ConflictBarometer_2015

MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB
state between the Palestinian National Authority (PNA), led
by President Mahmoud Abbas of the al-Fatah party, and the
Israeli government continued. On January 1, the Government
of Palestine accepted the jurisdiction of the International
Criminal Court retroactively from 07/13/14, acceding to the
Rome Statute on January 2.
Throughout the year, Palestinians increasingly attacked Israeli
security personnel and civilians. Especially stabbing attacks
and car ramming attacks increased. For instance, on March 6,
a Palestinian drove his car into a crowd of people standing
at a tram stop near Jerusalem. At least five people were
injured. After the attack, the perpetrator attempted to stab
passengers with a knife before he was shot and wounded by
the Israeli police. Subsequently, Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
conducted raids, searches, and arrests in the West Bank and
East Jerusalem.
Furthermore, Israeli settlers repeatedly attacked Palestinians.
For instance, on July 31, Israeli settlers carried out an arson
attack in the village of Duma, West Bank, killing a toddler and
his parents. Following this incident, hundreds of Palestinians
gathered in Duma vowing to take revenge. Subsequently,
Israelis and Palestinians clashed in Jerusalem's Old City and
the West Bank numerous times. On September 13, the Israeli
police entered the Al-Aqsa Mosque after being told
that Palestinians planned attacks on Jews visiting the Temple
Mount. They fired rubber bullets and stun grenades, injuring
several worshippers. Palestinian protesters threw stones and
firework. On September 18, two Palestinians were shot and
wounded while throwing firebombs at Rachel's Tomb in Bethlehem.
Furthermore, on October 3, a Palestinian stabbed and
killed two Israelis in Jerusalem's Old City, further wounding
one woman and one toddler. After these attacks, on October
4, Israel imposed a 48-hour ban on Palestinians to enter the
Old City. The day after, hundreds of Arab Israelis protested.
The imposition of the ban was followed by a series of Palestinian
attacks on a nearly daily basis. Proclaiming a ''Day of
Rage'' on October 13, Palestinians in several locations killed
three Israelis and wounded several others.
Calling for an end to the violence and for meaningful negotiations,
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon met separately
with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian
President Mahmoud Abbas in Jerusalem on October
20. Despite the visit, violence did not subside until the end
of the year. ari
fired batons against protesters who tried to march to the
French Embassy. In February, after 70 years, MB formalized
its severance into two factions. Members belonging to
the Jordanian Building Initiative called Zamzam Initiative declared
their breakaway from the main organization after the
MB Shura Council had expelled them from the organization
on February 14. Thereafter, the Zamzam Initiative applied
for registration as legal association under the name ''Muslim
Brotherhood''. On March 3, the Ministry of the Interior approved
the legal status of the breakaway faction and thereby
made it the only legal society by the name of ''Muslim Brotherhood''.
The government declared the remaining MB faction
illegal. Subsequently, the ability of the now illegal MB organization
to assemble was limited. On April 23, Minister of the
Interior Hussein al-Majali announced a prohibition of assemblies
of groups that would aim at imposing their agenda on
the country. The government denied the old MB faction to
celebrate its 70th anniversary on April 30 in a public rally,
arguing that it was now an illegal group.
On May 28, the Legislation and Opinion Bureau permitted the
government to transfer properties of the old MB to the newly
licensed MB group. The legal dispute continued in July when
the government's Department of Land and Survey transferred
ownership of seven properties worth several millions of dollars
to the new MB. During Ramadan, the government banned
the original MB from organizing public prayers, but approved
the holding of an Iftar for MB (Zamzam). Until December, a
total of 28 leaders resigned from the old MB and joined MB
(Zamzam).
Furthermore, on September 6, the Jordanian Opposition
Coalition announced its election platform. anm
LEBANON (SUNNI MILITANT GROUPS)
Intensity: 4 | Change: | Start: 2014
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
Jabhat al-Nusra, Sunni militant
groups vs. government, Hezbollah
secession, system/ideology, subnational
predominance
JORDAN (OPPOSITION)
Intensity: 1 | Change: | Start: 2011
Conflict parties: Muslim Brotherhood vs. Muslim
Brotherhood (Zamzam) vs. opposition
groups vs. government
Conflict items: system/ideology, national power
The violent crisis between opposition groups, the Muslim
Brotherhood (MB), its breakaway faction MB (Zamzam), and
the government over national power and the orientation of
the political system continued.
In a 2,000-strong demonstration organized by the MB after
Friday prayers on January 16, protesters clashed with security
forces in the capital Amman. The protesters chanted paroles
against the French magazine ''Charlie Hebdo'' as well as King
Abdullah II bin al-Hussein and Queen Rania al-Abdullah for
their participation in the commemoration of the victims of
the January 8 Paris attacks [→ Iraq, Syria et al. (IS)]. Police
The limited war over subnational predominance between
Sunni militant groups, most notably al-Qaida affiliate Jabhat
al-Nusra, on the one hand, and the government and Shiite
militia Hezbollah, on the other, continued.
The conflict was affected by the Syrian civil war and IS'
attempt to establish a base in Lebanon's northeastern border
region [→ Syria (opposition); Syria, Iraq et al. (IS)]. It mainly
took place in the Beqaa governorate, specifically in and
around the cities of Arsal, Baalbek, and Ras Baalbek, but also
spread to Tripoli, Northern governorate. Since the 08/02/14
attack by ISIS and al-Nusra in Arsal, the Lebanese Armed
Forces (LAF) maintained its hold on Arsal and continued to
execute its security plan in the Beqaa Valley, which included
a heightening of security measures and widespread raids and
arrests.
Between January and June, the LAF and Hezbollah gained
control of multiple militant's positions in the proximity of
the border with Syria, which were important for entering
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