ConflictBarometer_2015

GLOBAL CONFLICT PANORAMA
CONFLICT ITEMS
The Heidelberg Methodology of Conflict Research
differ-entiates between ten conflict items defined as
material or non-material goods which are claimed by the
direct conflict actors through constituent conflict
measures. Two of these represent exclusively interstate
items (Territory, International Power), while five are
solely subjects of internal conflicts (National Power,
Secession, Autonomy, Subnational Predominance, and
Decolonization). The remaining items, System/Ideology,
Resources, as well as the residual item Other, may be
part of intrastate, interstate, or substate conflicts.
Moreover, a conflict may feature several items or
change its item(s) over time.
As in previous years, frequent combinations of conflict
items in 2015 were System/Ideology paired with National
Power as well as Subnational Predominance with
Resources, and in the interstate dimension Territory
combined with Resources. System/Ideology was once again
by far the most prevalent conflict item. It was featured as
the sole item or one item among several others in 155 of
the total 409 conflicts. Actors in these conflicts aimed at
changing or preserving the polit-ical or economic system
or were concerned with ideological differences, e.g. striving
for a theocracy. Nine of the 19 wars observed in 2015
featured this item, distributed among the Middle East and
Maghreb (4), Sub-Saharan Africa (3), Asia and Oceania (1),
and Europe (1). Altogether, System/Ideology was part of 99
of the 223 violent conflicts observed.
Conflicts that included the claim of Resources, i.e. natural
resources, raw materials, or the profit generated thereof,
amounted to 98 cases and were especially prone to
violence. Of the total number, about two thirds (63) were
conducted violently and nine conflicts fought over
resources reached the intensity level of war. Six of these
wars took place in Sub-Saharan Africa, one each in the
Americas, Europe, and in the Middle East and Maghreb.
While in the latter region eight of the nine conflicts over
this item involved violence, this was the case in about two
thirds of resource conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa (18/27),
made up around 60 percent in Asia and Oceania (17/28)
and around 80 percent in the Americas (19/26). In Europe,
only one out of the eight conflicts over this item included
violent means.
With a total of 93 cases, National Power ranked third this
year, displaying heterogeneous regional distributions concerning
violence. In total, 57 National Power conflicts were
conducted violently, including eight wars. While violence
was used by conflict actors in about one third of the
National Power conflicts in Asia and Oceania (9/19), in Sub-
Saharan Africa this was the case for two thirds (25/36) and
in the Middle East and Maghreb the share was about half of
the conflicts (13/22). In the Americas, all five conflicts over
Na-tional Power constituted violent crises, while in Europe
five out of eleven conflicts over this item were violent.
Subnational Predominance, defined as the de facto control
of an area or population, accounted for 87 cases. It was part
of two conflicts in Europe, twelve in the Middle East and
Maghreb as well as in the Americas, 30 in Sub-Saharan
Africa, and 31 in Asia and Oceania. In total, three of the six
wars over Subnational Predominance were observed in Sub-
Saharan Africa, and one each in Asia and Oceania, the
Middle East and Maghreb, and the Americas.
A total of 108 conflicts concerned Autonomy and
Secession, with the latter accounting for 48 cases. While
only one con-flict in the Americas dealt with secession, it
appeared more frequently throughout Asia and Oceania
(19), Europe (15), Sub-Saharan Africa (8), and the Middle
East and Maghreb (5). Conflicts regarding Autonomy, i.e. the
achievement or exten-sion of political autonomy of a nonstate
group or dependent region without claiming
independence, amounted to a total of 62 cases. In total,
24 Autonomy conflicts took place in Asia, 13 in Europe,
twelve in Africa, eight in the Middle East and Maghreb, and
five in the Americas. Of the 62 Autonomy conflicts, 26
included the use of violence, with twelve cases in Asia and
Oceania, five in both Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle
East and Maghreb, and three in the Americas. One of the
13 conflicts in Europe concerning this item was conducted
violently.
The items least prone to violence were Territory and
Interna-tional Power. Conflicts over Territory, defined as the
intended change of an interstate border, accounted for a
total of 46. Out of these disputed territories, 14 were
located in Asia and Oceania, eleven in the Americas, nine
in Europe, seven in the Middle East and Maghreb, and five
in Sub-Saharan Africa. International Power struggles, i.e.
conflicts over changes in the power structure of
international systems on global or re-gional level, totaled
35. A threat of force was observed in 21 of these power
struggles this year, whereas in six cases states resorted to
violent means. Conflicts over Territory included the threat
to use violence in 18 cases and the actual use of violence
in nine, marking a slight decrease from last year's twelve
cases. No highly violent conflict between two or more states
was observed in 2015. (peh)
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