ConflictBarometer_2015

EUROPE
Lukashenka, on the other, continued.
The People's Referendum comprised of the Belarus People's
Front (PBNF), the Belarusian Social-Democratic Party Assembly
(BSDP), the ''For Freedom'' movement and the ''Tell the
Truth'' campaign, as well as several smaller oppositional organizations.
On January 1, a new amendment to the Law on Mass Media
came into force, allowing the Ministry of Information to
block websites after two formal warnings concerning the contant
of the pages which would ''threaten national interests.''
Following the amendment, the ministry blocked the online
magazine kyky from June 18 to June 24 and gave a formal
warning to four websites, among others, to the homepage of
the UCP.
On August 28, Lukashenka pardoned six political prisoners,
among them the former presidential candidate and leader of
BSDP NG Mikola Statkevich. On October 10, one day before
the presidential elections, between 1,000 and 5,000 people
staged an unauthorized rally led by Statkevich, Anatol
Lyabedzka of the UCP, and civil rights activist and former
''Tell the Truth'' chairman Uladzimir Nyaklyayew in the capital
Minsk, calling on eligible voters to boycott the elections.
Since most opposition parties remained absent or did not
succeed in collecting the necessary 100,000 signatures in
order to nominate their own candidates, the elections took
place in the absence of presidential candidates of major opposition
parties like the BSDP NG or UCP.
Lukashenka won the elections with over 80 percent of the
votes, enabling his fifth term. The OSCE and UN called the
elections ''non-transparent and unfair.'' Main opposition candidate
Tatsiana Karatkevich, who was initially nominated by
the People's Referendum, but later opposed by several opposition
parties and mainly supported by the ''Tell the Truth''
campaign, called on the Central Election Commission to revoke
the election results. Unlike the presidential elections in
previous years, no mass post-election protests took place.
Opposition groups further held one unauthorized and two
authorized rallies in Minsk between March and November,
drawing between respectively 400 and 2,000 participants.
During the two authorized rallies, state authorities detained
a total of seven participants.
On December 8, PBNF, BSDP Assembly and the ''For Freedom''
movement withdrew from the coalition due to disagreement
with ''Tell the Truth'' over the presidential candidate and the
implementation of the election campaign. One month earlier,
UCP, the ''For Freedom'' movement and the Belarusian
Christian Democracy party had announced the establishment
of a center-right coaltion to run for the 2016 parliamentary
elections.
Following the non-violent elections and the release of the
political prisoners, the EU and the US announced on October
29 to suspend most of the sanctions on Belarus for four and
six months, respectively. However, the arm embargo as well
as sanctions on four indiviuals remained in place. jkr
CYPRUS TURKEY
Intensity: 2 | Change: | Start: 2005
Conflict parties:
Cyprus vs. Turkey
Conflict items: territory, international power, resources
The conflict between Cyprus and Turkey over international
power, the maritime border demarcation, and resources such
as oil in the Aegean Sea continued on a non-violent level. A
prominent issue was the further three-month extension of a
Turkish seismic vessel's mission to explore parts of Cyprus'
Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) for hydrocarbon reserves
which was announced on January 6. The mission caused
diplomatic tensions, also with regard to the Cyprus peace
talks [→ Cyprus (TRNC / Northern Cyprus)]. For instance,
on February 19, Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades stated
that the peace talks would not be resumed unless Turkey refrained
from suchlike explorations. On March 30, the Foreign
Ministry of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC)
announced the withdrawal of the seismic vessel and called
for an immediate resumption of the talks. Three months
later, the European Parliament stressed that Cyprus would
have a right to lawfully dispose its EEZ and is able to make
agreements on it. Furthermore, the Parliament called upon
Turkey to sign and ratify the UN Convention on the Law of
the Sea, to withdraw its troops from Northern Cyprus, and to
stop the settlement of Turkish citizens in TRNC. Beforehand,
on May 26, Cyprus had sent a protest note to the UN stating
that throughout April, Turkey had repeatedly violated Cyprus'
national air space, the Nicosia Flight Information Region, and
Cypriot territorial waters. Further tensions arose on October
17 when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited the
TRNC to inaugurate a new Turkish pipeline supplying Northern
Cyprus with drinking water. The Cypriot government
protested Erdogan's visit and claimed that the pipeline violated
international law.
After talks on the Turkish EU accession had recommenced on
November 29, Turkey refused to apply the EU visa liberalization
to Greek Cypriots, and reaffirmed its non-recognition of
the Republic of Cyprus in a letter to the European Commission.
As a consequence, Cyprus reiterated its veto against a
Turkish EU membership on December 15. jra
FYROM (OPPOSITION)
Intensity: 3 | Change: | Start: 2014
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
opposition movement vs. government
system/ideology, national power
The conflict concerning national power and the orientation
of the political system between the government of Prime
Minister Nikola Gruevski and a broad opposition movement
escalated to a violent crisis. Throughout the year, different
social groups staged protests demanding political changes,
such as Gruevski's resignation, and a fight against corruption.
On May 5, amid a prominent wiretapping scandal, the leader
of the oppositional Social Democratic Union for Macedonia
(SDSM), Zoran Zaev, accused Gruevski and Interior Minister
Gordana Jankuloska of attempting to cover up the murder
of one civilian by a police officer in 2011. A violent antigovernment
protest followed on the same day when up to
2,000 people gathered in the capital Skopje. Protesters set
garbage containers on fire and threw stones at the police,
which used tear gas, water cannon, and stun grenades. In
total, 38 police officers and one civilian were injured and
dozens of people arrested. The following day, more than
1,000 people rallied again. On May 12, Jankuloska, Minister
of Transport and Communications Mile Janakieski, and
Head of the Secret Police Saso Mijalkov resigned due to the
rallies. On May 17, tens of thousands gathered for another
anti-government protest, calling for Gruevski's resignation,
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