ConflictBarometer_2015

MEASURES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION
NEGOTIATIONS AND TREATIES
The year 2015 saw numerous efforts by actors to settle their
conflicts. For instance, India witnessed the signing of two
peace agreements between the government and the two ethnic
groups Garo and Naga. Furthermore, the conflict between
Western states and Iran over Iran's nuclear program made
significant progress towards a normalization of relations. In
contrast, several rounds of talks between al-Houthi and the
Saudi-backed Yemeni government did not yield substantial
results. The same applied to negotiation efforts in the Sudans
and Burundi.
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Most negotiations in Sub-Saharan Africa were observed in
Sudan concerning the conflict between several tribes and
communities over subnational predominance and resources
[→ Sudan (intercommunal violence)]. The Ma'alia and al-
Rezeigat Abballa in East Darfur held a peace conference in
February without reaching an agreement. A peace deal between
Berti and Ziyadiya groups on July 13 did not prevent
further violence between the groups. In mid-August, the
security committee of South Darfur summoned the leaders
of the Fellata and Salamat tribes to establish a buffer zone
between them. On September 15, the leaders of al-Rezeigat
and Misseriya held a reconciliation conference intending to
bring an end to revenge attacks over cattle. In the context of
the war in Sudan's South Kordofan and Blue Nile, the government
and SPLM/A-North held several rounds of negotiations
without results [→ Sudan (SPLM/A-North / South Kordofan,
Blue Nile)]. In November, the parties held face-to-face negotiations
in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. While the government
was only willing to discuss the situation in South Kordofan
and Blue Nile, the SPLMA-North sought to address the crisis
in the whole country.
On March 23, Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Sudan's
President Omar al-Bashir and Ethiopia's Prime Minister Hailemariam
Desalegn signed an agreement approving the Grand
Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). All three parties signed a
new framework on December 29 although the other parties
opposed Ethiopia's plan to store water inside the dam for five
years [→ Ethiopia Egypt, Sudan (GERD)]. In South Sudan, a
peace agreement was reached between the government and
several militant groups such as the SPLM/A-in-Opposition
in August. The agreement entailed a demilitarization of the
capital Juba and a shared control of oil fields [→ South Sudan
(SPLM/A-in-Opposition)].
The Central African Republic saw intensified efforts by all
parties to end the war between ex-Séléka and Anti-Balaka
groups [→ Central African Republic (Anti-Balaka ex-Séléka)].
While ex-Séléka leader Michel Djotodia and Anti-Balaka representative
Joachim Kokate agreed on a ceasefire after
negotiations in Nairobi, Kenya, in January and April, the
transitional government and other groups rejected the deal.
In May, an inclusive peace forum was held in the capital
Bangui, leading to an agreement on the terms of the upcoming
general elections, disarmament, demobilization, and
reintegration as well as decentralization and judicial reform.
On December 16, the Somali clans Hawadle and Surre signed
a peace deal including a ceasefire and demilitarized zones [→
Somalia (Hawadle Surre / Hiiraan)]. In Mozambique, peace
talks between the government and RENAMO continued. On
December 21, RENAMO called for international mediators
to lead the negotiations and blamed national mediators for
the failure of the talks with the government [→ Mozambique
(RENAMO)].
In the DR Congo, two attempts by the government and FRPI
in January and May to negotiate an integration of the armed
group into the military failed [→ DR Congo (Ituri militias)].
Negotiations between the government and the opposition
concerning a potential third term for President Joseph Kabila
started in November with the assistance of UN representative
Said Djinnit [→ DR Congo (opposition)]. In Mali, a peace
agreement between the government and the Platform as well
as the CMA was reached in May and June, respectively [→Mali
(HCUA, MNLA et al. / Azawad)]. Also in Mali, the leaders of the
Imghad and Ifoghas Tuareg tribes signed a peace agreement
on October 9 [→ Mali (inter-militant rivalry / northern Mali)].
After the Burundian opposition had rejected UN-appointed
mediator Djinnit and the government had opposed Djinnit's
successor Abdoulaye Bathily, the East African Community
appointed Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni mediator on
July 6. The talks started on July 14 but were suspended the
next day.
MIDDLE EAST AND MAGHREB
Most negotiations in the Middle East and Maghreb were observed
in the Yemen, concerning the national power conflict
with the al-Houthis. In February, al-Houthis dissolved the
parliament after the National Dialogue Conference failed to
provide a political solution to the conflict. The international
community repeatedly attempted to mediate between the
conflict parties. In November, delegates of the al-Houthis,
the Hadi-government, and the Saudi-led coalition met in
Oman to prepare for peace talks. The talks started in Geneva,
Switzerland, on December 15, accompanied by a seven-day
ceasefire. They stopped on December 17, after al-Houthis
had refused to release several high-profile PoWs. The negotiations
ended on December 20 with an agreement to resume
talks in January 2016 [→ Yemen, Saudi Arabia (al-Houthi)].
In Syria, the government and opposition fighters agreed on a
conditional truce on December 2, permitting anti-government
forces to leave safely. In the following days, hundreds of
people were evacuated from al-Waer neighborhood of Homs
city [→ Syria (opposition)]. The so-called Islamic State (IS)
left southern Damascus after reaching an agreement with the
government to retreat to al-Raqqa [→ Syria, Iraq et al. (IS)].
The peace talks between the Turkish government and the
Kurdish PKK came to an end after violence had intensified
significantly in the second half of the year [→ Turkey (PKK)]. In
the last week of August, increasing tensions between Islamist
groups and al-Fatah culminated in intense fighting in the
Palestinian refugee camp Ain al-Hilweh in Lebanon. Several
people were killed, scores wounded, and about 3,000 fled to
the nearby city of Sidon before the factions reached a stable
ceasefire agreement.
A breakthrough was reached with the final agreement on
Iran's nuclear program on July 14, in which Iran had made
major technical concessions to the P5+1/E3+3 group regarding
the function of its civilian nuclear program in exchange
for moderate sanctions relief [→ Iran USA, EU (nuclear
program)]. In July, Taliban members and the newly-formed
government held peace talks in Pakistan with international
participation [→ Afghanistan (Taliban et al.)]. Negotiations
stopped after the public announcement of Mullah Omar's
death on July 29.
ASIA AND OCEANIA
Most negotiations in Asia and Oceania were observed in
India. Concerning the conflict over the secession of various
areas of Assam and West Bengal states, the pro-talk United
Liberation Front of Assam Independent (ULFA-I) faction con-
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