ConflictBarometer_2015

ASIA AND OCEANIA
national power between various opposition groups and the
government escalated to a violent crisis.
The first free and fair general elections since 1990 were held.
Nevertheless, the veto power of the military remained contentious
and numerous pro-democracy protests took place.
Police forces cracked down the demonstrations, injuring at
least 100 activists and arresting over 180.
For instance, from March 3 onwards, about 500 police officers
blocked the march against the National Education Law
of approx. 200 protesters from Letpadan, Pegu Division, to
Yangon. The law had been questioned by student groups for,
among other issues, a lack of consultation during its drafting
process. Protesters sought refuge in a nearby monastery in
Letpadan. On March 5 in Yangon, the police cracked down
on approx. 200 students and activists protesting against the
ongoing police blockade in Letpadan. Demonstrators were
beaten with batons, leaving many injured. The police arrested
at least eight protesters. Five days later, the police stormed
the monastery after student protesters had attempted to
break through the blockade, striking students and Buddhist
monks with batons and leaving at least 100 injured. The
police arrested at least 120. In the following months, many
detainees were released. However, at least 50 activists remained
in prison facing prison terms of nine and a half years.
Following protests in January by The 88 Generation Peace
and Open Society, a political organization that had emerged
after the student-led uprising of 1988, on June 2, President
Thein Sein announced a bill to amend the Constitution. The
amendment would lower the threshold of votes needed for
future constitutional amendments from 75 to 70 percent and
would decentralize political power. The 2008 adopted Constitution
guaranteed the military 25 percent of parliamentary
seats, granting them a veto power over constitutional amendments.
The National League for Democracy (NLD), Myanmar's
main opposition party, criticized the proposals as insufficient.
On June 25, the parliament voted against major changes to
the Constitution, officially keeping the military's power in the
parliament in place.
On January 18, NLD met with the United Nationalities Alliance,
an umbrella group of ethnically based political parties
[→ Myanmar (KIA, KIO / Kachin State); Myanmar (MNDAA,
Shan State)]. On April 10, representatives of the government,
parliament, political opposition, and ethnic minorities, among
them President Thein Sein and NLD chairwoman Aung San
Suu Kyi, met for the so-called six-party talks on constitutional
reform in the capital Naypyidaw. They agreed on further talks.
In advance of the polls, on July 30, 6,966 inmates, including
political prisoners, were granted presidential amnesty. During
the official campaigning period lasting from September 8
to November 6, campaigning was restricted in the provinces
of Kachin and Shan due to the volatile security situation [→
Myanmar (KIA, KIO / Kachin State); Myanmar (MNDAA / Shan
State)].
On November 8, general elections were held with the NLD
winning an absolute majority in parliament. Although some
procedural irregularities occurred, international election observers
perceived the election as peaceful, free, fair, and
transparent. After the announcement of the final results at
the end of November, Thein Sein and Suu Kyi met on December
2 in order to discuss how government and opposition can
ensure a peaceful transfer of responsibilities. On December
10, the outgoing Union Solidarity and Development Party and
the NLD appointed representatives to negotiate the transfer
of power until the inauguration of the succeeding government
by the end of March 2016.
nwu
NEPAL (MADHESIS, THARUS / TERAI)
Intensity: 3 | Change: | Start: 2004
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
UDMF, MJF-L, TJSC vs. government
autonomy
The autonomy conflict in the western Terai region between
various Madhesi and Tharu groups and the government escalated
to a violent crisis. The conflict was characterized by
highly violent protests and blockades directed against the
new constitution as well as the proposed demarcation of the
future provinces. Since its establishment in 2008, the Constituent
Assembly had not been able to promulgate a new
constitution.
Until April, Madhesi parties, mainly organized under the
umbrella of the United Democratic Madhesi Front (UDMF),
participated in protests staged by the oppositional 30-partyalliance
led by the Unified Communist Party Nepal Maoist
(UCPN-M) [→ Nepal (opposition)]. They demanded the introduction
of an ethnic-based federalism and the promulgation
of the new constitution by consensus and not by a two-third
majority as set out in the Interim Constitution. The protests
frequently escalated to clashes with security forces. For instance,
on February 28, approx. 35,000 protesters gathered
in the capital Kathmandu. In the following clashes, around
two dozen protesters were injured. Demonstrations stopped
after an earthquake on April 25, which left up to 9,000 people
dead.
On June 8, UCPN-M, Nepali Congress, the Communist
Party Nepal United Marxist-Leninist, and the Madhesi People's
Rights Forum Democratic (MJF-L) signed a 16-pointagreement
suggesting to divide Nepal into eight provinces,
of which each would compromise plain and hill areas. UDMF
rejected the agreement and expelled MJF-L two days later.
The subsequent demonstrations escalated on July 20, when
over 50 protesters were injured in clashes with the police in
central and southern Nepal.
After another agreement proposing a six-provinces-model
had been signed on August 8, protests and bandhs turned
violent on August 10 and 11. Tharus, mainly represented
by the Tharuhat Joint Struggle Committee (TJSC), took to the
street opposing Karnali zone's integration into Farwest region
and demanding a separate Tharu province. In Surkhet district,
Midwest region, security forces opened fire at protesters attacking
government offices, killing two and injuring six.
Two weeks later, ruling and opposition parties brought forward
a seven-province-model proposing Karnali as part of
the Midwest. However, the Tharus and Madhesis rejected
the model and continued to demand separate provinces. On
August 24, approx. 20,000 Tharus staged a demonstration in
Tikapur, Farwest. Some protesters attacked police forces with
knives, axes, and spears, killing at least nine police personnel.
The government deployed paramilitary forces and imposed a
curfew.
Violent protests continued until the end of the year, leaving
over 50 people dead. After the Constituent Assembly
had passed a new constitution on September 20, the UDMF
blocked border points with India and the East-West Highway.
Hence, the supply of petrol, medicine, and grocery to central
Nepal and Kathmandu was cut off. The following petrol
shortage nearly caused a standstill of traffic and domestic
flights, which was eased by Chinese petrol donations. Nepal
accused India of closing the borders, but India denied this.
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