ConflictBarometer_2015

EUROPE
lashvili deemed ''unacceptable.'' According to the Foreign
Ministry of Georgia, Russia violated Georgian airspace during
the drills on August 19. Georgia accused Russia of further
airspace violations on December 9 and 10. The opening
of the NATO-Georgian Joint Training and Evaluation Center
(JTEC) in August, situated close to the capital Tbilisi, triggered
additional tensions. For instance, Foreign Minister Sergey
Lavrov had already called the opening a ''step towards escalation
of tension and worsening of regional security'' on
February 18.
msa
RUSSIA UKRAINE
Intensity: 2 | Change: | Start: 2003
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
Russia vs. Ukraine
territory, international power, resources,
other
The conflict over territory, international power, and the supply
of energy between Russia and Ukraine de-escalated to
a non-violent crisis. Throughout the year, Ukraine accused
Russia several times of illegal border-crossing by military
personnel.
On January 20, for instance, Ukraine reported the deployment
of at least two Russian battalions of 400 men each, multiple
rocket launchers, 20 tanks, ten missile systems, and numerous
weapon systems on its territory [→ Ukraine (Donbas)].
Russia denied the allegations.
Three days later, Ukraine estimated that 9,000 Russian soldiers
were situated on Ukrainian territory. Russian officials repeatedly
raised the possibility of deploying nuclear weapons
in Crimea as on March 25. During the year, Russia expanded
its military forces in Crimea, for instance through the deployment
of an air force division on April 30 [→ Ukraine
(Crimea)]. On October 2, OSCE Special Monitoring Mission
to Ukraine (SMM) noticed Russian-made weapon systems in
eastern Ukraine. Russia, however, consistently denied any
accusations, but admitted on December 17 the presence of
Russian personnel in eastern Ukraine. Allegedly, Ukrainian
authorities arrested at least three Russian military servicemen
in Donetsk and Luhansk oblast, in May and July. On
June 22, the secretary of Russia's security council stated that
it was impossible to keep Russians, guided by ''emotions'',
from fighting in Ukraine.
In the Minsk II agreement, signed on February 12, France, Germany,
Russia, and Ukraine agreed among others to reestablish
Ukrainian control of the border with Russia until the end of
the year. However, in the following months, Russia repeatedly
accused Kyiv of not fulfilling terms of the agreement,
especially by breaking the truce with Donbas militants and
by determining the conditions for regional self-governance
unilaterally. Ukraine canceled a local border traffic agreement
with Russia on March 4. Shortly after, Ukraine continued
constructing trenches and a barbed wire fence at the border.
On February 10, around 3,000 Russian troops started largescale
exercises in Russia's southern military district, next to
the Ukrainian border, and held further maneuvers on Crimea,
the latter involving 2,000 aircraft-troops. On February 2 and
May 21, Ukraine's parliament suspended two military cooperation
agreements with Russia. Mutual air space bans on
each other's airlines were enacted between September 25
and November 25.
Russia and Ukraine agreed on decentralization measures of
Ukraine, providing greater autonomy for the disputed territories
Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. Both sides repeatedly
stressed their support for this point at a meeting held in the
German capital Berlin on March 6.
On March 31, Ukraine-controlled energy company Naftogaz
and Russia's Gazprom agreed on an interim gas price agreement.
However, the Ukrainian government announced to
completely stop the import of gas from Russia on June 30.
Gazprom responded by halting gas supplies from July 1. Following
the second gas price agreement of September 27,
Gazprom halted imports while Ukraine stopped purchase on
November 25.
On December 21, Russia suspended the Russian-Ukrainian
Free Trade Agreement and announced to prolong a food
ban on Ukraine for another year starting 2016. A few days
later, Ukraine's parliament reacted and allowed the Ukrainian
government to impose sanctions against Russia. tbu
SERBIA (KOSOVO OPPOSITION)
Intensity: 3 | Change: NEW | Start: 2015
Conflict parties: Vetevendosje et al. vs. Kosovar government
Conflict items: system/ideology, subnational predominance
A violent crisis over the orientation of the political system
and subnational predominance erupted between Kosovar
opposition parties, led by the Albanian nationalist party
Vetevendosje, and the Kosovar government. On August 25,
Serbia and Kosovo reached an agreement on the Association
of Municipalities delegating greater administrative powers
to Kosovar areas with an ethnic Serbian majority. This was
part of a 2013 EU-brokered landmark agreement between
Serbia and Kosovo to work towards normalization [→ Serbia
(Kosovo)]. The August deal and another bilateral agreement
on demarcation with Montenegro sparked violent protests
by the opposition. Since October, three opposition parties
led by Vetevendosje tried to block the proceedings in the
Kosovo Parliament using tear gas, pepper spray, and throwing
water bottles. The opposition called for a referendum or new
elections if the government did not halt the deals.
On October 8, opposition MPs set off tear gas for the first time
in the parliament. Throughout October, November, and December,
tear gas and pepper spray were used several times
by the opposition MPs. On October 12, several hundred
protesters clashed with the police in the capital Pristina after
the arrest of former leader of Vetevendosje MP Albin Kurti.
The protesters threw cobblestones at the main police station
and torched several authorities' vehicles. Kurti urged the
protesters to continue until they prevented the deal. During
the protests, 15 people were injured. Kurti was released several
hours later. On October 24, MPs from Vetevendosje used
tear gas inside the parliamentary chamber while protesters in
front of the parliament hurled Molotov cocktails at the police.
During the protests, 40 people were injured and ten detained.
President of Kosovo Atifete Jahjaga referred the August deal
to the Constitutional Court. On November 11, the Court
put the deal on hold. Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic
criticized the decision as a violation of the agreement and a
threat to regional stability. On November 17, several hundred
opposition activists and riot police clashed in Pristina, leaving
seven people injured. Following the protests, opposition
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