SHAPING THE FUTURE HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS CAN POWER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

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TABLE 1.6: Demographic dividends fluctuate over time, but add up to a powerful impact on growth (%) Source: Based on Mason 2015. TABLE 1.7: Demographic dividends will continue to pay off in the coming decades (%) Source: Based on Mason 2015. 42
BOX 1.5: Japan’s first and second demographic dividends Japan was the first Asian country to experience fertility decline and dramatic increases in life expectancy (Figure 1.16). In the 1950s, 1960s and to a lesser extent the 1970s, Japan enjoyed a first demographic dividend equal to about half a percentage point of economic growth, while the second dividend added about 1 percentage point. By the 1980s, the first dividend phase was over, but the second dividend continued to favour economic growth, adding between 1 and 1.5 percentage points. By 2000, the first dividend had turned negative but was still balanced by the second dividend, indicating a modest net contribution to economic growth. FIGURE 1.16: Japan’s negative first dividend is balanced by a positive second dividend Source: Based on Mason 2015. HISTORIC CHANGES, LIMITED TIME Asia-Pacific is a vast region, diverse in its human development and demographic profile. But three broad, common patterns are evident. First, the region is experiencing sweeping demographic changes. Second, this is happening at a historically rapid pace—and it will not last forever. Finally, while East Asia has already reached a relatively advanced stage in its demographic transition, and thus needs to prepare for an ageing population, other subregions have a few decades to leverage potential dividends. Many Asia-Pacific countries are currently in the middle stages of change. Demographic shifts have far-reaching implications across all elements of human development. At the same time, appropriate policy choices and consistent investments in human development are critical to make the most of the demographic window of opportunity. If countries plan for the transition, build human capabilities, encourage creativity and innovation to flourish, and ensure the process is guided by mechanisms for participation and accountability, individuals and societies as a whole can end up better educated, healthier and wealthier. Lessons from one setting are hardly likely to be fully effective in others. There is little scope for a uniform set of recommendations to move forward. Each country needs to study its demographic trends, and their causes and consequences, with reference to their development goals. They must identify problems and take corrective actions accordingly. Political will to do this is crucial, particularly to steer the demographic dividend in inclusive ways that benefit all people, now and for generations to come. There is no one-sizefits-all strategy; each country needs to study its demographic trends and take actions accordingly 43
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ASIA-PACIFIC HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPO
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ASIA-PACIFIC HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPO
Page 5 and 6: FOREWORD We live in times of great
Page 7 and 8: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Asia-Pacific H
Page 9 and 10: Table of Contents Foreword iii Pref
Page 11 and 12: 1.15 Population age-composition is
Page 13 and 14: Acronyms ADB Asian Development Bank
Page 15 and 16: Overview SHAPING THE FUTURE: HOW CH
Page 17 and 18: HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IN ASIA-PACIFIC:
Page 19 and 20: FIGURE 2: Wealthier countries tend
Page 21 and 22: a strong emphasis on protecting wor
Page 23 and 24: could provide job matching assistan
Page 25 and 26: Asia-Pacific leave the workforce at
Page 27 and 28: WHAT’S AHEAD IN THIS REPORT This
Page 29: Chapter 1 HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS
Page 32 and 33: sustainable, reaching everyone whil
Page 34 and 35: FIGURE 1.1: The Human Development I
Page 36 and 37: TABLE 1.1: Asia-Pacific still has l
Page 38 and 39: married couples to have children, a
Page 40 and 41: FIGURE 1.5: Population pyramids in
Page 42 and 43: FIGURE 1.8: The median age is high
Page 44 and 45: FIGURE 1.10: Disparities in fertili
Page 46 and 47: Improved overall human development
Page 48 and 49: TABLE 1.5: Countries in Asia-Pacifi
Page 50 and 51: “When relatively large generation
Page 52 and 53: 38 Having fewer dependents on worki
Page 54 and 55: 40 In developed Asia- Pacific, the
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Page 61 and 62: 2. MORE PEOPLE AT WORK: THE FOUNDAT
Page 63 and 64: encouraged labour-intensive industr
Page 65 and 66: FIGURE 2.3: Peaks within subregions
Page 67 and 68: A DEMOGRAPHIC RETURN FOR HUMAN DEVE
Page 69 and 70: BOX 2.1: Women bear a larger burden
Page 71 and 72: FIGURE 2.8: Growth in labour produc
Page 73 and 74: WHAT’S BEEN LEARNED IN CHINA, JAP
Page 75 and 76: FIGURE 2.13: Japan is past its work
Page 77 and 78: FIGURE 2.15: Thailand still has tim
Page 79 and 80: make this a key aim of national dev
Page 81 and 82: investment climate, as well as enco
Page 83 and 84: TABLE 2.4: Shares of workers in the
Page 85 and 86: Even before leaving home, migrant w
Page 87 and 88: Promote health and safety at work:
Page 89 and 90: BOX 2.8: Malaysia transforms an ind
Page 91 and 92: of resilient infrastructure are joi
Page 93: Chapter 3 NURTURING CHILDREN, UNLOC
Page 96 and 97: Asia-Pacific is home to 1.7 billion
Page 98 and 99: Commendable progress in education m
Page 100 and 101: Quality primary education mitigates
Page 102 and 103: In most Asia-Pacific countries, sec
Page 104 and 105: Strong tertiary education is a buil
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FIGURE 3.3: Access to tertiary educ
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94 TABLE 3.9: Youth illiteracy has
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TABLE 3.11: Child mortality rates b
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BOX 3.7: Malnutrition and disabilit
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Despite social and economic progres
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FIGURE 3.8: The share of youth who
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104 Young migrants are highly vulne
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as an important challenge. But they
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TABLE 3.15: Some countries with lar
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Immunization saves children’s liv
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BOX 3.10: Germany’s vocational tr
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BOX 3.12: Partnering with youth in
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116
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4. AGEING SOCIETIES: NEW OPPORTUNIT
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FIGURE 4.1: Asia-Pacific is one of
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TABLE 4.1: East Asia is the oldest
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BOX 4.2: Responses to poverty among
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BOX 4.3: A plan of action for older
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FIGURE 4.9: Per capita health-care
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BOX 4.5: China moves towards univer
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TABLE 4.3: Social pensions are an i
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FIGURE 4.12: Pension replacement ra
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BOX 4.7: Increasing links between p
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cupy space in some public buildings
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ment bodies, encourage regular inte
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BOX 4.9: Ageing countries begin enc
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help coordinate the work of other g
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for older people. Many advanced cou
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action. Free public transport, and
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Chapter 5 TAPPING THE HUMAN DYNAMIS
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In the last 30 years, Asia-Pacific
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FIGURE 5.3: Even countries with few
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FIGURE 5.6: Most people will contin
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160 Social, cultural and economic i
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The benefits of urbanization have n
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BOX 5.2: Pioneering urban poverty r
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vehicles on the road. Beijing issue
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Municipal governments in Asia-Pacif
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TABLE 5.4: Revenue mobilization opt
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172 City governments need to have t
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Investing in essential infrastructu
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176 in East Asian cities, and occur
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BOX 5.9: The Republic of Korea emba
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180
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6. AN AGENDA FOR ACTION: SHAPING TH
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Development Report argues, decent w
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with ministries overseeing youth, e
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This is an urgent priority in a reg
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SUSTAINING HUMAN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
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plan automatically enrols people in
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BOX 6.3: Developing Delhi’s metro
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End Notes CHAPTER 1 1. UNFPA 2014b.
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63. WHO 2014b. 64. UNFPA 2012. 65.
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produces 40 percent of total econom
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206 The Asia Foundation. 2013. “T
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208 CODI (Community Organizations D
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210 Global Migration Group. 2014.
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212 Janwani. 2010. “Annual Report
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214 ———. 2012a. OECD Employme
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216 ———. 2011. “Follow-up t
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218 York. [www.unfpa.org/sites/defa
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———. 2012c. Malaysia Economic
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tables include the Caribbean countr
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TABLE 2: Trends in the Human Develo
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TABLE 4: Gender Inequality Index 22
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TABLE 6: Trends in income poverty,
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TABLE 8: Fertility rate and crude d
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TABLE 10: Trends and share of child
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TABLE 12: Trends and share of young
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TABLE 14: Trends and share of older
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TABLE 16: Education indicators and
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TABLE 17: Health indicators 242
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TABLE 18: Employment and unemployme
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TABLE 19: International trade, fina
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ABOUT ASIA-PACIFIC HUMAN DEVELOPMEN
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