SHAPING THE FUTURE HOW CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS CAN POWER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT

Better measurement
and analysis could
capture substantial
contributions from the
unpaid work of women
and older people
186
to share experiences, including to overcome
obstacles and capitalize on opportunities.
Collect more and better data. While the importance
of demographic transition and potential
dividends is increasingly endorsed, many
Asia-Pacific countries still do not have adequate
data to gauge and manage the process. The collection
of high-quality data needs to be geared
towards monitoring the demographic profile
overall, as well as the impacts of public policy
measures aimed at youth, workers, older people
and migrants, and related issues such as urbanization.
This would be consistent with—and
might build on—the data revolution called for
as part of the Sustainable Development Goals.
Regional and national Human Development
Reports and reports on progress towards the
goals could become important tools for additional
data gathering and analysis.
Better measurement and more systematic
analysis could define the significant contributions
of unpaid work to human well-being as
well as to the potential size of the demographic
dividend. Governments have already agreed in
Agenda 2030 to recognize and value unpaid care
and domestic work, including through collecting
stronger data on the proportion of time spent
on unpaid domestic and care work by sex, age
and location.
MAKING THE MOST
OF DEMOGRAPHIC
OPPORTUNITIES
For most Asia-Pacific countries, the rapid growth
of working-age populations and corresponding
decline in dependent populations presents incredible
possibilities. But countries on the verge
of demographic transition must manage well to
make the most of a potential demographic windfall.
They will need to develop plans to build a
stronger and healthier economy, and improve job
prospects and overall well-being for a growing
number of workers. Measures may be needed to
mitigate adverse effects from underemployment
and informal work, which have grown in the
region, and ensure that when people choose to
migrate, the process is a safe one.
Prioritize job creation in national development
strategies. Decent and productive work is fundamental
to human development, as emphasized
in Agenda 2030, which calls for full and
productive employment and decent work for all.
Employment growth has fallen behind economic
growth in Asia-Pacific, however, underscoring
the urgency of reinvigorating job growth. To
accommodate changes in age- and sex-specific
population and labour force participation rates
and achieve unemployment rates at or below
4 percent for adults and at or below 8 percent
for youth, approximately 300 million new jobs
will be needed across Asia-Pacific from 2010
to 2030. 5 In South Asia, where poor quality
employment is already pervasive, the challenges
will be severe as the number of jobs that will
need to be created from 2010 to 2030 is much
higher at 238 million than the number of jobs
created at 198 million from 1990 to 2010. 6
To create more—and decent—employment,
governments will need to focus on encouraging
private sector development as the backbone of
economies. This could entail supporting new
enterprises, simplifying business regulations,
increasing trade and market access, and probably
revisiting tax codes. Targeted growth is needed
in sectors yielding high numbers of jobs as well
as those that improve productivity and allow
better educated people to find jobs matching
their skills. The latter will be particularly important
in East Asia, South-east Asia and the
Pacific, where job creation needs will likely
be lower than they have been - at 62 million
from 2010 to 2030 compared to 221 million
from 1990 to 2010. 7 These countries now have
opportunities to create high skills jobs based on
the considerable investments they have made in
educating and training in the previous decades.
Stimulating pro-employment growth may
call for strengthening and implementing national
job creation plans. The mandate for these
should not lie only with the Ministry of Labour,
but with multiple ministries and departments,
including finance, labour, commerce, industrial
development, transportation, manufacturing,
agriculture, trade, youth and women. To promote
high-tech industries, for instance, the
labour ministry will need to work together