ConflictBarometer_2015

MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB
its allies, and opposition groups fought against the so-called
Islamic State [→ Syria, Iraq et al. (IS)]. According to a human
rights organization, the death toll rose to approx. 250,000
since the beginning of the conflict in March 2011, reporting
more than 50,000 fatalities in 2015. As of December, at least
4.3 million people sought refuge in neighboring countries
and 6.6 million were internally displaced. On December 18,
the UNSC unanimously adopted Resolution 2254 outlining a
road map for a ceasefire and a peace process.
The removal of Syria's chemical weapons, led by the joint
OPCW-UN mission, continued [→ Syria USA]. According
to OPCW-UN, 98 percent of the production sites had been
destroyed by October. However, the Syrian American Medical
Society stated that between mid-March and June, ten people
were killed and 530 sought medical treatment after having
been attacked with barrel bombs containing chlorine in Idlib
governorate. The government denied the allegations.
In Aleppo governorate, military and opposition forces clashed
heavily throughout the year. The government mostly conducted
airstrikes, while the opposition employed artillery,
mortars, TOW rockets, and IEDs. Moreover, Aleppo city continued
to be divided between government and opposition
groups. Backed by Russian air force and Iranian Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps (IRGC) as well as Iraqi Shiite militias,
government forces regained control of some parts of southern
Aleppo in the second half of the year. In February, Jabhat
al-Nusra, Jaish al-Muhajiren wal-Ansar, and the al-Sham Front
repeatedly fought with government forces over the villages
of Rityan, Duweir al-Zeitoun, and Herdeetnin, north of Aleppo
city. By February 24, reportedly 129 pro-government and
116 opposition fighters had been killed in the clashes. The
opposition groups could recapture the villages, detaining 30
pro-government fighters. In mid-October, government forces
supported by the Russian air force as well as Iranian and
Iraqi Shiite militias started an offensive in southern Aleppo.
The aim was to regain control of Aleppo city and to break
the siege over the Shiite majority towns of Nubl and Zahraa,
northern Aleppo. Approx. 1,000 Iraqi Shiite militia members
from the Kataib Hezbollah and 2,000 IRGC fighters under Major
General Qasem Soleimani were involved in the offensive.
Subsequently, opposition groups reinforced their positions
with hundreds of fighters from northern Aleppo and Aleppo
city. Between October 16 and 26, the government recaptured
15 towns from opposition groups, leaving at least 40 fighters
dead. According to the UN, 35,000 people were displaced
due to the offensive. On December 12, government troops
attacked the opposition north of Aleppo city with Russian
air force carrying out at least 40 airstrikes, cutting off the
opposition's major supply route to the governorate's capital.
In Homs governorate, the military and opposition fighters
repeatedly clashed in Homs city, with the former controlling
almost all neighborhoods. On December 2, both parties
agreed on a conditional truce, permitting anti-government
forces to leave safely. In the following days, hundreds of
people were evacuated from al-Waer neighborhood of Homs
city. Mainly Jabhat al-Nusra fighters left al-Waer, whereas
the majority of moderate opposition militants stayed. On
December 16, a twin bomb attack at a government-controlled
Shiite neighborhood in Homs city left 16 people dead.
Starting in November 2014, government forces intensified
airstrikes on cities such as Douma and towns in Eastern
Ghouta, Rif Dimasqh governorate. In response, between the
end of January and the beginning of February, Jaish al-Islam
led an offensive from its strongholds in Eastern Ghouta,
attacking the capital Damascus. In the first three months of
the year, over 3,000 people were evacuated from Eastern
Ghouta. On September 9, Jaish al-Islam started an offensive
against government artillery battalions in Tell Kurdi, seizing
the area within one day. The army had previously attacked
opposition-stronghold Douma from its positions in Tell Kurdi.
On December 25, the head of Jaish al-Islam, Zahran Alloush,
was killed along with several other leaders during a government
airstrike east of Damascus.
In the first half of the year, opposition groups advanced
in Hama, Idlib, and Latakia governorates, gaining control
of areas along the Sahl al-Ghab plain, which separates the
central governorates from the coastal governorate Latakia
a government stronghold. Syrian and Russian warplanes
increasingly conducted airstrikes in the area in an attempt to
prevent a further advance of the groups towards to coastal
region.
The government lost control over large areas in Idlib after
an opposition alliance had launched an offensive in the
beginning of the year. For instance, on February 28, Jabhat
al-Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham, and Jund al-Aqsa seized the governorate's
capital Idlib after four days of fighting. On March
25, Jabhat al-Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham, Jund al-Aqsa, and several
other groups formally established the umbrella group Jaish
al-Fatah. On May 5, Jaish al-Fatah seized Idlib's last major
military base, forcing the army to withdraw. One month later,
the alliance took control over government checkpoints on the
Ariha-Latakia highway, killing dozens of soldiers and taking
30 hostages. By September, Jaish al-Fatah had captured most
of Idlib. Syrian and Russian warplanes continued to conduct
airstrikes on opposition-held areas of the governorate.
In Hama governorate, Jaish al-Fatah repeatedly led attacks
against government forces, attempting to fully seize the Sahl
al-Ghab plains. At the end of April, more than 100 fighters
from both sides were killed during three days of clashes.
On July 27, hundreds of Jaish al-Fatah fighters joined the
offensive against government forces in Sahl al-Ghab plains,
using artillery, rocket launchers, and self-made missiles. The
group seized several hills and advanced towards a military
camp. On August 18, government forces recaptured some
parts of the area after heavy shelling, leaving at least six Jaish
al-Fatah fighters dead. Around 30 villages were severely
damaged during clashes, forcing residents to flee towards
the Turkish border.
The access to Sahl al-Ghab increasingly enabled Jaish al-
Fatah to re-enter Latakia and to attack targets from the
al-Nabi Younis hill in the Jabal al-Akrad mountains. In the
beginning of March, the army recaptured the village of Dorin
in Jabal al-Akrad. One week later, a large-scale Jaish al-Fatah
attack on the village left 50 killed from both sides. On August
13, Jaish al-Fatah conducted a rocket attack on Latakia city,
killing two civilians and wounding 14. Due to intensified
Russian airstrikes against Jaish al-Fatah positions in Latakia,
the militants partly retreated and reinforced troops in Hama.
Between mid-October and the end of December, military and
Jaish al-Fatah fighters were involved in heavy clashes over
the village of Salma, killing hundreds from both sides and
destroying thousands of military vehicles. On October 20,
opposition fighters attacked Russian military personnel with
mortar shells in al-Nabi Younis, killing three and wounding
15. On December 12, government forces regained the al-
Nabi Younis hilltop, killing several militants. In subsequent
clashes, opposition fighters regained the hill within three
days.
In the southern governorates Dara'a and Quneitra, the government
reinforced their troops in an attempt to repel
opposition fighters from the area. Reportedly, Iranian commanders
directed the government offensive in southern
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