29 to June 9,
Tsai payed a twelve-day visit to the USA, publicly assuring her
commitment to cross-strait peace and meeting with officials
from the US State Department and National Security Council.
On June 10, the TAO condemned the US's reception of Tsai as
a ''wrong signal to the island's separatist forces'' that would
go against the stability of the Taiwan Strait. On November 7,
Ma met with Xi in Singapore, marking the first meeting of the
Communist and Kuomintang leadership since 1945. The DPP
condemned the move, while pro-independence groups organized
a series of protests in the capital Taipei. In a joint press
conference after the meeting, both leaders emphasized the
common Chinese nation and praised the progress of relations
under the ''1992 consensus''. However, Ma also mentioned
both sides' different political systems and voiced concerns
over the continued deployment of missiles against Taiwan.
In its annual report in December, ROC's Ministry of National
Defense repeated its earlier assessment that the PRC would
be able to launch an invasion of the island and deter foreign
intervention by 2020. In line with this, the DPP announced
in its election campaign that it would increase the defense
budget by one percent of GDP and further strengthen the
country's domestic defense industry to reduce its reliance on
arms deals. On December 16, however, US President Obama
authorized a USD 1.83 billion arms package for Taiwan, the
first of such kind in four years. The PRC condemned the move
and announced sanctions against the companies involved [→
China USA]. On December 30, PRC and ROC established a
hotline between their semi-official representative offices. jfr
CHINA (TIBET)
Intensity: 3 | Change: | Start: 1950
Conflict parties: CTA, Tibetans, TYC vs. government
Conflict items: autonomy, system/ideology, resources
The violent crisis between Tibetans and the government over
the status of the greater region of Tibet, its system, and
resources such as water and farmland continued. At least
seven Tibetans set themselves on fire to protest Chinese
rule in Tibetan populated areas, demanding more freedom of
expression and association.
Throughout the year, Tibetans protested against forced land
expropriation, infrastructure projects, mining activities, and
environmental degradation. Local authorities stopped most
of the reported protests, some of them violently.
A Tibetan monk living in Ngaba town, Ngaba county, Sichuan
Province, was beaten and detained by the police after he had
launched a solo protest calling for Tibetan freedom on March
9. One day later, in Dronru village, Draggo/Luhuo county,
Sichuan, police shot and injured a Tibetan carrying a prayer
flag on his motorcycle after he refused to stop at a traffic stop.
On July 13, in Nyagchuka county, Sichuan, police fired shots
at a crowd of over 1,000 protesters to disperse them. The
Tibetan protesters had gathered to mourn Tenzin Delek Rinpoche,
a Buddhist leader who had died in prison. Moreover, a
dozen Tibetans were beaten and detained on September 24
in Thangkor, Dzoege/Ruo'ergai county, Tibet Autonomous Region
(TAR), after they had reoccupied land used for a government
development project. Between October 16 and 21, local
authorities destroyed around 300 Tibetan private homes and
shops in Trelnak township, Chabcha/Gonghe county, Qinghai
Province, after deeming them illegal, leaving approx. 900
people homeless.
Authorities imposed severe restrictions on Tibetan religion
and culture. In February, Chinese authorities in Rebkong/Tongren
county, Qinghai, published a list of 20 illegal
activities deemed to challenge Beijing's rule, among
them prohibitions already in force against self-immolation
protests and online advocacy of Tibetan independence. On
June 10, Chinese authorities banned a two-week religious
assembly at the Jonang monastery in Dzamthang/Rangtang
county, Sichuan, for which the participation of 3,000 monks
had been expected.
During the year, members of regional Temple Management
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