SHAPING THE FUTURE HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS CAN POWER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

5. TAPPING
THE HUMAN DYNAMISM IN CITIES
Rapid urbanization is transforming Asia-Pacific.
Lured by the promise of better jobs and higher
incomes, as well as quality education and health
care, people across the region are on the move
from the countryside to new lives in cities. Natural
population growth, expanded urban boundaries
and urban-centred development strategies also
bump up the numbers. In Asia-Pacific, 47 percent
of people today live in urban areas; their share will
swell to an estimated 62 percent by 2050. 1
Demographic transition and human development—
and the links between the two—have profound
ties to urbanization, as causes and consequences.
Urbanization has long been seen as a key factor in
the sharp fertility decline that triggers demographic
transition. As transition builds on human development
gains to provide a larger workforce, it can in turn
dramatically accelerate urbanization, with people
coming to cities in search of jobs that can only be
found there. Cities also offer improved quality of
housing, health systems, education and transportation.
People have opportunities to save more
and invest in productive activities in urban areas.
The international community has recognized the
importance of planning and managing urbanization,
most recently in Agenda 2030. It emphasizes that
cities will be vital for achieving the Sustainable
Development Goals, with the 11th goal calling on
countries to integrate urbanization in national development
strategies. The 2012 Rio+20 Summit
outcome document states that “...if they are well
planned and developed, including through integrated
planning and management approaches, cities can
promote economically, socially and environmentally
sustainable societies.” 2
Asia-Pacific’s future will be defined by how it manages
its cities, given their growth rates. Diverse
situations mean that there will be no one-size-fits-all
solution. But as a general principle, countries that
manage their cities well can look forward to attaining
higher and more inclusive human development, and
to making the most of the demographic dividend.
Throughout history, cities have been centres of
learning, culture, art, medical progress, innovation
and productivity. Urbanization is not without complex
challenges, however. In the midst of explosive growth,
the pressure is on to provide enough decent jobs
and extend the reach of essential services. In the
coming years, many cities will also need to be at
the forefront of national efforts to plan for ageing
societies; ideally, they will have prepared by building
on dividends afforded by earlier stages of transition.
The consequences of unplanned growth are likely
to be severe, leading to increasingly unequal cities
with high rates of poverty and crime.
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