ConflictBarometer_2015

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
campaign to decrease the amount of firearms in the region
and to punish communities for engaging in cattle rustling.
In the beginning of the year, Interior Cabinet Secretary Joseph
Nkaissery announced to increase security presence in the Rift
Valley in order to have all weapons registered and to start
a disarmament campaign in the conflict-torn Northwest. In
February, the government deployed security personnel to
Kapedo, an oil-rich region contested between Baringo and
Turkana, among other regions, in order to disarm herders.
In the Northeast, in Mandera and Wajir county where more
than 100 people had been killed in clashes between Degodia
and Garre in the previous year, fighting between the two
communities continued, leaving dozens dead in 2015.
For instance, between June 15 and 17, despite increased
presence by Kenyan Defense Forces and the police in the
area, at least 14 people were killed in a series of clashes
between the warring groups.
In the southwestern Narok county, the theft of livestock led
to several clashes between Maasai and Kipsigis, a sub-group
of the Kalenjin. In reaction to the death of two people, the
destruction of at least 200 houses, and the displacement
of up to 5,000 people from Olposimoru, Narok county, the
government deployed 100 security personnel to quell the
violence.
Following a peace meeting led by Nkaissery, local officials
stated that peace was restored.
Throughout the year, numerous trans-border incidents were
observed, with militias from Ethiopia, Somalia, and South
Sudan launching attacks on Kenyan soil or vice versa. For
instance, in mid-March, raiders from the Toposa, coming from
South Sudan, repeatedly attacked Lokichogio, Turkana, killing
four people and stealing several hundred heads of cattle.
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MADAGASCAR (OPPOSITION)
Intensity: 1 | Change: END | Start: 2009
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
Mapar, TIM vs. government
national power
The conflict over national power between the opposition
parties Together for President Andry Rajoelina (MAPAR) and
I Love Madagascar (TIM) of former president Marc Ravalomanana,
on the one hand, and the government of President
Hery Rajaonarimapianina and his supporting party A New
Force for Madagascar (HVM), on the other, ended. Since the
five-year institutional turmoil was brought to an end with the
2013 presidential elections, the initial conflict between the
TGV-led coalition MAPAR and TIM, now both in opposition,
shifted to a power struggle between them and the government.
On January 14, Rajoelina legally contested the appointment
of Air Force Commander Jean Ravelonarivo as new prime
minister due to alleged irregularities. In February, former
presidents Albert Zafy and Rajoelina exited reconciliation
talks but acknowledged their continuation. In reconciliation
talks in mid-April, which he had initially challenged, Ravalomanana
accepted the legitimacy of the ruling government
and the Presidency. The house arrest he had lived under
since his return to Madagascar in October 2014 was lifted.
In July, Justice Minister Noeline Ramanantenasoa announced
that Ravalomanana was officially free. His return and legal
status had been one major issue of the national reconciliation
efforts since his ouster in early 2009.
In late May, a large majority of the parliament's lower house
proposed a motion for the impeachment of President Rajaonarimampianina
due to unconstitutional governance. The
motion was later officially disapproved by the country's constitutional
court. In early July, opposition MPs called a censure
motion against the government due to its alleged failure to
resolve socioeconomic problems but failed to achieve the
required two-thirds qualified majority.
Municipal elections took place on July 31, with HVM gaining
a countrywide majority. In late December, Senate elections
were held for the first time since 2009, with HVM again
winning the majority of seats. dt
MALI (HCUA, MNLA ET AL. / AZAWAD)
Intensity: 3 | Change: | Start: 1989
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
HCUA, MNLA et al. vs. government
autonomy
The violent crisis in the northern regions between various
militant groups, specifically between the Tuareg groups National
Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) and
High Council for the Unity of Azawad (HCUA), on the one
hand, and the government, on the other, continued.
The two sides disagreed over the degree of autonomy
for the northern regions Kidal, Timbuktu, and Gao, where
MNLA had established its own state, Azawad. However,
MNLA suspended their secessionist goal in December 2012
and MINUSMA-supported negotiations with the government
started in Algiers, Algeria, in June 2014. In the course of
negotiations, MNLA, HCUA, and three other groups formed
the Coalition of Azawad Movements (CMA), while the Self-
Defense Group of Imrad Tuareg and Allies (GATIA) united with
other groups in the so-called Platform [→ Mali (inter-militant
rivalry / northern Mali)].
On January 23, the CMA threatened to withdraw from peace
talks after MINUSMA forces had killed MNLA fighters in an
airstrike in the town of Tabankort, Gao, three days before.
The peace talks resumed in Algiers on February 16, yielding
a trilateral ceasefire three days later. On March 1, the
government and the Platform signed a preliminary peace
agreement, while the CMA asked for a delay for further consultations
with its grassroots movements. The CMA rejected
the drafted agreement two weeks later, but expressed its
willingness to continue the peace talks. After a delegation
from the UNSC had met with CMA representatives in Kidal
in the eponymous region in mid-March in order to persuade
the coalition to sign the peace agreement, the government
stated on April 9 CMA's readiness to do so. However, CMA
subsequently refused, demanding its proposed amendments
to be taken into account.
Violent confrontations were limited to the first half of the
year. In the most fatal incident, militants of CMA attacked
the town of Léré, Timbuktu, on April 29, killing at least nine
soldiers, wounding six, and taking another six hostage. In the
ensuing fighting, the army killed up to ten militants, injured
16 others, and destroyed vehicles belonging to the attackers.
Between April 29 and May 22, CMA militants and security
forces clashed several times in the regions Timbuktu, leaving
at least 47 people dead and more than 40 injured in total.
On May 15, the Platform signed the peace accord with the
government in a ceremony in the capital Bamako, which was
boycotted by CMA. One day after the Platform had withdrawn
from Ménaka, Gao, which it had seized from CMA in April, the
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