ConflictBarometer_2015
ConflictBarometer_2015
ConflictBarometer_2015
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA<br />
the constitutional amendment. After authorities had banned<br />
a planned opposition protest, thousands of anti-government<br />
protesters, however, held a demonstration in Brazzaville on<br />
October 20. The police fired warning shots and used tear gas<br />
to disperse the demonstrators, while the latter installed barricades<br />
and set tires on fire. Subsequently, the police allegedly<br />
opened fire at the crowd, killing at least four people after<br />
protesters had refused to disperse. FROCAD claimed that at<br />
least 20 people were killed. Demonstrators also attacked police<br />
stations in the southern part of the city. Simultaneously,<br />
the government shut down phone lines and internet services<br />
in the capital. In addition, a FROCAD-organized protest took<br />
place in Point-Noire, eponymous region, where police shot at<br />
demonstrators, leaving at least two people dead and three injured<br />
on October 17. In the referendum on October 25, more<br />
than 92 percent voted in favor of the amended version of the<br />
constitution with an electoral turnout of about 72 percent.<br />
The changes allowed the president to run for a third term<br />
and increased the maximum age of presidential candidates<br />
to over 70. The opposition accused the government of having<br />
forged the turnout figure, estimating a turnout of around ten<br />
percent. They had called for a boycott of the referendum and<br />
had urged their supporters to avoid violence. On October<br />
30, after authorities had renewed a ban on protests in the<br />
capital, several hundred opposition supporters attended a<br />
ceremony in Brazzaville, commemorating the people killed<br />
during anti-government protests. On November 6, Nguesso<br />
promulgated the new constitution. The same day, opposition<br />
groups met with UN-appointed mediator Abdoulaye Bathily,<br />
again demanding the annulment of the amendment. On December<br />
1, FROCAD President Paulin Makaya was sentenced<br />
to jail for his participation in the protest on October 20, arson,<br />
and the illegal possession of weapons. Between December<br />
20 and 23, the police arrested at least 100 people in southern<br />
Brazzaville. While human rights organizations accused the<br />
security forces of detaining opposition members, the police<br />
claimed to have detained criminals.<br />
On December 22, Nguesso announced to hold presidential<br />
elections in the first trimester in 2016 instead of in June.<br />
Five days later, opposition groups declared to participate<br />
only under certain conditions, demanding, for instance, the<br />
establishment of an independent electoral commission. jas<br />
SENEGAL (MFDC / CASAMANCE)<br />
Intensity: 3 | Change: | Start: 1982<br />
Conflict parties:<br />
Conflict items:<br />
MFDC vs. government<br />
secession<br />
The conflict over the secession of the Casamance region<br />
between the Casamance Movement of Democratic Forces<br />
(MFDC) and the government escalated to a violent crisis despite<br />
ongoing peace efforts.<br />
In the course of the year, violence was restricted to the<br />
Ziguinchor region in Casamance. On April 8, fights involving<br />
members of MFDC and the government between the towns<br />
of Siganar and Emaye, Ziguinchor, left several MFDC members<br />
injured. In retaliation, MFDC militants attacked an army<br />
post in Emaye three days later. In the exchange of gunfire,<br />
one soldier was wounded while numerous members of MFDC<br />
were allegedly killed. On August 15, MFDC militants attacked<br />
several vehicles in Diarone, Ziguinchor, robbing the passengers<br />
and raping one woman. They had disappeared into the<br />
forest before members of the army arrived. When members<br />
of MFDC resisted in a drug raid in Mongone, Ziguinchor, on<br />
October 26, a firefight between the militants and authorities<br />
broke out. There were no fatalities, but several MFDC members<br />
were arrested. Four days later, at least 20 members of<br />
MFDC used RPGs to attack soldiers on the National Road 5<br />
between the villages Badia and Djignaky, Ziguinchor. At least<br />
three soldiers were wounded in the fighting while injuries<br />
among members of MFDC were reported.<br />
Throughout the year, efforts to resolve the conflict continued.<br />
When President Macky Sall visited Casamance for a week in<br />
February, he inaugurated several development projects as<br />
part of a greater economic strategy intended to resolve the<br />
conflict in the region. Women's organizations marched several<br />
times, calling for ultimate peace in the region and their<br />
inclusion in the peace process. For instance, they protested<br />
on May 3 in Kédougou in the eponymous region. On May<br />
23, several hundred women belonging to different women's<br />
organizations from Guinea-Bissau and Casamance marched<br />
from the airport to the Place de héros in Guinea-Bissau's<br />
capital Bissau and handed over a memorandum to the parliament's<br />
president. The same objectives were discussed during<br />
a conclave held by women from Senegal, the Gambia, and<br />
Guinea-Bissau that took place in the city of Ziguinchor in the<br />
eponymous region from September 18 to 19. On December<br />
26, 120 imams and scholars jointly called for peace in the<br />
region during sessions of Koran reading and praying taking<br />
place in the community Suelle, Ziguinchor. joh<br />
SOMALIA (HABR GEDIR BIYMAL / LOWER<br />
SHABELLE)<br />
Intensity: 3 | Change: | Start: 2013<br />
Conflict parties:<br />
Conflict items:<br />
Habr Gedir militias vs. Biymal militias<br />
subnational predominance<br />
The violent crisis over subnational predominance between<br />
the Habr Gedir clan and the Biymal clan in the Lower Shabelle<br />
region continued. Tensions rose in recent years between the<br />
Biymal clan, who initially populated the region, and the Habr<br />
Gedir clan, who resettled to Lower Shabelle in more recent<br />
times.<br />
On January 10, government administrators initiated mediation<br />
talks between the two rival clans in Qoryolay district<br />
and restarted talks in Afgooye district later that month. The<br />
president of South West state, Sharif Sheikh Aden, led the<br />
conference in which both clans participated. They signed a<br />
nine-point agreement on January 28 that included obeying<br />
Somali customary law as well as the legal system of the<br />
government and the acceptance of the presence of security<br />
forces in the area. On May 23, reports claimed that fighting<br />
between two clan militias in the town of Marka caused casualties.<br />
A few days later, the town commissioner denied any<br />
fighting between the two rival clans had taken place, while<br />
traditional elders called for the end of fighting. On June<br />
17, the two clans reached a ceasefire agreement. However,<br />
on July 5, fighting broke out in Buufoow locality, leaving at<br />
least two people dead and several injured. On August 8,<br />
fighting between clan militias broke out again in Marka town,<br />
resulting in the death of at least three people. The AU and<br />
the government ordered the relocation of AU peacekeepers<br />
and government troops to Marka. While AU soldiers captured<br />
the town of Gendershe on October 15, an AU soldier shot<br />
dead a traditional clan elder and injured two bystanders.<br />
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