ConflictBarometer_2015
ConflictBarometer_2015
ConflictBarometer_2015
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ASIA AND OCEANIA<br />
members in Khyber. On October 25, elders of the Utmankhial<br />
and Tharkani tribes reiterated their will to cooperate with the<br />
government at a jirga, a traditional assembly, in the village<br />
Khar, Bajaur, announcing to monitor ''suspicious activities'' in<br />
the area.<br />
In KP, at least five lashkar members were killed in a minimum<br />
of six targeted attacks. An elder of a peace committee died<br />
and two others were critically injured in gunfire when their<br />
vehicle was attacked in Tank district on March 31. On September<br />
14, one lashkar member and one civilian were shot dead<br />
in Swat district. On October 1, alleged militants shot dead a<br />
peace committee member in the same district. Three days<br />
later, an IED killed a tribal elder and injured another relative<br />
in Bannu district. cga<br />
PAKISTAN INDIA<br />
Intensity: 3 | Change: | Start: 1947<br />
Conflict parties:<br />
Conflict items:<br />
The conflict between Pakistan and India over international<br />
power, usage of the Indus river water, and the status of the<br />
Indian state of Kashmir de-escalated to a violent crisis.<br />
Between January 2 and November 17, Indian and Pakistani<br />
soldiers violated the 2003 ceasefire agreement at least 77<br />
times along the contested Line of Control (LoC) and the International<br />
Border (IB) of Jammu and Kashmir state (J&K), leaving<br />
a total of 66 people dead, among them ten Indian soldiers,<br />
20 Indian civilians, three Pakistani soldiers, and 33 Pakistani<br />
civilians. At least 170 people from both sides were injured.<br />
In 49 of these clashes both armies used heavy weapons such<br />
as mortar shells and RPGs.<br />
Between January 2 and 13, heavy cross-border firing erupted<br />
along 13 border outposts of the IB, killing three Indian soldiers,<br />
one Indian civilian, three Pakistani soldiers, five Pakistani<br />
civilians, and injuring twelve people. Subsequently,<br />
around 10,000 civilians fled the Indian border area according<br />
to Indian media reports. On January 24, the UN military observer<br />
group UNMOGIP visited the affected border area along<br />
the IB in Punjab, Pakistan. Between July 5 and September<br />
17, cross-border firing erupted in several locations along the<br />
LoC and IB. In at least 40 skirmishes involving heavy firing<br />
with mortar shells, rockets, and RPGs from both sides, five<br />
Indian soldiers, 17 Indian civilians, and 25 Pakistani civilians<br />
were killed. Additionally, five Indian soldiers, 81 Indian civilians,<br />
and 65 Pakistani civilians were injured. According to<br />
Pakistani newspapers, hundreds of residents fled the border<br />
areas. UNMOGIP visited the affected border region in<br />
Pakistan-administered Kashmir on July 20, August 18 and 29.<br />
Despite India calling off peace talks between National Security<br />
Advisors of both countries on August 22, the following<br />
months a series of bilateral talks were held, including<br />
meetings between military officials along the LoC and IB on<br />
September 10 and 21 as well as December 22. Furthermore,<br />
both prime ministers briefly met along the sidelines of the<br />
climate summit in Paris, France, on November 30, followed<br />
by a National Security Advisor meeting in Thailand's capital<br />
Bangkok on December 6. They discussed security and<br />
terrorism-related issues with a particular focus on J&K and<br />
the situation along the LoC and IB. Three days later, Indian<br />
Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj, her Pakistani counterpart<br />
Sartaj Aziz, and Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif met at<br />
the sidelines of the Heart of Asia conference in the Pakistani<br />
capital Islamabad. On December 25, Indian Prime Minister<br />
Narendra Modi unexpectedly visited the Pakistani city of Lahore,<br />
Punjab state, to meet Sharif in order to strengthen ties<br />
between the two countries. This was the first time an Indian<br />
prime minister had visited Pakistan in twelve years. Furthermore,<br />
they agreed on another meeting to take place between<br />
the National Security Advisors on 01/15/16 in order to discuss<br />
the status of Kashmir, the Siachen glacier, ''cross-border<br />
terrorism'', and water-related issues. jam<br />
PAPUA NEW GUINEA (BOUGAINVILLE)<br />
Intensity: 2 | Change: | Start: 1964<br />
Conflict parties:<br />
Conflict items:<br />
Pakistan vs. India<br />
territory, international power, resources<br />
civil society groups, MDF,<br />
Bougainville Hardliners vs. Meekamui<br />
Tribal Government, PMALA, MGU<br />
vs. ABG, BCL, government<br />
autonomy, resources, other<br />
The conflict over the conditions for the reopening of the<br />
Panguna Mine in Bougainville escalated to the level of a<br />
non-violent crisis. In 1988, the mine had been closed over<br />
tensions which had evolved into a ten-year civil war. A peace<br />
agreement signed in 2002 granted the island province autonomous<br />
control over its resources and the right to hold a<br />
referendum on independence between <strong>2015</strong> and 2020. With<br />
Bougainville entering the referendum period, the question of<br />
the copper mine's reopening returned to the center of politics.<br />
While the Autonomous Bougainville Government (ABG),<br />
led by President John Momis, and the national government in<br />
Port Moresby continued to advocate a reopening, a coalition<br />
of civil society groups and civil war veterans rejected both the<br />
proposal and the ongoing discussion. They strongly opposed<br />
the pending Bougainville Mining Act passed by the ABG on<br />
March 26. As a condition for talks over the mine's potential reopening,<br />
the ABG sought to pursue a ''Bel Kol'' reconciliation<br />
ceremony between the Panguna Mine Affected Landowner<br />
Association (PMALA) and former mine operator Bougainville<br />
Copper Limited (BCL). Informed by the Nasioi customary principle<br />
of reconciliation, known as Domang Miita, the ceremony<br />
was originally put forward by the Panguna landowners as a<br />
non-negotiable condition to reopen the mine. The Meekamui,<br />
factions of civil war veterans who were in control of different<br />
areas around the mine, remained split over the issue. While<br />
the Meekamui Government of Unity (MGU), led by Moses<br />
Pipiro, and the Meekamui Tribal Government expressed their<br />
support for Momis during the ABG election in May, the Meekamui<br />
Defence Force (MDF), led by Chris Uma, which controlled<br />
the ''No-Go-Zone'' around the mine, remained in staunch opposition<br />
to it. In May, Momis was re-elected as president of<br />
the ABG with an absolute majority despite losing votes in the<br />
area around the Panguna Mine.<br />
On March 13, the Tinputz community filed a petition signed<br />
by 700 people against the passing of the Bougainville Mining<br />
Act. Several NGOs expressed their concerns. Jimmy<br />
Miringtoro, Member of Parliament for Central Bougainville<br />
in the national government, criticized the passage of the<br />
law for being rushed before the ABG general elections and<br />
for not being subject to sufficient consultation with local<br />
communities. Objections were also raised by Sam Kauona,<br />
former leader of the Bougainville Revolutionary Army (BRA).<br />
On August 24, chairman of the Central Bougainville Council of<br />
Elders John Dona demanded Momis to halt the negotiations<br />
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