ConflictBarometer_2015

MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB
between GNC and HoR, the UN criticized the new military
campaign as an attempt to undermine the peace process. The
same day, Operation Dignity fighters attacked BRSC making
use of artillery fire and airstrikes. Confrontations left six
of the former dead and ten wounded. Clashes continued
in various Benghazi neighborhoods around November 10,
reportedly leaving more than 15 fighters on the side of the
internationally recognized government dead. In the course
of the year, Operation Dignity forces frequently carried out
aerial bombardments on BRSC positions. Especially towards
the end of the year, with IS getting more involved in Benghazi,
it became less clear which of the groups was targeted by LNA
and involved in confrontations.
In Tobruk, the prime minister of the internationally recognized
government, Abdullah Thinni, stated that an assassination on
him failed on May 26.
Further in eastern Libya, in the district of Derna, internationally
recognized government forces were involved in
confrontations with the Derna Mujahideen Shura Council
(DMSC), particularly in the first half of the year. On January
10, clashes in the area of Ain Mara left five LNA troops and at
least the same number of DMSC members dead. More than a
dozen were wounded on both sides. Confrontations between
LNA and Islamist fighters in the same area on February 2
claimed the lives of at least ten LNA soldiers and left around
25 wounded. Between June 27 and 30, DMSC killed about
20 troops while a number of its forces also died in the course
of confrontations around Ain Mara. LNA launched airstrikes
on Derna before as well as after the expulsion of the IS by
DMSC [→ Syria, Iraq et al. (IS)]. For instance, on July 13,
it bombarded DMSC headquarters, killing at least one and
wounding four people.
Throughout the year, representatives of Libya's two rival
parliaments frequently participated in UN-led peace talks in
order to form a national unity government. A major issue
was the future role of Haftar. Whereas GNC made a unity
government conditional upon his replacement, HoR rejected
this demand. In October, UNSMIL presented the agreement's
final draft and announced Faiz al-Saraj Prime Minister of the
national unity government. Neither of the parliaments officially
voted on the agreement and GNC continued to demand
modifications. Besides, GNC claimed UN envoy Bernardino
León to be biased towards HoR, which was aggravated with
the revelation of the envoy's post-UNSMIL job position in
the United Arab Emirates, a supporter of HoR. Separate from
UN-talks, GNC and HoR initiated a Libyan-Libyan Dialogue,
signing a declaration of principles on December 5. HoR and
GNC were both internally split over the UN initiative, while
their presidents, Aqila Salah and Nuri Abu Sahmein, backed
the Libyan-Libyan Dialogue and rejected the UN agreement
after their meeting in Malta on December 15. However, individual
MPs from both parliaments signed the UN-brokered
deal two days later in Shirkhat, Morocco. sul
MOROCCO (POLISARIO / WESTERN SAHARA)
Intensity: 3 | Change: | Start: 1975
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
POLISARIO vs. government
secession
The violent conflict between the Popular Front of the Liberation
of Saguia al-Hamra and Rio de Oro (POLISARIO) and
the government over the secession of Western Sahara continued.
Ahmed Boukhari, POLISARIO representative at the
UN, stressed in September that the only solution to the conflict
was ''a free, just, and fair referendum'' and frequently
called upon the UN to initialize negotiations with Morocco. In
contrast to the group's leadership, POLISARIO splinter group
Khat Achahid favored Morocco's 2007 autonomy plan for
Western Sahara. UN Envoy to the Western Sahara Christopher
Ross stated in March that the establishment of a state
led by POLISARIO had become impossible due to a lack of
consensus within the group.
Throughout the year, demonstrators in different cities of
Western Sahara repeatedly demanded independence from
the Moroccan government and condemned the exploitation
of natural resources. Frequently, government forces violently
dispersed protests by Sahrawis. For instance, on January
8, Sahrawi women protested for independence in the city
al-Aaiún, Laâyoune-Boujdour-Sakia El Hamra region. Police
forces, both uniformed and in plainclothes, attacked them
with sticks, causing injuries. On April 14, Sahrawis held a
demonstration in al-Aaiún calling for an independent human
rights monitoring system in Western Sahara. After police
forces had attacked them with rocks, the protesters fled into
the house of Aminatou Haidar, head of the Collective of
Sahrawi Human Rights Defenders, where she was hosting
Sahrawi rights activists and UN staff. Police forces attempted
to enter the premises forcefully.
On April 28, the UNSC extended MINURSO in the disputed
territory until 04/30/16. The resolution called on Morocco
and POLISARIO to conduct negotiations for a ''just, lasting,
and mutually acceptable political situation.''
On November 6, King of Morocco Mohammed VI visited al-
Aaiún. POLISARIO Secretary-General Mohammed Abledaziz
called the king's speech a direct ''confrontation with the UN.''
Despite rumors about Abledaziz's resignation from POLIS-
ARIO's leadership, officials at Dakhla camp, Algeria, re-elected
him for the twelfth consecutive time on December 23. Khat
Achahid criticized the ''closed election process'' and called
on all Sahrawis to reject the election results. sge
OMAN (OPPOSITION)
Intensity: 1 | Change: | Start: 2011
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
govern-
opposition movement vs.
ment
system/ideology
The dispute over reforms in the political system between
opposition groups and the government continued. On January
21, the police arrested opposition activist Saeed Jaddad
for undermining the state's prestige, inciting protest, and
spreading information that would cause public disturbance.
In two trials, on March 8 and 31, Jaddad was sentenced to
four years in prison, a fine of OMR 2,700 and received a
publication ban. On April 10, Jaddad was released on bail
and again arrested on November 25 for disseminating material
that, in view of the government, would undermine public
order. Throughout the year, at least 14 opposition activists
were arrested and held captive for periods ranging from a
few hours to up to several months.
In February, a citizenship law was introduced allowing the
state to revoke citizenship from members of groups supporting
principles considered to harm the state's interests. On
October 28, the government passed a law prohibiting any
member of an elected council to publish news targeting the
state's prestige or aiming to weaken confidence in it or to
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