ConflictBarometer_2015

EUROPE
of movement and speech, payment of social benefits, and
allocation of food, water, energy and shelter.
Humanitarian access was restricted in certain areas due to
heavy fighting. Throughout the year, residents of several villages,
as of Pavlopil, Shyrokyne, and Vuhlehirsk in Donetsk,
as well as Kuriache, Novoborvytsi, and Popasna in Luhansk
complained about the humanitarian situation and problems
of landmines, according to OSCE Special Monitoring Mission
(SMM). On September 25, numerous NGOs like Médecins Sans
Frontières were expelled from the DNR- and LNR-controlled
areas. Throughout the year, several dozen convoys allegedly
for humanitarian aid from Russia arrived in Donbas. According
to the government, the convoys supplied DNR and
LNR with weapons, who stated in turn that the convoys only
provided humanitarian aid [→ Russia Ukraine].
SMM reported numerous ceasefire violations on an almost
daily basis in the first half of January. For instance, SMM
counted 69 ceasefire violations within 24 hours from January
4 till 5. BM-21 Grad multiple-rocket launchers (MRLs)
struck close to a bus in Volnovakha, Donetsk, on January
13, resulting in twelve people dead and 17 injured. The
battle over the control of Donetsk airport, which had begun
on 09/28/14, intensified from January 11 to 21. Over four
days, DNR forces shelled government-held positions in the
complex. On January 21, DNR fighters captured the airport
under heavy fighting and stayed in control of the airport for
the rest of the year. Fighting in other parts of the conflict
region also continued. On January 22, DNR-leader Alexander
Zakharchenko ruled out further peace talks and announced
new offensives. The same day, UN stated that 262 people
had lost heir lives in the previous nine days. On January
23, at least 30 civilians died and over 102 were injured in
a multiple-launch rocket system (MLRS) attack in Mariupol,
Donetsk. Since mid-January, DNR and LNR forces tightened
their attack on the Ukrainian-controlled city of Debaltseve,
Donetsk, with heavy artillery for several weeks. On February
9, militants announced that they had encircled Debaltseve,
with several thousand civilians and about 6,000 Ukrainian
forces trapped inside. The next day, a MRLs attack on ZSU's
headquarters in Kramatorsk, Donetsk, killed 15 and wounded
60. On February 17, militants entered the encircled town.
Although the ceasefire from Minsk II agreement should be
implemented, violations were reported from the city of Debaltseve.
Approx. 500 civilians were found dead, according
to the UN.
SMM counted several explosions, especially in the area of the
contested Donetsk airport and Shyrokyne, on an almost daily
basis in early April. On May 1, heavy shelling by both sides
occurred at Shyrokyne. On May 23, SMM reported explosions,
mortar, and artillery fire few kilometers from the north of
the railway station of Donetsk and in the village Avdiivka,
Donetsk. Up to early June, skirmishes had persisted on a daily
basis. Fighting especially affected numerous smaller places
along the line of contact. West of Donetsk City, hostilities culminated
in heavy clashes around the government-controlled
towns of Maryinka and Krasnohorivka on June 3. The government
stated, it fought off a combined DNR-Russian attack,
which allegedly included 1,000 fighters, killing up to 100
combatants. DNR on the other side blamed Kyiv and the
National Guard of Ukraine (NGU) for attacking its positions
and shelling Donetsk City with MLRS, which left at least 21
people killed and about 124 injured. Less intense fighting
continued in the following weeks. On June 22, the situation
at the Donetsk airport tensed up, when both sides used
automatic grenade launchers, heavy machine guns, and antiaircraft
weapons. On July 10, SMM counted 617 instances
of weapons fire including heavy weapons. SMM noticed
numerous violations of terms of Minsk II throughout August
and September. The government blamed DNR fighters for
an attack on its positions near the village of Starohnativka,
Donetsk, on August 10. Reportedly 400 fighters were involved,
one soldier killed and 16 wounded. Fighting and
shelling continued throughout August with both sides repeatedly
redeploying heavy weapons at the line of contact
and dozens of people killed or wounded.
The Contact Group, consisting of representatives of OSCE,
Russia, Ukraine, and the Donbas militias, announced on
August 26 that both sides agreed on a renewed ceasefire,
starting September 1. Despite that, fighting continued.
However, the intensity decreased between September and
December. On September 30, the government and the
militants struck an agreement on the withdrawal of smaller
weapons and MBTs from the line of contact, beginning October
20. The Dutch Air Safety board, mandated to investigate
the 07/17/14 crash of Malaysia Airlines flight MH 17, stated
on October 13 that a Russian-made Buk 9M38M1 missile
likely downed the plane. The same day, Russian state-owned
defense company and Buk designer Almaz-Antey announced
that MH 17 was downed from Kyiv-controlled territory with
another Buk type. On November 9, militants and government
forces engaged in Maiorsk, Donetsk, which left one soldier
wounded and several militants killed or wounded, according
to Kyiv. Violence continued with both sides blaming each
other of breaking the truce, for instance on December 27.
SMM visited military holdings of both sides almost daily,
monitoring the compliance with Minsk II concerning the withdrawal
of heavy weapons. Throughout the year, both sides
kept SMM from observing weapon holding areas or delayed
their entrances by several minutes. SMM reported several
times that the sites as well as the movements of weapons
were not in compliance with the withdrawal lines.
Throughout the year, both sides undertook diplomatic efforts.
Leaders of France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine, the
so-called Normandy format, met in Minsk on February 11 for
peace talks. On February 12, they agreed on the Minsk II
agreement: a 13-point roadmap, including a ceasefire to start
on February 15, the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the
conflict line, exchange of prisoners, withdrawal of foreign
militias from Ukrainian territory, local elections in Donbas as
well as decentralization for militant-controlled regions, and
Ukrainian control over its complete border by the end of the
year. Between April and May, both sides tried to establish
a demilitarized zone at Shyrokyne. In the German capital
Berlin on April 13, Normandy Four decided to boost the
withdrawal of heavy weapons in Donbas. They also agreed
to establish four working groups on the reconstruction of
Donbas, exchange of prisoners, and local elections. On
June 23, Normandy Four affirmed their commitment to fully
implement the Minsk agreements and agreed on the soonest
demilitarization of Shyrokyne. On July 1, DNR proclaimed
Shyrokyne as a demilitarized zone and began to withdraw
from the village.
On July 16, Ukrainian parliament passed a law to grant
militant-held regions greater autonomy. Representatives
of the Donbas militants and the Russian Foreign Ministry
criticized the proposals as inadequate. DNR and LNR representatives
stated on September 16 to hold local elections
in their territories on October 18 and November 1. The
announcement sparked protests by Kyiv, which considered
them as a violation of the terms of Minsk II. On October 6,
the militants announced to postpone elections, which was
welcomed by Normandy format representatives.
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