SHAPING THE FUTURE HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS CAN POWER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

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Asia-Pacific is home to 1.7 billion young people under the age of 25 HOME TO MORE THAN HALF <strong>THE</strong> WORLD’S CHILDREN AND YOUTH Globally, the number of people below the age of 25 increased from 1.33 billion in 1950 to 3.11 billion in 2015 (Figure 3.1), but the rate of expansion has declined since 1990. By 2050, the number will increase to only about 3.4 billion. Young people’s share of total population rose from 53 percent in 1950 to 56 percent in 1975, slipping since to 42 percent in 2015. It is projected to decline further to 35 percent by 2050 (Figure 3.2). Asia-Pacific today has 1.7 billion young people under age 25, with 990 million children under age 15, and 670 million youth aged 15-24. More than half the young people alive in the world can be found in the region. Its share of young people within its own population, however, is lower than all other developing regions, at 40 percent, and will likely drop to 30 percent by 2050. By 2065, since Africa’s fertility rates will likely remain high, the number of young people there will exceed that of Asia-Pacific for the first time in recent history. The number of young people has declined in Asia-Pacific since 2005. In East Asia, it has fallen since 1990, starting as early as 1955 in Japan and 1985 in the Republic of Korea. Decreases have been well underway in the Islamic Republic of Iran, Myanmar and Viet Nam since 2000, and Bangladesh and Malaysia since 2010. South Asia will reach its peak of young people around 2025, so prioritizing the needs of children and youth are of foremost importance. Oceania is still relatively young, with positive growth of the young population projected to about 2050. The share of young people in Asia-Pacific reached a peak of 59 percent in the early 1970s, before beginning a descent to 40 percent in 2015. Shares vary by subregion, from 48 percent in South Asia to 30 percent in East Asia, with the latter expected to fall to 23 percent by 2050. 4 It will then rank lowest among the world’s regions, including Europe and North America. All Asia-Pacific subregions will be below the world average of 35 percent by 2050, a major policy concern, indicating a shrinking pool of workers and an ageing population (Figure 3.2). In nine countries or territories, young people are currently less than a third of the total population—Australia; China; Hong Kong, China (SAR); Japan; Macau, China (SAR); Republic of Korea; Singapore; Taiwan Province of China and Thailand. For 14 other countries, the share tops 50 percent—Afghanistan, Cambodia, Federated States of Micronesia, Kiribati, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Nepal, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, Tonga and Vanuatu. The second group are on the cusp of the demographic BOX 3.1: Who are the young? There is no universal definition of the ‘young’ or ‘youth’, as these terms usually refer to a more fluid category than a fixed age group. A young population is commonly defined as one with a relatively high proportion of children, adolescents and young adults. Youth is usually understood as the period between the age of leaving compulsory education and finding first employment. Different countries and organizations, however, assign diverse meanings to these concepts. The United Nations defines ‘youth’ as persons between 15 and 24 years of age. Several Asia-Pacific countries have alternative definitions—India, for example, in its 2014 National Youth Policy, defines youth as those between 15 and 29 years of age. Since varying terms make it difficult to effectively discuss challenges and opportunities related to youth across countries, this report generally adopts the United Nations definition of young people as those comprising ages 0 to 24. They fall in two sub-groups: namely, children aged 0 to 14 and youth aged 15 to 24. 82 Source: UNESCO 1985.
transition. Only Timor-Leste’s share will remain relatively high, at more than 50 percent, in 2050. Many countries with the largest portions of youth today are among the poorest nations. Demographic transition could provide critical impetus for human development, but depends largely on expanding constrained capacities to provide basic health and education services, and decent jobs and livelihoods. FIGURE 3.1: The world has a record number of young people, but the rate of growth has slowed Source: Based on UN DESA 2015a. FIGURE 3.2: The share of young people in total population is on the decline Source: Based on UN DESA 2015a. 83
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ASIA-PACIFIC HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPO
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ASIA-PACIFIC HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPO
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FOREWORD We live in times of great
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Asia-Pacific H
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Table of Contents Foreword iii Pref
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1.15 Population age-composition is
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Acronyms ADB Asian Development Bank
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Overview SHAPING THE FUTURE: HOW CH
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HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IN ASIA-PACIFIC:
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FIGURE 2: Wealthier countries tend
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a strong emphasis on protecting wor
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could provide job matching assistan
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Asia-Pacific leave the workforce at
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WHAT’S AHEAD IN THIS REPORT This
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Chapter 1 HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS
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sustainable, reaching everyone whil
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FIGURE 1.1: The Human Development I
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TABLE 1.1: Asia-Pacific still has l
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married couples to have children, a
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FIGURE 1.5: Population pyramids in
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FIGURE 1.8: The median age is high
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FIGURE 1.10: Disparities in fertili
Page 46 and 47: Improved overall human development
Page 48 and 49: TABLE 1.5: Countries in Asia-Pacifi
Page 50 and 51: “When relatively large generation
Page 52 and 53: 38 Having fewer dependents on worki
Page 54 and 55: 40 In developed Asia- Pacific, the
Page 56 and 57: TABLE 1.6: Demographic dividends fl
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Page 61 and 62: 2. MORE PEOPLE AT WORK: THE FOUNDAT
Page 63 and 64: encouraged labour-intensive industr
Page 65 and 66: FIGURE 2.3: Peaks within subregions
Page 67 and 68: A DEMOGRAPHIC RETURN FOR HUMAN DEVE
Page 69 and 70: BOX 2.1: Women bear a larger burden
Page 71 and 72: FIGURE 2.8: Growth in labour produc
Page 73 and 74: WHAT’S BEEN LEARNED IN CHINA, JAP
Page 75 and 76: FIGURE 2.13: Japan is past its work
Page 77 and 78: FIGURE 2.15: Thailand still has tim
Page 79 and 80: make this a key aim of national dev
Page 81 and 82: investment climate, as well as enco
Page 83 and 84: TABLE 2.4: Shares of workers in the
Page 85 and 86: Even before leaving home, migrant w
Page 87 and 88: Promote health and safety at work:
Page 89 and 90: BOX 2.8: Malaysia transforms an ind
Page 91 and 92: of resilient infrastructure are joi
Page 93: Chapter 3 NURTURING CHILDREN, UNLOC
Page 98 and 99: Commendable progress in education m
Page 100 and 101: Quality primary education mitigates
Page 102 and 103: In most Asia-Pacific countries, sec
Page 104 and 105: Strong tertiary education is a buil
Page 106 and 107: FIGURE 3.3: Access to tertiary educ
Page 108 and 109: 94 TABLE 3.9: Youth illiteracy has
Page 110 and 111: TABLE 3.11: Child mortality rates b
Page 112 and 113: BOX 3.7: Malnutrition and disabilit
Page 114 and 115: Despite social and economic progres
Page 116 and 117: FIGURE 3.8: The share of youth who
Page 118 and 119: 104 Young migrants are highly vulne
Page 120 and 121: as an important challenge. But they
Page 122 and 123: TABLE 3.15: Some countries with lar
Page 124 and 125: Immunization saves children’s liv
Page 126 and 127: BOX 3.10: Germany’s vocational tr
Page 128 and 129: BOX 3.12: Partnering with youth in
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Page 133 and 134: 4. AGEING SOCIETIES: NEW OPPORTUNIT
Page 135 and 136: FIGURE 4.1: Asia-Pacific is one of
Page 137 and 138: TABLE 4.1: East Asia is the oldest
Page 139 and 140: BOX 4.2: Responses to poverty among
Page 141 and 142: BOX 4.3: A plan of action for older
Page 143 and 144: FIGURE 4.9: Per capita health-care
Page 145 and 146: BOX 4.5: China moves towards univer
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TABLE 4.3: Social pensions are an i
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FIGURE 4.12: Pension replacement ra
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BOX 4.7: Increasing links between p
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cupy space in some public buildings
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ment bodies, encourage regular inte
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BOX 4.9: Ageing countries begin enc
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help coordinate the work of other g
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for older people. Many advanced cou
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action. Free public transport, and
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Chapter 5 TAPPING THE HUMAN DYNAMIS
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In the last 30 years, Asia-Pacific
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FIGURE 5.3: Even countries with few
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FIGURE 5.6: Most people will contin
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160 Social, cultural and economic i
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The benefits of urbanization have n
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BOX 5.2: Pioneering urban poverty r
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vehicles on the road. Beijing issue
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Municipal governments in Asia-Pacif
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TABLE 5.4: Revenue mobilization opt
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172 City governments need to have t
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Investing in essential infrastructu
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176 in East Asian cities, and occur
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BOX 5.9: The Republic of Korea emba
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180
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6. AN AGENDA FOR ACTION: SHAPING TH
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Development Report argues, decent w
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with ministries overseeing youth, e
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This is an urgent priority in a reg
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SUSTAINING HUMAN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
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plan automatically enrols people in
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BOX 6.3: Developing Delhi’s metro
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End Notes CHAPTER 1 1. UNFPA 2014b.
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63. WHO 2014b. 64. UNFPA 2012. 65.
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produces 40 percent of total econom
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206 The Asia Foundation. 2013. “T
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208 CODI (Community Organizations D
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210 Global Migration Group. 2014.
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212 Janwani. 2010. “Annual Report
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214 ———. 2012a. OECD Employme
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216 ———. 2011. “Follow-up t
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218 York. [www.unfpa.org/sites/defa
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———. 2012c. Malaysia Economic
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tables include the Caribbean countr
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224
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TABLE 2: Trends in the Human Develo
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TABLE 4: Gender Inequality Index 22
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TABLE 6: Trends in income poverty,
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TABLE 8: Fertility rate and crude d
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TABLE 10: Trends and share of child
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TABLE 12: Trends and share of young
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TABLE 14: Trends and share of older
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TABLE 16: Education indicators and
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TABLE 17: Health indicators 242
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TABLE 18: Employment and unemployme
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TABLE 19: International trade, fina
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ABOUT ASIA-PACIFIC HUMAN DEVELOPMEN
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SHAPING THE FUTURE HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS CAN POWER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

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