ConflictBarometer_2015
ConflictBarometer_2015
ConflictBarometer_2015
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA<br />
Transition Council (NTC) adopted a new electoral code, banning<br />
supporters of Compaoré from running in the presidential<br />
elections. In response, CDP and other parties withdrew from<br />
the NTC to protest against the decision. Tensions between<br />
RSP and Zida revived when the military arrested three RSP<br />
members on June 29 charged with involvement in a planned<br />
coup. Interim President Michel Kafando reached a compromise<br />
between both sides on July 16, taking over the defense<br />
portfolio.<br />
In reaction to a report of the Reconciliation Commission<br />
recommending the RSP's dissolution, RSP members led by<br />
Compaoré affiliate General Gilbert Diendéré staged a coup<br />
on September 16, storming a cabinet meeting and abducting<br />
Zida and Kafando. The following day, Diendéré declared<br />
himself president. Subsequently, hundreds of thousands<br />
of protesters took to the streets of the capital, demanding<br />
the interim government's return. RSP dispersed the demonstrations<br />
using live ammunition, killing at least eleven and<br />
injuring more than 270. On September 21, the military entered<br />
Ouagadougou and issued an ultimatum demanding the<br />
RSP's surrender and disarmament. This was refused by Diendéré.<br />
After ECOWAS-mediated peace talks on September<br />
22, the RSP agreed to step down and to return to the barracks.<br />
Two days later, Kafando was reinstated as interim president.<br />
On September 26, the interim government dissolved the RSP,<br />
imposing asset freezes on alleged coup supporters and establishing<br />
an investigation commission. On October 1, Diendéré<br />
surrendered and was arrested charged with crimes against<br />
humanity, attack on state security, and treason. Furthermore,<br />
on October 10, the investigation commission accused<br />
Diendéré and Djibril Bassolé, former foreign minister under<br />
Compaoré, of colluding with Islamist groups to destabilize the<br />
country. Four days later, the interim government rescheduled<br />
presidential elections for November 29. With 53.49 percent<br />
of the votes, Roch Kaboré, former prime minister and candidate<br />
of the People's Movement for Progress (MPP), won the<br />
presidential elections.<br />
On November 12, the leaked recording of a conversation between<br />
Bassolé and Côte d'Ivoire National Assembly Speaker<br />
Guillaume Soro held in mid-September revealed an alleged<br />
plan to stage further attacks in Burkina Faso in order to prevent<br />
the coup's looming failure.<br />
On December 4, judicial authorities issued an international<br />
arrest warrant against Compaoré charging him with the involvement<br />
in the murder of his predecessor Thomas Sankara.<br />
Two days later, Diendéré was indicted on the same charges.<br />
Zida stated on December 27 that 20 RSP members had been<br />
arrested for plotting to free Diendéré and Bassolé from prison.<br />
ats<br />
BURUNDI (OPPOSITION)<br />
Intensity: 4 | Change: | Start: 2006<br />
Conflict parties:<br />
Conflict items:<br />
ADC-Ikibiri et al. vs. government<br />
national power<br />
The national power conflict between opposition parties<br />
primarily organized under the Democratic Alliance for the<br />
Change-Ikibiri (ADC-Ikibiri) and the government led by President<br />
Pierre Nkurunziza's National Council for the Defense of<br />
Democracy (CNDD-FDD) escalated to a limited war. Throughout<br />
the year, violence left at least 300 people dead, hundreds<br />
injured, and more than 230,000 displaced. Furthermore, security<br />
forces arrested several hundred opposition members.<br />
The alliance ADC-Ikibiri comprised opposition parties such<br />
as Union for National Progress (UPRONA), Movement for Solidarity<br />
and Democracy (MSD), Front for Democracy in Burundi<br />
(FRODEBU), National Forces of Liberation (FNL), Union for<br />
Peace and Democracy (UDP), and Hope of the Burundians.<br />
The Hutu-dominated CNDD-FDD was supported by its youth<br />
wing Imbonerakure.<br />
The conflict revolved around the question whether or not<br />
President Pierre Nkurunziza was allowed to run for a third<br />
term and intensified in the run-up of parliamentary and<br />
presidential elections in June and July. While the 2005<br />
constitution limited presidential terms to two, parts of the<br />
government claimed that the first term between 2005 and<br />
2010 did not count since Nkurunziza was appointed by<br />
parliament and not elected. In contrast, opposition members<br />
insisted that he had already served two terms. Ahead of the<br />
elections, different national and international actors such as<br />
the Civil Society Organization Forum, the National Council<br />
of Roman Catholic Bishops, and UN Secretary-General Ban<br />
Ki-Moon expressed their opposition against a third term of<br />
Nkurunziza. Police and military stakeholders were divided<br />
over this issue. While the chief of police expressed his<br />
readiness to support the president with force, the minister of<br />
defense underlined the neutrality of the army.<br />
On March 20, more than 70 CNDD-FDD members signed a<br />
petition urging Nkurunziza not to run. About 1,000 opposition<br />
members protested in the capital Bujumbura on April 17<br />
against a third term. After some protesters threw stones, the<br />
police responded with tear gas and water cannons. At least<br />
two policemen were injured, 65 protesters were arrested<br />
and charged with participating in an armed insurrection. On<br />
April 25, Pascal Nyabenda, head of CNDD-FDD, announced<br />
that Nkurunziza was chosen as presidential candidate for the<br />
party. The opposition called for a mass demonstration the<br />
next day. The rally turned violent when protesters threw<br />
stones and lit tires, while the police responded with tear gas<br />
and water cannons and fired live ammunition in the air. Two<br />
protesters were killed and five injured. In the following night,<br />
two more people were killed by Imbonerakure. In a press<br />
statement on April 26, the chairperson of the AU, Dlamini<br />
Zuma, ''called on all stakeholders to strictly respect the 2000<br />
Arusha Agreement, the constitution, and the electoral law.''<br />
On April 27, the government banned nationwide broadcasts<br />
by Burundi's main independent radio stations and deployed<br />
the army to Bujumbura. Three days later, social networks,<br />
including Twitter and Facebook, were shut down and Imbonerakure<br />
were reported to mark houses of those opposing a<br />
third term. On May 5, the Constitutional Court allowed Nkurunziza<br />
to run for a third term, arguing that he was appointed<br />
in 2005 and not elected. One day before, the court's vice<br />
president, Sylvère Nimpagaritse, had fled to Rwanda, stating<br />
that judges had come under enormous pressure to decide<br />
in favor of a third term. On May 11, the former Burundian<br />
presidents Jean-Baptiste Bagaza, Pierre Buyoya, Sylvestre<br />
Ntibantunganya, and Domitien Ndayizeye the former two<br />
being Tutsi, the latter two Hutu addressed the East African<br />
Community (EAC) in a letter, stating that they regarded Nkurunziza's<br />
bid as unconstitutional.<br />
Internal military divisions culminated in an attempted coup<br />
d'état on May 13 by Major General Godefroid Niyombare.<br />
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